Round 6 2024 preview

Already? Bloody hell.

Apr 18, 2024

Hello, Dear Readers. I’ve inadvertently gone long again today (close to 4,000 words – oops!) so I won’t waste time with a long preamble. As always: any and all constructive comments are more than welcome.

St Kilda vs. Western Bulldogs

Thursday 18 April, 19.30 AEDT (Marvel Stadium)

Identical records, but very different moods. It’s been a rough week for the Bulldogs and for their coach Luke Beveridge. First, there was the insipid defeat to the Bombers on Friday night (the fact that the expected score was even is meagre consolation indeed). There was widespread consternation over his selection decisions, which most recently have seen former All-Australians like Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale and Jack Macrae spending more time on the bench and in the twos. Beveridge insisted that Tom Liberatore had a sprained ankle when everyone watching could see that he collapsed from concussion and/or exhaustion. And, throughout the week, some mealy-mouthed remarks have led people to speculate whether he truly believes his current list is capable of winning a Premiership. Just six months after commissioning a thorough review of the football department and backing Beveridge, the Bulldogs seemingly find themselves back at the crossroads.

If the Dogs are slowly sliding towards the midtable vortex, then the Saints might be slowly clawing their way out of it. While it’s true that the Saints, just like the Dogs, are 2-3, things feel different at Moorabbin. They’ve been in every single game. They ran out of road against the Giants. Their biggest win was by 15 points, while their three losses have been by a cumulative total of just 13 points. Younger players are making bigger contributions each week. And their tactical identity is becoming clearer. Ross Lyon is content to allow opposition teams to chip the ball short in low-threat parts of the ground and then apply enough pressure to force long kicks inside-50 for his defenders to mark or his smaller players to mop up at ground level. From there, one of the most accomplished half-back and wing corps in the AFL, led by Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, cause damage going the other way.

In theory, it’s the ideal blueprint to frustrate the Dogs. Although it was more than a year ago, the previous game between these two sides (Round 2, 2023) may be instructive. The Saints held the Dogs to just 37 inside-50s and 41 points, both their lowest totals of the season. And that was in just Lyon’s second game back in charge. There’ll be two specific things I’m looking for on Thursday night. The first is the ruck duel. Tim English might be the reigning All-Australian. But he’s also badly out of form. There’s mounting speculation that he might be a victim (at least in the short-term) of the change to the ruck rules, which allows for straight-arm blocks as part of a contest. But the rule change doesn’t seem to have affected his counterpart, Rowan Marshall. The St Kilda ruckman recorded a frankly ludicrous statline against the Giants: 28 disposals, 16 clearances, 10 inside-50s. He exploited Kieren Briggs’ inferior athleticism all afternoon and was the driving force that almost got the Saints across the line. The other thing to watch is the effect of key injuries on both sides. Both sides will be missing their key forwards, while Liberatore will miss following his scary on-field collapse against the Bombers. Injuries introduce a wildcard element. But if the Saints can break even in clearances, they’ll be confident of their ability to nullify a blunt-looking Dogs side in general play.

Player to watch: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera. The young half-back is arguably the Saints’ most important player. To win, the Dogs will need to quell his influence.

Adelaide vs. Essendon

Friday 19 April, 19.40 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)

On Tuesday, I wrote a 3,000 word piece on how the Crows (finally) rediscovered their 2023-calibre ball movement against Carlton. If you’ve not yet had the chance to read it, please do. I’ll do my best to not repeat myself in this preview. However, if I had to identify a single metric which is most indicative of their success in moving the ball fluidly, it’s marks inside 50. The Crows took 18 of them against the Blues – double their previous best for the season, and five more than their 2023 season average, which was enough to rank 4th in the AFL.

But if the Crows finally have cause for optimism, so do the Bombers. While they were slightly flattered by the final result against the Western Bulldogs (the expected score was a dead heat), it was still one of their most impressive performances under Brad Scott. It started in the midfield. The Bombers’ ability to both win and then score from stoppages – they went +22 in scores originating from stoppage wins – was highly impressive. Sam Draper and Todd Goldstein each spent time up forward, which severely curtailed the Dogs’ ability to take intercept marks and, in turn, their run off half-back. If they’re to win at the Adelaide Oval, the Bombers need a plan for Mitch Hinge. The former delisted free agent has blossomed into an excellent half-back who’s especially adept at winning ground-level ball before launching attacks. Five weeks into the season, Champion Data has him as their ninth-ranked player in the AFL. Curbing his influence will be key to Essendon’s ability to defend the Crows’ ball movement – and preventing those all-important inside-50 marks.

Player to watch: Sam Durham. The young midfielder played arguably the best game of his career last week against the Dogs, winning six centre clearances and helping to nullify the influence of Marcus Bontempelli. If he can play a similarly effective spoiling role on Jordan Dawson or Jake Soligo, it will go a long way to the Bombers winning in Adelaide.

Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide

Saturday 20 April, 13.45 AEDT (MCG)

In what’s rapidly becoming an annual tradition, Fox Footy have unveiled their Premiership Window graphic for the year. While it’s not exactly the most sophisticated bit of data analysis – it’s just a record of points for plotted against conceded points conceded – it is a reasonably accurate measure of team strength. Just one Premiership-winning team since 2005 hasn’t ended the season in that little top-right quadrant, which indicates both a top-six attack and a top-six defence. It’s very early in the season. They’ve played both West Coast and Essendon at home. But Port Adelaide are firmly in the window. They remain resolutely themselves: they kick it more, and longer, than any other team in the AFL. They set up extremely aggressively at centre bounces so they can rush the ball inside 50 and, if they don’t score right away, lock it in and set up behind the ball. Based on the first month of the season, I’d say Port have improved. Jason Horne-Francis is rapidly emerging as the A-grade midfielder he was destined to become. Ivan Soldo appears to be a bigger upgrade in the ruck than most people anticipated. And, for the time being, Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher are doing an admirable job at repelling attacks and freeing up Aliir Aliir to intercept and distribute.

But, with all due respect to Port’s opponents so far, it’s games like this that will really determine what they can achieve in 2024. When these two sides last played at the MCG, Collingwood delivered a brutal reality check to the tune of 71 points. Then, in the Round 19 return fixture, Jamie Elliott broke the hearts of another supporter base to complete a statistically unlikely victory. The Pies have stabilised with consecutive wins following their 0-3 start. But although their pressure game has clicked into gear (they’ve averaged 79.5 tackles across their last two games, compared to just 55 in their first three), they’re still not attacking with anything like the same speed or rhythm as they were last year. Right now, they’re just 7th for goals per inside-50 entry, compared to 2nd in 2023. Port’s high press will provide the Pies with opportunities if they can rebound from defensive 50. But it’s a big if – the Pies are currently ranked 15th for opposition goals per inside-50 entry, and faring even worse (16th) for expected score per shot, meaning they’re coughing up easy shots. Port, meanwhile, will want to find a way to become less reliant on Charlie Dixon. He was targeted with kicks 32 times against Fremantle. No player in the league is targeted more often. The problem is, Dixon is ranked 41st among all players for retention (a measure of the likelihood of keeping possession given a kick to him) and 46th for goals. The big forward demands the ball. But right now, the over-reliance on going to him is hampering both him and Port.

Player to watch: Sam Powell-Pepper is likely to come in for his first game of the season following a four-game suspension. If he can apply his trademark forward pressure, Collingwood will find it hard to initiate the back-half run that’s a cornerstone of their game.

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Saturday 20 April, 16.35 AEDT (Marvel Stadium)

The next month will teach us a lot about how good Carlton really are this year. Brisbane, Richmond, North Melbourne, Fremantle and Adelaide was a relatively gentle introduction to the season by the standards of the modern AFL. By contrast, Carlton’s next five games will see them face GWS, Geelong, Collingwood, Melbourne and Sydney. And they’ll have to do it without some important players. Adam Cerra and Mitch McGovern will miss 1-2 weeks, while Adam Saad and Jesse Motlop, the latter of whom sustained another hamstring injury, are likely to miss that entire stretch of games. They’re important absences. Saad and McGovern in particular have been instrumental in initiating attacks from half-back, which have seen Carlton increase their scoring from turnovers.

Remember: in 2023, Carlton were the best team in the AFL at scoring from stoppages, but only mediocre at scoring from turnovers. Through the first month of the season, that flipped. The Blues were ranked #2 for scores from turnover differential, but #17 at scores from stoppage differential. They had a summer glow-up and became a manic pressure team. Against the Crows, however, they reverted back to a profile which was much more reminiscent of last season. For the first time all year, they lost the turnover game – while simultaneously dominating from stoppages. Partly, that decline in their turnover performance was because of the early absence of Saad. But an even bigger contributing factor was the decision to bring in ruckman Marc Pittonet to replace Cerra.

Team selection forces coaches to confront dozens of trade-offs every week. One specific example is the choice to pick one or two rucks. The basic shape of the trade-off is as follows: two rucks give you the chance to dominate hit-outs and clearances. You improve your marking power. But you lose run and pressure. Generally speaking, most teams now prefer playing with one full-time ruck and allocating secondary duties to a key position player. On Saturday, Pittonet and Tom De Koning split ruck duties. As a result, De Koning spent about half an hour as a key forward. It didn’t work. He was only targeted once inside 50, and his presence made it too easy for the Crows to rebound from their back half.

Michael Voss knows all this. He also knows that his side’s team defence was not up to scratch. It’ll be very interesting to see how he tries to solve those problems. Because if he doesn’t, the Giants will exploit them. Not everything is going perfectly for the Orange Team. Yes, they’re 5-0. But Adam Kingsley wouldn’t be thrilled with some of his side’s defensive metrics. Thus far, they’re 16th for tackles inside forward 50 (they were 1st in 2023), which is the main reason they’re just 8th for scores conceded per inside 50 entry. And that’s having played both West Coast and North Melbourne. The Giants will be without Stephen Coniglio and Sam Taylor, probably the league’s best key defender, who went off after a sickening concussion against St Kilda. And Carlton, for all their injuries and their imbalances, are still the #1 forward-half turnover team this season. In short, both of these teams have issues, despite the fact they’ve lost just a single game between them.

Player to watch: Sam Walsh. The star midfielder was Carlton’s best player in his comeback from injury, recording more than twice as many inside-50s (11) as anyone else on the ground. If he can replicate his performance against a Giants side without Coniglio and Taylor, the Blues have a good chance.

Brisbane vs. Geelong

Saturday 20 April, 19.30 AEDT (Gabba)

The Cats are 5-0. But, ask the critics, have they actually played any good sides? The Lions are 2-3, having lost their first three. But, say the analytics nerds, they’re actually better than their record suggests. Despite some obvious patterns already having emerged, we’re still early enough in the season that weird results and lopsided early fixtures can skew things.

Despite a somewhat soft first five games, Geelong look back to somewhere near their imposing 2022 best. There are two stats I immediately look for to discern how the Cats are going: intercepts and forward efficiency. As I’ve written before, the Cats don’t care so much about clearances. Sure, winning the ball out of the middle is a nice-to-have, but they’re so confident in what they can do within the 50-metre arcs, it’s not a necessity. In 2022, their most recent Premiership year, the Cats were the #1 side for turnover differential and intercept possession differential. So far, through five games of 2024, they’re… #1 for both stats. In 2022, they were #3 for goals per inside-50 entry. So far, they’re… #2. It’s a small sample size. But it’s enough to make success-starved Cats fans (that was a joke) believe their side can once again do damage in September. That they’re currently doing it with a less experienced midfield group is even more cause for optimism.

The Lions, meanwhile, looked absolutely superb against a Melbourne side that, admittedly, looked like they needed the week off. The most dominant 22-point win you could ever hope to see was built off the back of superb pressure in close, facilitated by Chris Fagan’s decision to effectively sacrifice a winger and instead push an extra man into stoppages. It worked an absolute treat: Melbourne’s main midfield trio of Petracca, Oliver and Viney had one of their worst-ever outings as a trio. With Melbourne unable to effectively clear the ball from stoppage situations – for so long, their bread and butter – Brisbane were able to dominate territory and get to work forward of centre. They outscored the Dees 5.6 to 1.5 (+25) from chains starting within 75 metres of attacking goal. The Cats will represent a different kind of challenge. But a similar standard of performance would be a match for any side in the competition.

Player to watch: Is it too cheeky to say Charlie Cameron?

West Coast vs. Fremantle

Saturday 20 April, 20.10 AEDT (Optus Stadium)

An intriguing Derby between arguably the two most tactically divergent teams in the competition. Fremantle have returned to finals contention on the back of becoming the stingiest defence in the competition. The outstanding form of players like Luke Ryan and captain Alex Pearce is beautifully complimented by a midfield brigade that regularly wins first use – the Dockers are #1 in the AFL for both ground ball gets differential and clearance differential – and keeps the ball in areas where they’re hard to score against. What’s currently keeping the Dockers from being a true contender is their mediocre attack. For all the control they exert, they currently record the second-fewest inside-50 entries per game (although they’re performing respectably once the ball goes in – #5 for scoring shots per entry). In their last two games, they’ve scored at half the league average from opposition turnovers. And only four teams are worse than the Dockers when it comes to preventing the opposition from moving the ball from their back 50 to attacking 50. If you’re wondering why Freo’s games this season have felt slightly narcotic, it’s because of that familiar “get it forward, opposition run it out of defence, turn it over and try again” pattern. Right now, Justin Longmuir’s side remind me of former Arsenal coach Arsene Wenger’s sniffy dismissal of what he termed “sterile dominance” – possession as a defensive tool.

Their opponents couldn’t be much more different. In my season preview, I wrote that West Coast were searching for their new tactical identity. That wasn’t a slight – it was pretty much a direct quote from coach Adam Simpson. We’re beginning to see one emerge. The Eagles are the most aggressive team when it comes to attacking directly from centre bounces. They set up aggressively, move the ball forward more than most teams, and use their first disposal out of the stoppage to move in a forward direction even more frequently. Against Sydney in Gather Round, the Eagles went forward with their first disposal 12 of the 15 times they won a centre bounce clearance. It’s exhilarating stuff that suits the attributes of players like Tim Kelly and the incredibly exciting Harley Reid. But it means that losing centre bounce is very dangerous. As a result, the Eagles are actually slightly negative when it comes to net points from centre bounce chains.

But that aggression worked wonders against Richmond last Sunday. The Eagles absolutely destroyed the Tigers in and under, going +27 in clearances and a whopping +38 in points from clearance differential (including +15 from centre bounce clearances) – which ended up being the difference in a game decided by 39 points. I fully expect the Eagles to maintain that aggressive posture in the Derby. After all, it’s… kind of working. The Eagles have won three of their last nine games, which, not a great return, is certainly an improvement from the form which had pundits asking if they were the worst side in AFL history. Their high-risk, high-reward style, particularly from centre bounce, will provide the Dockers with lots of opportunities to score going the other way. The question that will determine not just the result of this Derby, but Freo’s entire season, is whether they can do enough damage going the other way.

Player to watch: Harley Reid. How could it be anyone else?

Sydney vs. Gold Coast

Sunday 21 April, 13.05 AEDT (SCG)

It’s fascinating to watch a team transform its style and composition in front of your eyes. One of the things which held the Suns back under Stuart Dew was their inability to affect opposition turnovers. Because you’re reading this, and are therefore a member of the footy cognitive elite, you already know that scores from turnovers constitute the bulk (approximately two-thirds) of scoring in the AFL today. So it was a problem that, under Dew, the Suns ranked 18th, 17th, 14th, 13th, 15th and 16th for turnover differential. Five weeks into the 2024 season, they’re 4th. The Suns’ ability to turn the ball over, together with the rapid turnover of the team itself – there were 11 changes between the side that thumped Hawthorn on Saturday night and the one that meekly submitted to North in the final round last year – means Damien Hardwick has already stamped his authority on his new side.

It’s an interesting time to play the Swans. Right now, I still consider them as probably a top-four team because they appear to have added clearance power to their devastating ball movement. But in their last two games, and against lowly opposition at that (sorry, Tigers and Eagles fans), the Swans have done almost as much damage to themselves as their opposition. In their impressive wins against Collingwood and Essendon, the Swans averaged 63.5 turnovers. However, that’s jumped to an average of 71 across their last two games. If you don’t think that’s very much – how do you fancy the idea of your opponents getting an extra eight high-quality chances to score each game?

At this early stage of Hardwick’s tenure, the Swans have much more sophisticated ball movement patterns. But Hardwick built a dynasty on knocking aristocratic teams off their stride and wreaking havoc the other way. If they can get on top around the ball and start in good positions, he will fancy their ability to do it one more time.

Player to watch: Sam Flanders emerged as a talented inside midfielder in the back half of 2023. It took Damien Hardwick three games to decide he was actually a half-back. If he can put in the same kind of performance as he did against Hawthorn (34 disposals and five inside-50s), his side have a decent chance.

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North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn

Sunday 21 April, 16.05 AEDT (Marvel Stadium)

Five weeks into the season, frustration is brewing among fans of both these sides. Only the most optimistic North Melbourne fans believed a start to the season which included games against GWS, Carlton, Brisbane and Geelong would yield anything other than five losses. There have been moments of real promise with ball in hand – especially the first half against Fremantle. But the manner of those defeats, and especially North’s almost total inability to prevent opposition scores, has discouraged many who regarded 2024 as Year Zero in an interrupted rebuild process.

Hawthorn fans, meanwhile, are feeling the disappointment of not currently meeting raised expectations. Things aren’t as bad as they seem. Despite being decimated by injuries to key defenders, the Hawks mounted spirited comebacks against Geelong and Collingwood, and probably would have beaten Essendon in Round 1 had they kicked straight. Five weeks is way, way too early to declare a year, let alone an entire rebuild, a failure. But there’s no denying that last week’s game against Gold Coast represented a step back. Sam Mitchell knew it too. The midfield – notionally Hawthorn’s strongest line – is currently the biggest cause for concern. Because of their deficiencies at both ends of the ground, Hawthorn (and North) generally need to win first use in order to be competitive in games. That’s simply not happening at the moment. In 2023, the Hawks ranked 7th for clearance differential, which allowed them to record the best disposal differential in the league. So far this season, the Hawks are 15th for clearance differential and disposal differential. It’s tough to win when your best players can’t get you the ball.

Both sides will see Sunday as an opportunity. North will need to control territory if they’re to win. Although Geelong scored from everywhere, Alastair Clarkson will be especially concerned by the fact that they scored more than 50 points from forward-half turnovers. You simply can’t subject a defence as callow as North’s to such consistent pressure. The Hawks probably don’t need as many things to go right. But a handful of players whose form has regressed following an impressive 2023 will want to put in better performances.

Player to watch: Barely more than a year into his career, Harry Sheezel is already the guy North rely on to launch their attacks from half-back. He’s fared well despite his side’s tough start to the season. Finally, he comes up against a side that isn’t so difficult to move the ball against.

What do you think? Did I miss something? Let me know in the comments below!