Round 2 2024 preview

Things to know before you go.

Mar 21, 2024

Howdy, folks. Apologies for not delivering the post-Round 1 review this week. My day job had the temerity to demand my attention. I’m planning to resume normal service next week. As penance, here’s a bumper Round 2 preview, which will see six teams play their third game of the year, and two sit out with a bye. Thanks for the awesome scheduling, AFL!

St. Kilda vs. Collingwood

Thursday 21 March, 19.30 AEDT (MCG)

Spud’s Game – but the Pies’ worries. The Premiers have coughed and sputtered their way to a 0-2 start. And now, they face one of modern footy’s most frustrating challenges: unravelling the puzzle posed by Ross Lyon. This is the first time these sides will square off since their minor classic to close the inaugural Gather Round (a match I happened to watch most of while approximately 38,000 feet over the Indian Ocean). They’ve both changed since then. The Pies have lost the edge in contested possession differential which made them clearly the league’s best side through the first half of last season. And the Saints have had another 11 months of learning the intricate rhythms of Rossball.

Understandably, most of the focus will be on Collingwood. There’s been lots of attention paid to irrelevant things like “Premiership hangovers” and “superfluous in-game high-fives.” There’s been some focus on their poor execution and personnel deficiencies, most notably how the concussion-enforced absence of Nathan Murphy has deprived them of their best tall one-on-one defender. There’s been rather less attention paid to how Craig McRae appears to have changed up their style. As noted by a couple of people, including yours truly and Ricky Mangidis, Collingwood chose to kick the ball much more throughout the pre-season. The leading theory is that McRae was trying to anticipate how opposition teams would try to defend against his side. Although the stats from their first two Home & Away games have seen a reversion back to 2023 numbers (the Pies kicked with 60 percent of their disposals against the Swans, compared to 58.6 percent across last season), it’s interesting to see what they’ll try against St. Kilda.

I suspect the Saints will be more than happy if their opponents try to kick the ball more often. In fact, I suspect they’ll be relatively content with either approach. Because theirs probably won’t change. Last season, the Saints were bottom-three in the AFL for both disposals conceded and marks conceded. Chip it around, they said. It only gives us more time to set up in defence. The theme of the game is likely to involve the Pies trying to lure Saints out of position to create space in behind, and the Saints looking to resist at all costs. Keep an eye out for Max King, as well. He was happy to lead up the ground against the Cats, taking key grabs and giving his teammates a breather – and the chance to run past him into space, Pagan’s Paddock-style. If he’s up against an out-of-form Darcy Moore, he may well try the same tactic.

Adelaide vs. Geelong

Friday 22 March, 19.40 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)

It’s hard to imagine a more different match for the Crows after their narrow (but richly deserved) Round 1 defeat to the Suns. That game was played in wet, humid conditions against a Suns side that’s powerful in the contest and a work in progress almost everywhere else. The ball was like a block of ice, rendering the dynamic back-half football Adelaide played in 2023 virtually impossible (not that it stopped them from trying – oh no). On Friday, they’re back on their home deck. Bright lights, dry weather, and an opponent that excels between the 50-metre arcs and treats the ball like a friend.

The Cats won a tight game against the Saints in front of their partisan home crowd mostly by virtue of winning more use of the ball out of centre bounce, forcing more turnovers, and being more slightly efficient with their possession chains. The key stat in the game is that, despite having 18 more rebounds from their defensive 50 (52-34), the Saints had 19 fewer inside-50s. Call it knowing how to play the skinny, cigar-shaped GMHBA Stadium. Call it the absence of Jack Sinclair. Call it an inability to adapt to Geelong’s higher, more aggressive defensive position. Whatever you call it, the Saints huffed and puffed, but couldn’t blow the house down.

In order to win, the Crows, who at their best last year blew sides away with silky back-to-front transitions, will need to succeed where the Saints failed – and create enough pressure upfield to prevent the Cats’ tall forwards from out-marking their callow young defenders.

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Saturday 23 March, 13.45 AEDT (Marvel Stadium)

The 16th game of the season is also, unless I’ve made a boo-boo somewhere, the first at Marvel. North Melbourne were never going to beat the Giants in Sydney. Instead, Alastair Clarkson would have been looking closely to see how two facets of his young team’s game held up: how they coped with the Giants’ ball movement, and how they fared in attack. One out of two against a side that looks primed to feature in September ain’t bad. North were sliced apart – but they also landed some blows of their own. The number they’ll be happiest with is a +3 scores from stoppage differential – evidence that the likes of Luke Davies-Uniacke, Tom Powell and George Wardlaw can mix it with the bigger bodies in the GWS engine room. I also liked North’s willingness to play on forward of centre and catch out the Giants’ defence before it had a chance to set itself properly. It’s still very much a work in progress. But green shoots are much better than no shoots at all.

For Fremantle, this is a big banana skin after a brave win first up against the Lions. I wrote in my Round 1 preview that the Dockers’ strengths (accumulation and defensive structure) map well onto the Lions’ main weakness (turning the ball over). I’m pleased to say that reality did me a solid. Fremantle had the upper hand from stoppages, winning better-quality clearances and at a higher clip. But where the Dockers really excelled was in how they repelled one of the best attacks in the AFL. The Lions only managed to create a score 34 percent of the time they entered attacking 50, 15 percent down on their 2023 season average. As a result, Freo were able to rebound more than 82 percent of Brisbane’s inside-50 entries, compared to their 2023 average of a tick under 75 percent. The thought of having more possession chains would probably have given some Freo fans conniptions. But the Dockers held their nerve, kicking five goals from chains beginning more than 100 metres from their attacking goal.

Both teams will believe they can win (of course, North did win the last meeting). The Dockers lost three players to injury in Round 1. But I suspect this game will be decided by the quality (poor or otherwise) of the Dockers’ transitions out of their defensive 50.

Hawthorn vs. Melbourne

Saturday 23 March, 16.35 AEDT (MCG)

The Hawks did a fair few things right against the Bombers. They created more turnovers, generated more inside-50s, and were generally more efficient moving the ball up the field. 57 inside-50s from just 99 possession chains is an amazing result. What ultimately let the Hawks down was their performance forward of centre. 11.17 is a poor return. But that’s only half the story. If you look at their shotmap (the bottom section of this excellent match summary graphic) Hawthorn didn’t generate especially high-quality opportunities. If they’re to have any chance against the Demons, they’ll need a more efficient game from their forwards, and better delivery inside 50.

The Demons, meanwhile, dispatched the Bulldogs off the back of a superior performance inside both 50 metre arcs. Their defence feasted on the Dogs’ wayward entries, while their forwards shot the lights out in a way they only seem to do against this opponent. Structurally, they were able to deny the Dogs the centre corridor. Hawthorn will present a slightly different type of challenge. While the Dogs have gradually moved away from their handball-heavy style (more detail on that in their preview), the Hawks have instead fully embraced theirs, choosing to move the ball by running and handballing to players in space. Essendon noticed that. They kept the Hawks to just 138 handballs, their lowest return since Round 4 last year. I suspect that, in addition to extra goal-kicking practice, Sam Mitchell would have spent time this week focusing on how his players can generate more fluid possession chains. If he can, the Hawks have a chance. Otherwise, Melbourne’s clearance and defensive superiority is likely to tell.

Sydney vs. Essendon

Saturday 23 March, 19.30 AEDT (SCG)

Sydney put in the best performance of the season so far against Collingwood last Friday night. If they hadn’t put the cue in the rack midway through the final quarter, they could probably have won by 10 goals. The Swans turned the Pies’ biggest strength under Craig McRae – their transition from defence – into an Achilles’ heel, repeatedly turning the ball over and punishing them the other way. Of the nine goals that Sydney kicked from possession chains originating from within 75 metres of their attacking goal, seven were direct from turnovers. A whopping +46 points from turnover differential was the key stat of the match.

However, another stat would have caught the attention of Essendon coach Brad Scott. Against Sydney, Collingwood actually managed to generate some excellent opportunities from stoppages. They won overall clearances 38 to 30, and centre clearances 17 to 9. But the Pies couldn’t capitalise, only managing to record a +8 points from stoppage differential. The Bombers, meanwhile, feasted on stoppages against the Hawks, kicking 10.1, including three goals directly from centre bounces. Stoppages were Sydney’s weakness last season, and although their impressive Opening Round display against Melbourne suggested an improvement, the game against Collingwood showed it’s still an area that can be exploited.

Where Essendon are likely to struggle is in stopping Sydney’s ball movement. More than 57 percent of Hawthorn’s possession chains ended up with an inside 50, and more than 28 percent turned into scoring shots. The Bombers managed just two intercept marks between the 50-metre arcs for the entire game (shout-out to Anthony of The Bombers Blog for these stats, I highly recommend giving him a follow). Counting on your opponents to miss isn’t a sustainable defensive strategy.

When these two teams last played each other – Round 20, 2023, at Marvel Stadium – the Swans recorded a heart-stopping two point win, built mostly off the back of scores from turnovers. They kicked five goals in the second quarter. Every single one of them was from an Essendon turnover. Zach Merrett, Essendon's chief distributor, will need a very good night on Saturday. (I love this fixture – wacky stuff is virtually guaranteed.)

Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast

Sunday 24 March, 13.00 AEDT (MARS Stadium)

What’s shaping as a make-or-break season didn’t exactly start on the right note for Dogs coach Luke Beveridge. All his side’s familiar foes – inefficient ball movement, inability to prevent consecutive opposition scores (the Demons twice kicked five straight goals either side of quarter time, and six out of the last eight) and poor goal-kicking – reared their ugly heads in Round 1. At their best under Beveridge, the Dogs reliably won the ball at source and rapidly chained up through handballs to create space. That seems to be diminishing. After being ranked in the bottom two for kicking percentage for five consecutive years (2018 to 2022), the Dogs have started kicking it more, especially as their means of exiting stoppages. Not only has that compromised the quality of their inside-50 entries, it’s seen them concede more marks, and hand their opponents more opportunities to start possession chains. Against Melbourne, their zone broke down entirely. The Dogs conceded a staggering 141 marks (just 12 of which were contested). For reference, they conceded an average of 87.9 last year.

As for the Suns, things look… bright. They’re two wins from two. It’s hard to take too many lessons from their Round 1 win against the Crows because the conditions made it almost impossible to play anything other than attritional, front-half footy. But that looms as a good way to beat an undermanned Dogs defence that, in addition to struggling to win the ball back, continues to struggle getting the ball from back to front. Melbourne kicked 11 goals against the Dogs from possession chains originating within 100 metres of their attacking goal. The Suns, meanwhile, did something similar against Adelaide, with seven of their eight goals coming from chains starting within 75 metres of goal. Damien Hardwick will know that the Dogs have issues preventing opposition marks. I suspect he might instruct his players to advance carefully up the field, kick by kick, and gain territorial ascendancy. If the Suns’ big forwards (including #3 draft pick Jed Salter, who'll be making his debut) can create enough inside-50 stoppages and allow the powerful Suns’ midfield, led by Matt Rowell, to get to work – they’re a good chance of making it three from three.

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Richmond vs. Port Adelaide

Sunday 24 March, 16.00 AEDT (MCG)

Richmond’s Round 1 game against Carlton – traditionally the season curtain-raiser – is a strong early contender for weirdest game of the season. The Blues, with one of the strongest on-ball brigades in the AFL, were dominated from stoppages. Richmond won more of them and outscored the Blues by five goals. Meanwhile, the Tigers, pioneers of chaosball during their dynasty years, were repeatedly punished on turnovers. The basic pattern of the game was a Carlton goal from a turnover followed closely by a Richmond goal from a clearance. It felt like living in the Upside-Down.

It speaks to the Tigers’ early teething problems under Adem Yze to move the ball upfield from their defensive half. Despite that, they gave a very good account of themselves. The way they controlled the game in the third quarter despite the cruel loss of young defender Josh Gibcus to an ACL injury was especially impressive.

As for Port Adelaide, they opened up season 2024 by doing what they pretty much always do: handily beating a lowly side at home. The game against West Coast really didn’t provide much information about whether they’ve made any significant tweaks to their style (if you’re after a reminder of what Kenball looks like, read my season preview). So with that in mind, there are two things I’ll be looking for on Sunday. First is how well Port can shackle Tom Lynch and Noah Balta. In theory, they’re precisely the sort of players Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher were brought in to muzzle. The second is whether Port can exploit Richmond’s back-half deficiencies. Last year, Port were #1 in the AFL for both forward-half intercepts and points per game from forward half chains.

West Coast vs. GWS

Sunday 24 March, 18.50 AEDT (Optus Stadium)

Unsurprisingly, West Coast’s Round 1 game against Port at Adelaide Oval didn’t tell us much about either side. Port still swing hard but have a glass jaw. The Eagles still have massive problems preventing their opponents from doing… well, almost anything. Port piled on the pain from stoppages, recording a massive +40 points differential, and, if not for their inaccurate kicking, might have recorded a similar disparity in points from turnovers.

But that’s not to say there weren’t reasons for Eagles fans to smile. Harley Reid looked assured on his debut. Their veterans were back and mostly, with one Andrew Gaff-shaped exception, performed well. And the side looked more capable with ball in hand. Four goals from possession chains starting 125 metres or more from their attacking goal is a sign of both improved ball movement, and of the impact of Jeremy McGovern. What a shame, then, that co-captain and star forward Oscar Allen will miss more than a month with knee soreness. His absence is likely to obscure the progress that the Eagles are making in other areas simply because they’ll struggle to finish chances without him.

The Giants, meanwhile, have the look of early season flag favourites to them. They beat a spirited North Melbourne side with consummate ease in a helter-skelter game where defence seemed optional rather than obligatory. How’s this for a stat (courtesy of Ricky Mangidis): in 2023, teams rebounding from defensive 50 entered their attacking 50 about 23 percent of the time. Against North, GWS did it almost 57 percent of the time. The Giants will cut up better teams than North with their ball movement. The worry for the Eagles is that they might not be better than North.

What do you think? Did I miss something? Please let me know in the comments below!

PS – I’m still experimenting with this format. It’ll naturally evolve over time as I figure out what works and doesn’t. But if you have ideas for how it could be improved, I’d love to hear them.