Roundabout #2
The Saints sizzle from wide positions, the Crows blink under the bright lights, and reviewing the preview.
I’m still experimenting with this format. It’ll naturally evolve over time as I figure out what works and doesn’t. But if you have ideas for how it could be improved, please let me know!
Hello, Dear Reader. I’m going to experiment with a slightly different format for this week’s Roundabout. First, I’ll quickly look back at my Round 2 preview and see if my tentative predictions about where the games would be won and lost were borne out by reality. Then I’ll dive into two specific themes that caught my eye: how the Saints attacked from wide positions (short version: very well!), and how the Crows played into the Cats’ hands.
To all those hoping I write a thousand words SLAMMING Essendon for their physical approach against Sydney, or weighing in with a HOT TAKE about the size of the crowd at the Richmond vs. Port Adelaide game, apologies. Maybe next time. (Not really.)
One more housekeeping item – I’m working on a deep dive about what’s currently ailing Collingwood. It will have graphs. This one will be only for paid subscribers, so please consider upgrading if you haven’t already! I’m planning to publish the piece over the Easter weekend. So, in other words, after the Pies have played at the Gabba on Thursday night. Hopefully they don’t win by 10 goals.
As always, please feel free to share your (polite, constructive) thoughts about the weekend’s game, or my work, down in the comments below or on social media. One Percenters is for the people!
Reviewing the preview
St. Kilda vs Collingwood
I wondered if Craig McRae would persist with the “kick more” strategy he flirted with over the pre-season. He didn’t. And it seems the experiment is over. In their three games to start the season, the Pies are choosing to kick with 59 percent of their disposals. That’s virtually identical to their final three Home & Away games of 2023, and clearly less than the 2023 finals, where they kicked 64.5 percent of the time.
Adelaide vs. Geelong
In a game which demonstrated that quantity is a poor substitute for quality, the Cats generated four more scoring shots despite 13 fewer inside-50s. Their defenders, led by Tom Stewart, regularly intercepted wayward forward entries by the Crows and then initiated counter-attacks down the wings. Geelong fans will be pleased that their two wins have come in very different circumstances. A week after the Cats did a great job stopping the Saints from entering 50, they did a good job preventing the Crows’ inside-50 entries from becoming scores.
North Melbourne vs. Fremantle
Not so much a game of two halves as a three game of three-eighths and five-eighths (catchy, huh). North caught the Dockers cold for the first quarter and a half under the Dome, capitalising on their clearance dominance (22 to 14) and making much better use of their intercept opportunities. Fremantle reeled them back in and the final scoreline suggests a comfortable win. But, for the second consecutive week, North showed that Northball is real.
Hawthorn vs. Melbourne
Yeah, this one played out about as I expected. The Hawks had a fair bit more of the ball, but were corralled into wide areas and simply couldn’t generate the quality entries (or speed of ball movement) needed to trouble Melbourne’s defence. The Dees, meanwhile, absolutely slaughtered the Hawks from clearances: a 38-23 disparity (including 14 centre clearances to just five) resulted in a +52 points from stoppage differential – almost all of the overall margin. Sam Mitchell will need to add “improve set-up at stoppages” to “improve goal-kicking” to his list of tasks for the week.
Sydney vs. Essendon
Between Peter Wright’s collision with Harry Cunningham, Tom Papley’s disapproving comments about the Bombers’ approach, and the torrent of discourse uncorked by both incidents, a good game of footy happened. Essendon, led ably by Zach Merrett, Archie Perkins and Will Setterfield, had more clearances – but the Swans were so much more damaging with ball in hand. That strength, combined with Essendon’s weakness in stopping their opponents’ transitions, was reflected on the scoreboard. The Swans generated 19 inside-50s from possession chains originating 100+ metres from their attacking goal, for 11 scoring shots.
Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast Suns
I wrote that if the Suns managed to control territory and create forward-50 stoppages, they had a good chance of winning. Well, they couldn’t – so they didn’t. If the game were solely decided by clearances, the Dogs would have won on points. But it was their ability to capitalise on intercepts that let them land an early knockout blow. A +36 points from intercept differential was the difference, and suggests Damien Hardwick has work to do improving the quality of his team’s forward pressure and transition defence.
Richmond vs. Port Adelaide
A good deal of the post-game discourse has centred on the decline of Richmond’s pressure game. I think the correct framing is rather that this was a game played between a side with established ball movement patterns and a side searching for their identity under a new coach. It was a neat natural experiment: Port had 112 possession chains (104 of which started outside their attacking 50), while the Tigers had 110 (107). Of those 104 times they started with the ball outside 50, Port went inside 60.6 percent of the time. The Tigers? 48.6. Not only did Port move the ball well, they resoundingly answered the two questions I posed: could they shackle Tom Lynch and Noah Balta, and could they could exploit Richmond’s deficiencies at half-back.
West Coast vs. GWS
A very good team beat a bad one. The Giants moved the ball like a hot knife through butter. The Eagles’ defence held up OK, but just couldn’t generate anywhere near enough attacking thrust. Not much more to say about this one.
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Saints sizzle from wide positions
In my season preview, I mentioned that the Saints like to advance the ball via the wings. That strategy served two purposes: it put the ball in the hands of their most talented ball users, and it helped protect their defence. Losing the ball out on the wing is much less dangerous than losing it in the centre square, because it lets your defensive structure tilt over to that side rather than needing to cover the entire width of the field. More guys covering less grass.
In 2023, St. Kilda used their ball movement primarily as a defensive tactic. Against Collingwood on Thursday night, we saw what it can do as an attacking weapon. The Saints had 55 inside-50 entries. Of those, just 15 originated from inside the centre square (this is a manual count, so it might be off by one or two). The rest came from the wings. It’s hardly a surprise, then, that nine of the Saints’ 14 goals came from the ball being delivered inside 50 from the wing.
In the first half, some of those entries were too slow or shallow, which allowed the likes of Darcy Moore to intercept. But in the third quarter, the Saints won control of the ball (+30 for disposals) and got the balance exactly right. Their opening four goals of the term all came from wide inside-50 entries. The first one isn’t really worth writing home about: Josh Battle took an intercept mark on the left wing, and bombed it long. Max King took a virtually uncontested mark in a crowd of bodies and nailed the set-shot. The next three goals, however, perfectly exemplified what Ross Lyon wants his team to do with the ball.
Collingwood looked likely to win a centre clearance, until Jack Sinclair smothered Jordan de Goey’s handball. The ball eventually found its way back to Sinclair at the Saints’ right defensive 50. His handball released Ryan Byrnes, who spotted Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera cruising by on his outside. NWM hammered it down the line where Liam Henry, somewhat surprisingly, outbodied Jeremy Howe. Rather than blazing away, Henry instead displayed all the skill of a surgeon to kick it to the advantage of Tim Membrey, who took a good mark in a nest of Pies – and slotted the resulting goal.
Here, a strong spoil from a Brayden Maynard long kick ended up in the hands of Mitchito Owens. He quickly dished it off to Marcus Windhager, who shrugged off Howe to once again find Wanganeen-Milera on the outside. Despite needing to break stride, NWM was able to carry the ball, even taking a bounce, and deliver a beautiful angled kick to Membrey outside 50. Membrey’s centring kick should have been marked by Steele Sidebottom, who instead opted to spoil only for it to end up with Jack Higgins, who kicked the easy goal. Yes, it took a defensive error for the goal to happen. But it was the Saints’ quick, precise ball movement that made the error more likely to occur in the first place.
The third goal in the sequence originated from a ball in dispute on Collingwood’s left half-forward flank. Zak Jones stood up in a de Goey tackle and dished off to Darcy Wilson, who found Byrnes, who found Josh Battle. Battle eked out a superb kick which Membrey marked right on the boundary. Collingwood’s midfielders are by this point caught ahead of the ball. Membrey popped a kick over the top to Jones. He, Windhager and Wilson created an overload on the right boundary. Wilson received Jones’ handball and found Max King with a perfectly-weighted kick. The big forward made no mistake.
There are a few things to note out of all of this. It wouldn’t be possible for the Saints to move the ball this cleanly without the likes of Wanganeen-Milera, Henry and the impressive first-year player Darcy Wilson. But it also wouldn’t be possible without the mobility and marking power of Max King and Tim Membrey. Both can push up the ground and get themselves involved in possession chains, and still have the stamina to be its final link. The other thing that stands out – especially for the second and third goals – is the speed of movement. Collingwood simply didn’t have time to set up properly. Their problems defending quick inside-50 entries this season have been noted. Ross Lyon paid attention. Perhaps the final thing I’ll mention is that it illustrates the way field dimensions can influence the game. The MCG is a full 26 metres wider than GMHBA Stadium (where the Saints played their first game of the year). Meanwhile, Marvel Stadium, where they’ll play 13 games in the Home & Away season, is in-between. At 129m wide, it’s 12m narrower than the ‘G, but 14m wider than GMHBA. Making his full use of his excellent wide players at Marvel will be an interesting puzzle for Ross Lyon to solve. But at the MCG, he – and his team – did it perfectly.
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The Crows blink under bright lights
For the first time in almost two years, Adelaide played a Friday night game. It didn’t go well. In front of a national audience, Matthew Nicks’ side played into an undermanned Geelong’s hands. The Cats are one of the best aerial teams around. They want opponents to pump the ball long to contests, ideally from wide starting positions. In order to achieve that, they try to deny their opponents the use of the corridor and force shallow entries. The Crows, on the other hand, want to create defensive-half chains which end up in the hands of their better ball users – guys like Jordan Dawson and Mitchell Hinge – who then deliver to leading forwards.
Two different approaches. One winner. On this occasion – it was Chris Scott’s wily old stagers. They successfully denied Adelaide the use of the corridor. And, rather than trying to weave their way through, too often the Crows opted to go around, bombing it either long down the wing or inside 50. It didn’t work. The mighty Tom Stewart, playing his 150th game, equalled the AFL record for intercept marks.
It was a bad night for the Crows and their coach, Matthew Nicks. Much has been made of his decision to assign Luke Pedlar the formidable task of playing on Stewart. That lasted less than a half, but it was seemingly enough to rattle the young forward’s confidence for the whole game. The Crows have also, understandably, been raked over the coals for the poor quality of their forward-50 entries, their stale midfield mix, and their wayward finishing. It’s hard to win games of footy when you hit the post from the top of the goal square. Ditto when your experienced half-back kicks it into the stands under no pressure.
I must be in the mood to add insult to injury – because I’d like to focus on another facet of the Crows’ game which didn’t work on Friday night: their repeated tendency to get sucked into ground and aerial contests, and allow Geelong clean exits.
Ground-level overcommitment
Lachie Murphy gets sucked in on the wing.
Brodie Smith… didn’t have the best game of his career.
Too many Crows ahead of the ball.
Aerial overcommitment
Keane gets pushed under the ball, while Hinge is in no-man’s land.
Walker and Fogarty spoil each other.
O’Brien and Hinge jump for the same ball.
Players make mistakes in the heat of battle. But watching the game, it was hard to miss how clear-minded the Cats were (they kicked 5.0 from centre clearances) and – on occasion – how rushed and frenetic the Crows were. There are other examples I didn’t list here. Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele took shots when a pass was a better option. Twice, Reilly O’Brien ended up receiving the final handball in a chain. The Crows’ skills and decision-making let them down a few too many times. Both are ultimately a function of the same traits: technique, composure, and coaching. I wrote in my season preview that the Crows’ fortunes in 2024 would be determined to a large extent by whether they could maintain their impressive forward efficiency. The early signs from 2024 aren’t exactly promising. They currently rank last for both marks per inside-50 and scores per inside-50 entry. They ranked fourth and first (by miles) respectively on those measures last season. It’s time to get the eyes down when delivering the ball inside 50.
Despite this, it’s not all doom and gloom. Adelaide still manufactured enough inside-50s and scoring opportunities to win the game. They more than doubled Geelong’s inside-50s in the second and fourth quarters. Nicks and his senior players will believe those issues are fixable. But improvement must come quickly. The Crows travel to Perth to play the Dockers on Friday night. Melbourne and Carlton then await.
Back on Thursday with the Round 1 preview.