2024 AFL Season Previews: Port Adelaide
Can Port summon the power to win?
In my penultimate season preview, I take a look at Port Adelaide.
2023 ladder position: 3rd (17 wins, 6 losses – eliminated at semi-final stage)
2023 best-and-fairest: Zak Butters
Senior coach: Ken Hinkley
Story of the season
In Round 22, Port beat Greater Western Sydney by 51 points at the Adelaide Oval. In truth, it could have been more. It looked like they’d found the blueprint to beat back the Orange Tsunami. Five weeks later, at the same venue, against the same opponents, Port lost by 23 points. In truth, it could have been more. The difference? The second game was a final. Port’s season veered madly between miserable lows, like losing by 12 goals to Collingwood and by five goals a week later in the Showdown, and ridiculous highs like their Round 1 destruction of Brisbane and Dan Houston kicking a 55-metre goal in the wet to beat Essendon after the siren. Yet for all the crazy drama, in the end, Port’s 2023 ended up… fizzling out rather meekly, with the big questions about Ken Hinkley’s ability to steer the club to glory just as prominent as ever.
Summary of game style
Port have the most interesting statistical profile of any team in the AFL. Try to make sense of the following: in 2023, Port ranked dead last for disposals, but second for inside 50s. 18th for marks, but fifth for marks inside 50. 18th for hit outs and ruck contest win percentage, but second for centre clearances. Second for fewest disposals conceded, but second-last for rebound 50s conceded. First for offensive one-on-ones, and first for expected scores.
These bold paint strokes coalesce into a single, coherent picture of how Port play. They aim to turn the ball over as close to their attacking goal as possible (or, failing that, get Aliir Aliir to intercept it) and then quickly get it forward and/or lock it inside their attacking 50. It works because of Port’s intense forward pressure (Port were #1 in the AFL for points from forward half turnovers), penetrative long kicking, and outstanding two-way midfielders who damage opponents when they have the ball and contain when they don’t. The flipside of the defend-from-the-front style is that it can leave Port horribly exposed on transition when their opponents “beat the press”. They were dead last in the comp for defensive one-on-one win percentage, and fourth-last for opposition goals per inside 50 entry (partly also a legacy of defensive personnel, which I’ll touch on later in the piece). The only teams that fared worse on the latter metric finished in the bottom three.
List changes
In:
Thomas Anastasopoulos (2023 National Draft, pick #48)
Lachlan Charleson (2023 National Draft, pick #52)
Will Lorenz (2023 National Draft, pick #57)
Xavier Walsh (2023 Rookie Draft, pick #13)
Esava Ratugolea (traded from Geelong)
Ivan Soldo (traded from Richmond)
Jordon Sweet (traded from Western Bulldogs)
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (traded from Essendon)
Out:
Xavier Duursma (traded to Essendon)
Riley Bonner (delisted)
Trent Dumont (delisted)
Nathan Barkla (delisted)
Orazio Fantasia (delisted)
Sam Hayes (delisted)
Brynn Teakle (delisted)
Jake Pasini (delisted)
Tom Jonas (retired)
Scott Lycett (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: four (third-fewest)
Average age at Opening Round: 24.5 (ninth-youngest)
Average number of games played: 70.6 (ninth-most)
As I’ve mentioned in some of my other season previews, a key indicator of medium-term list health is the share of a team’s output generated by younger players. In that regard, Port are travelling very well. Not a single player who finished in the top-10 of their best-and-fairest is over 30. The average age is just a tick over 25. The future of the midfield, in particular, looks secure. Zak Butters is 23. The newly-appointed captain, Connor Rozee, is 24. Willem Drew: 25. Miles Bergman: 25. Jason Horne-Francis: 20. Ollie Wines (a Brownlow Medallist!) is still just 29 and, if people talk about him at all, it’s in the past tense. Port’s midfield is already elite, or very close to it – and it’s going to get better.
The recruitment of Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher looks like a canny decision. They’ve been recruited to add size and strength to an undersized backline and – just as importantly – to ease the pressure on Aliir Aliir, whose form suffered as a result of effectively having to play as both Port’s main interceptor and main one-on-one defender. But they still represent a gamble. Port are betting that they can win a flag, or at least get seriously close, with a handful of elite players supplemented by replacement-level key position stocks. It’s almost like something you’d see in today’s NBA, where having two or three superstars surrounded by regular guys immediately makes you a serious championship contender. Or, if you’re an aficionado of Spanish football, you might immediately think of Real Madrid’s policy of “Zidanes y Pavones” from about 20 years ago – superstars surrounded by cheap, reliable players who keep things relatively secure down back.
Line rankings
Defence: Above Average
Midfield: Elite
Forward: Above Average
Ruck: Poor
The case for optimism
I’m going to start the optimism section in an unusual manner. I don’t think Port can win the flag in 2024. They have a few too many flaws, and opposition coaches today are too good at exploiting those flaws. But I’d like to pitch a longer-term case for optimism. If – and it is an if – the midfield triumvirate of Butters, Rozee and Horne-Francis sticks together, Port ought to be a good team for a long time. Individually, they’re already very good. In three years, think how much better they can be – as individual players and as a unit. And the exciting thing is that almost all of the players who are playing important roles today should still be around then. An improved version of that midfield trio, supported by a core group of Bergman, Drew, Aliir, Sam Powell-Pepper, Dan Houston, Todd Marshall, Mitch Georgiades, Ollie Lord, Jeremy Finlayson, and whoever else Port recruit in the meantime? That group could win a Premiership.
That’s the future. What about the present? The case for optimism in 2024 rests on the additions of Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher. No one’s mistaking them for All Australian-calibre defenders. But they should make Port more solid down back. As I wrote above, last year, Port hid their defensive frailty by trying to turn the ball over as far forward as possible. But it didn’t always work. Ratugolea can stand the big key forwards. Zerk-Thatcher can take the second forwards. That frees Aliir up to do what he does best: anticipate, intercept, and initiate attacks.
Another cause for optimism that shouldn’t go unmentioned: a few luck-related things that went against Port in 2023. Their opponents had the biggest expected score overperformance in the AFL – basically, they scored about five points more per game than they “should have”, based on the quality of their chances. Meanwhile, Port themselves were actually one of the biggest expected score underperformers. Together, those two quirks are worth about eight points per game. If it had flipped the result of the epic Round 19 clash against Collingwood, Port would have finished second instead of third – and played Brisbane in Adelaide instead of at the Gabba.
The case for pessimism
Three reasons. The first is simple, boring, inevitable regression to the mean. Port went 6-2 in games decided by less than two goals in 2023. As a result, they finished with 17 wins, six losses, and a percentage of 112 – good enough for third. In 2022? They won just two out of nine close games – and finished 12th with 10 wins, 12 losses, and a percentage of 110. Equalise the close games and you get basically identical records! I’m not saying there’s no skill to winning tight games of footy. Modern coaching systems emphasise scenario training. Dynasties and legends have been built on teams’ and individual players’ ability to lift in key moments. But there’s also a lot of luck involved. An entire constellation of TV shows, podcasts and even newsletters (!) exists to explain why certain things happened in footy games. But sometimes it really is mostly luck. The other guys miss and you don’t. Port’s luck was good last year, so they were a good team. It might not be as good this year.
That’s especially salient when you consider that luck plays an outsized role in Port’s approach because of the gambles they’ve made in building their list. The second reason to be pessimistic about Port is that they appear dangerously dependent on a small number of players. It’s hard to think of a team being more impacted by a single injury in 2024 than Port would be if someone like Zak Butters did his knee. Obviously, I hope he doesn’t. (I hope every player stays healthy; it makes watching footy less of an ethical conundrum.) The point is that the fewer players you rely on, the worse it is when they’re absent.
On a purely tactical level, if I were a Port fan, I’d also worry about what would happen if more teams figured out how to restrict their inside 50 entries. The biggest personnel changes between Port’s two games against the Giants were that, for the semi-final, the Giants had Toby Bedford and Brent Daniels in the side. Both players excel at pushing up to the contest, applying forward pressure, and – crucially – restricting the ability of their opponents to rebound from their own defensive 50. With Port dominated in the contest, unable to generate outside run and struggling to lock the ball inside attacking 50, they looked short of ideas. It looked like the blueprint to beat Port. Let’s see what opposition coaches do with that information.
That brings me to the third, and, for many Port fans, the major reason for pessimism: Ken Hinkley. Hinkley has coached 248 senior AFL games. Not one of them has been a Grand Final. He’s won just five out of 12 finals over an 11-year stint. At times, he’s appeared perilously close to the sack. There’s a constant, simmering debate within the AFL media and especially Port fan forums (where the debate is more boiling than simmering), about whether Hinkley can take the club to a second (AFL) Premiership. But it often feels as though the debate itself – and its manifestations, like the odd dance about his contract extension in 2023 – hinders him and the players. The odds are now overwhelmingly in favour of an orderly transition of power to highly-rated assistant Josh Carr following the expiration of Hinkley’s current contract. But until that happens, or it’s confirmed, it feels like there’ll always be speculation. And it’s not one that’s likely to go away, either. One of the highest-profile Hinkley sceptics, club legend Warren Tredrea, is now a Port Adelaide board member.
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Breakout player
Miles Bergman was a good candidate here. The smooth half-back, who signed a two-year contract extension during the year, is equally adept at rebounding from 50, nullifying an opposition small forward, and drifting up to become an auxiliary midfielder. I’m excited about the return of Mitch Georgiades from his ACL injury. However, I have a confession to make: I’m captivated by Ollie Lord. He’s lanky. He’s got a wonky goal-kicking action. But he’s definitely got something. We’re talking about a guy – a kid, really – who kicked four goals in his first final, which just happened to be at the Gabba.
Most important player
Connor Rozee and Zak Butters. Sure, they’re technically two separate people. But at this point, they’re a dyad. Both represent a fascinating archetype of the modern AFL midfielder: explosive, agile, and outrageously creative. They might not escape a tackle from, say, Jack Viney, but if they can just outrun him, then what’s the issue? They’re two of my favourite players to watch in the AFL. And, increasingly, their form and fitness dictate Port’s fortunes.
Biggest question to answer
Can a team with such a big gap between its best and worst players thrive in today’s AFL? Whether he knows it or not, Ken Hinkley is running an interesting experiment. Conventional wisdom states that a team’s bottom five players go a long way to determining overall success. If Port succeed despite that gap, they could change the way teams build their lists.
What success looks like
Port feel like they’re walking on a tightrope. Aside from the bottom three, there’s almost no position on the ladder they could finish that would genuinely surprise. But, grumbling about Hinkley and general AFL media scepticism aside, expectations are high. Success means shaking the tag of finals underperformers. They should be aiming for a prelim final.
In a nutshell
Port have some diamonds surrounded by some rough. If they’re lucky – meaning the stars stay healthy, the unheralded players play their role, and they keep winning the close ones – they could well make the top 4 again. At that point, it’s over to Ken.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against Port? Share your thoughts in the comments.