2024 AFL Season Previews: West Coast
Can the Eagles pick themselves up off the mat?
In my final season preview, I go West to pick over the wreckage of the Eagles’ 2023.
2023 ladder position: 18th (3 wins, 20 losses)
2023 best-and-fairest: Tim Kelly
Senior coach: Adam Simpson
Story of the season
2023 was the worst year in the history of this proud club – coming off the back of another season that would have made it onto their anti-podium. At times, it felt more like watching a slasher film than a footy season. The Eagles lost five games by more than 100 points – and, as if injury needed further insult, a further six by more than 50. Speaking of injury, a lengthy list of absentees robbed the Eagles of many of their Premiership players. Even when the veterans did manage to play, they often couldn’t save the Eagles from rank uncompetitiveness. Every day, it felt like there was a new crisis, or the deepening of an existing one. The sight of one of the sport’s biggest and most successful clubs at such a low ebb created a rolling psychodrama that played out across the screens and back pages that constitute the footy media. Pundits called for Adam Simpson’s and CEO Trevor Nisbett’s heads to be delivered on a plate. They got one of their wishes. Simpson will return for his 11th season as the Eagles’ senior coach with his first – and the club’s second – wooden spoon tucked under his belt. Nisbett has been replaced by the former Adelaide coach (and former Eagles player), Don Pyke.
Summary of game style
Usually for these sections, I consult a combination of statistics and the eye test (a fancy phrase for “watching games”) to generate my impression of how a team plays. That’s harder when a team is down the bottom, because rather than impressing their style upon the other team, they’re the one being acted upon. They’re constantly trying to react. Plus, statistical measures aren’t very helpful because weaker teams tend to get smashed, so whatever they’re trying to do doesn’t really show up in the numbers.
All of which leads me to what I’m about to say: West Coast don’t currently have a discernible style of play. Before Eagles fans dismiss that as Kane Cornes-style clickbait, allow me to present this quote from Adam Simpson from January: “We’re trying to chase an identity that we don’t have – we’re starting from scratch in that space.” Simpson was baldly stating a plain truth: teams that have been decimated by injuries and loss of form like the Eagles don’t get to have nice things like a style. It’s been enough of a battle just getting a semi-competitive team on the field.
So if the Eagles don’t have a style, what might their style eventually become? We might find some clues by looking at their 2018 Premiership wide. That Eagles team was like an oasis of calm in a landscape defined by Richmond’s chaos. They ranked in the bottom eight for clearances and bottom three for possessions. They committed the fewest pressure acts of any side. Instead – they kicked. And they marked. The 2018 Eagles were the #1 side for kicks, kicks as a share of disposals, and marks – all by a mile. And when they didn’t have the ball, their superior defensive spacing (the so-called “Weagles Web”) forced their opponents into uncomfortable, low-percentage positions. They succeeded in an era of ultra-high pressure by having players who could execute, time and time again. Although the Eagles were still top-four for kicking percentage in 2022, the 2023 side weren’t nearly as fond of it – their kick percentage was bottom-four in the league. Time will tell if that was just a blip – a relic of a side cruelled by injuries to some of their best users – or a signpost of Adam Simpson’s tactical evolution.
List changes
In:
Harley Reid (2023 National Draft, pick #1)
Archer Reid (2023 National Draft, pick #30)
Clay Hall (2023 National Draft, pick #38)
Harvey Johnston (2023 National Draft, pick #49)
Loch Rawlinson (2023 Rookie Draft, pick #1)
Coen Livingstone (Category B rookie)
Tyler Brockman (traded from Hawthorn)
Matt Flynn (free agent – Greater Western Sydney)
Out:
Sam Petrevski-Seton (delisted)
Greg Clark (delisted)
Luke Foley (delisted)
Xavier O'Neill (delisted)
Connor West (delisted)
Isiah Winder (delisted)
Luke Shuey (retired)
Nic Naitanui (retired)
Shannon Hurn (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: three (fewest)
Average age at Opening Round: 23.7 (third-youngest)
Average number of games played: 63.9 (fifth-fewest)
It felt pretty rough that a side as bad as West Coast were in 2023 had just a single draft pick inside the top 30. Draft concessions are what they are, and this isn’t really the right place to have that debate (although I’m keen to explore it in a future article). But compare it to North Melbourne, who had five of their picks between the Eagles selecting Harley Reid with pick #1 and his namesake Archer at pick #30.
Perhaps the most interesting trivia about the current Eagles list is that, even with Harley Reid, they have just three top-10 draft picks on their list (the others are Reuben Ginbey and Andrew Gaff). That suggests three things. Firstly, they’ve been highly competitive for years. Secondly, a tendency to trade picks for players (step on up, Tim Kelly and Jack Redden). And thirdly, that the bottom might still be yet to come. On average, clubs have 6.7 top-10 picks on their list. The Eagles have bottomed out results-wise, but there’s still more surgery to come. By my count, nine of the players who played on Grand Final day in 2018 are still Eagles today. They’re having increasing amounts of trouble staying healthy – and even when they do get on the park, their ability to impact games is diminishing.
Line rankings
Defence: Average
Midfield: Poor
Forward: Average
Ruck: Average
The case for optimism
This season probably won’t be as bad as 2023. Because that was really bad. I mean – they lost a game by 171 points. The fundamental reason why it got quite as bad as it did was that they just couldn’t get their best players on the park with any regularity. Seriously, it was as though Adam Simpson they broke a mirror, opened an umbrella inside, walked under a ladder, and failed to respond to a chain email – all at the same time. Lots of fans (and coaches) complain about injury lists. But there are injury lists, and then there’s whatever happened to West Coast. Last year, the Eagles still had 16 players who were on their list in 2018. Between them, those players missed a combined 140 games in 2023 (an average of 8.75 each). It wasn’t just the veterans who missed loads of games, either. The kids and mid-agers copped it, too. Mostly it was soft tissue injuries. Sometimes it was a concussion caused by an opposition player. Jake Waterman spent 10 days in hospital with ulcerative colitis. Liam Ryan missed the rest of the season after suffering a bad hamstring injury in Round 3.
The injuries created a vicious cycle: players were rushed back while still underdone, which caused further injuries, which forced the coaching staff to rush back other underdone players. When a rebuilding side is deprived of their key senior players for long stretches, they’re stuffed (that’s the highly technical name). To be honest, the West Coast’s current injury list still looks pretty bad. Odds are that things still won’t get quite as bad as 2023, but who knows? It could be that either the vicious cycle is still in effect, or there’s something systematic about the club’s training facilities or methods that is causing the injuries (or both).
Eagles fans might be wondering when the optimistic part of this section will begin. So here it is: despite facing an unprecedented amount of adversity and criticism, I think the club itself handled things about as well as could be reasonably expected. The club hierarchy backed Adam Simpson (salary soft cap considerations may have come into play). They unearthed a couple of promising young players. They moved on their fitness coach, and Trevor Nisbett made way for former Eagles player (and Adelaide senior coach) Don Pyke. I’m actually neutral on whether the decision to retain Simpson was the right one. I can see the arguments for and against. That’s almost beside the point. The point is that, generally speaking, the Eagles’ hierarchy kept their heads. And fans kept turning up to support the team. That all augurs pretty well for the next phase of the club’s (extensive) rebuild.
I’m sure Eagles fans don’t need me to tell them that 2024 will still, in all likelihood, be pretty ugly. But when your side is down the bottom of the ladder, you rapidly revise expectations. You stop dreaming of hoisting the Premiership Cup aloft on the final Saturday in September and instead start dreaming of what a list that’s made up of almost two dozen players under 22 could do one day. You hope that Harley Reid wins the Rising Star, or that Noah Long continues his development, or that Oscar Allen receives the recognition he deserves. Eagles fans are a loyal bunch. They know they’re in for more pain. But most of them also trust their club to eventually get things right – and with good reason.
One final cause for optimism: the club’s contractual situation. There are 20 Eagles players out of contract at the end of 2024. Adam Simpson will have an entire year to ascertain what they can do and how much they can contribute. That flexibility to zig and zag as needed is a pre-requisite to a successful rebuild.
The case for pessimism
Pretty simple, really. Things might not be as bad as they were in 2023. But they might be. The brutal reality is that the Eagles’ rebuild is still closer to its beginning than its conclusion. Just look at the top-10 of their best-and-fairest from last year. The bulk of the contributions are being made by players near or past their peak. Noah Long will continue improving. So might Oscar Allen and Bailey Williams. The rest have probably already played their best footy. I’ve written in a couple of the other previews that a good measure of list management success, especially for a rebuilding team, is the weight of contributions made by younger players. The Eagles’ best-and-fairest ought to look a fair bit different in 2024. Names like Harley Reid and Reuben Ginbey should figure prominently. But transitioning away from an older core group generally brings short-term pain.
The other thing is that, yes, the Eagles were cruelled by injuries. But they kept getting smashed even on the rare occasions they fielded something resembling a full team. Oscar Allen, Jack Darling, Elliot Yeo, Tom Barrass, Andrew Gaff, Dom Sheed, Tim Kelly, Luke Shuey all featured in the notorious 171-point defeat to the Swans in Round 15. Sure, you can argue if they were anywhere peak form and fitness. But a team with that many experienced players shouldn’t be losing by that much. It suggests the issues at the Eagles currently run deeper than just injuries.
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Breakout player
I’ve made a rule for these (which I now slightly regret) to only select players who’ve already made their debut. That rules out Harley Reid. All signs point to him being great. But since he’s ineligible (he’ll probably get over it), I’ll opt for Reuben Ginbey. The first thing you notice about the 19 year-old is that he’s absolutely massive. The second thing you notice is that he’s actually got quite a bit of craft. If he can maintain his physical dominance while improving his ability to find the ball and use it well (both traits which commonly improve with age), he could develop along a similar trajectory to someone like Tom Green at the Giants.
Most important player
Jeremy McGovern. The guy who resembles a throwback to the semi-professional era is still one of the best players in the competition. His intercept marking and incredible kicking are the foundations of the style that won West Coast the flag in 2018. A smooth performance against Adelaide in the Eagle’s final pre-season game suggests the 31 year-old still has it. The question mark is his durability. McGovern managed just nine games in 2023. If he can double that in 2024, the Eagles will be a better team.
Biggest question to answer
Can Adam Simpson begin to sketch the outline of the next successful Eagles side? That means developing a style which maximises the strength of a young list, understanding which players have what it takes, and extracting the most from his veterans – all while insisting on the non-negotiables: effort and competitiveness. Nobody said it would be easy.
What success looks like
Pouring the concrete slab: namely, developing a sustainable style, and identifying the next handful of players who will be around for the long-term. It’ll most likely be years before that translates to meaningful on-field success like making finals again. But if the Eagles can do those two things, I’m confident that success will eventually arrive. Nabbing a win against a better-fancied side wouldn’t go amiss, either.
In a nutshell
The Eagles are bad, and will almost certainly remain bad for the next few years. But they’re also one of a small number of clubs I trust to eventually get things right.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Eagles? Share your thoughts in the comments.