Round 3 2024 preview

Things to know before you go.

Mar 28, 2024

Good news, Dear Reader. The literal death and resurrection of Jesus Christ himself could not prevent an almost-full round of footy from being played this weekend. Here are the things to watch out for in Round 3. Whatever you’re up to, I hope you have a safe, happy, and restful weekend.

Brisbane vs. Collingwood

Thursday 28 March, 19.30 AEDT (Gabba)

Six months on from their epic Grand Final, we have an early-season Spoonbowl. St. Kilda simply didn’t allow Collingwood to get their back-half game going. The Pies registered just four scoring shots from possession chains originating more than 100 metres from their attacking goal. The Saints, for their part, managed nine. The Pies could also only generate a single score from centre clearances. Stats like these are a symptom of the broader problem currently plaguing Craig McRae’s side: they’re not damaging their opponents with ball in hand. In 2023, Collingwood averaged 0.8 points per possession chain. In the Grand Final, that rose to 0.84 points per chain. Across the first three games of the season, that figure has plummeted to 0.66. Read my upcoming piece about what’s ailing the Pies to learn why.

Brisbane’s traditional issue – winning the ball back – once again reared its head against Fremantle. The Lions had 40 fewer disposals and 12 fewer possession chains than the Dockers. That disparity, coupled with a distinctly sub-par forward line performance (Brisbane scored with 33.9 percent of their entries, compared to their 2023 season average of 49.3 percent) meant that the Lions just couldn’t put a winning score on the board. However, Collingwood’s defence isn’t looking anywhere near as robust as Fremantle’s. So far, the Pies have conceded goals almost 30 percent of the time their opponents enter inside-50. It’s a sign that the personnel and the system aren’t quite right. If the Lions’ midfield, bolstered by the return of Lachie Neale, wins the ball often enough, they should have too much firepower.

North Melbourne vs. Carlton

Friday 29 March, 16.20 AEDT (Marvel)

North showed enough against Fremantle on Saturday to convince a few fence-sitters that Northball is real. Before Freo reeled them in, they showed a commitment and capacity to move the ball at speed from their defensive half that’s been missing for, well, a long time.

Instead, it’s their defensive frailties that are likely to bring them undone against the Blues. Fremantle managed to generate 27 scoring shots from just 45 inside-50 entries by unpicking holes in North’s defensive structure through precise kicking and damaging run and carry. Carlton’s approach won’t need to be so intricate. They have two dominant key forwards. North have an inexperienced, undersized backline. If they towel up Carlton’s midfield, make maximum use of their own scoring opportunities, and keep the ball from going inside Carlton’s 50, North have some chance. Otherwise, a credible defeat might be the pinnacle of their ambitions.

Fremantle vs. Adelaide

Friday 29 March, 19.30 AEDT (Optus Stadium)

In the wake of the Crows’ rather meek defeat to Geelong, lots of ink has been spilled about whether the current composition of their midfield puts a ceiling on their long-term ambitions. Ricky Mangidis, whose work I will always recommend, dedicated all of his weekly review to the subject. I’d quibble with some parts. But the core point is substantially true: Matt Crouch and Rory Laird are fine players, but their limitations with ball in hand place too much of the burden to create on the shoulders of Jordan Dawson.

It’s ironic, then, that the Crows travel to Perth to take on the beneficiaries of one of their most ill-fated recent decisions: the choice to draft Fischer McAsey ahead of Caleb Serong (or Hayden Young). Serong has emerged as one of the best midfielders in the AFL and a leader of a young Dockers side that, after a down year in 2023, might have regained the form that saw them win a final in 2022. The Crows can win. But to do so, they’ll need to rediscover the slick ball movement, risk appetite and forward-line efficiency that have so far eluded them in 2024.

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Saturday 30 March, 16.20 AEDT (Marvel Stadium)

An intriguing match-up, arguably made more so by the enforced absences of both sides’ key forwards. In my Round 2 review, I wrote about the Saints’ impressive ability to attack via the wings against Collingwood. But the vast expanses of the MCG enable that strategy in a way that Marvel Stadium might not.

As for the Bombers, the challenge remains the same: stopping their opposition moving the ball from their defensive 50 into attack. They were Sydney’s equal for most of the game on Saturday night, registering more disposals and clearances, and only three fewer inside-50s. What hurt them was the Swans’ ability to convert their own clearances into uncontested marks, initiating their fearsome ball movement. In the second half, Essendon could only turn the ball over once per 6.48 Sydney disposals – worse than West Coast’s 2023 season average. The Saints love an uncontested mark. In fact, both sides do. They ranked #1 (St. Kilda) and #2 (Essendon) for marks in 2023. So expect lots of uncontested disposals.

Brad Scott will know that bombing it long from wide positions to a forward line with a Peter Wright-shaped hole in it will play right into Ross Lyon’s hands. The first half of the Swans game, then, offers a glimpse into how Scott might look to unpick one of the stingiest defences in the game. The Bombers kicked with just 52.7 percent of their disposals in the first half, the lowest share on record. Let’s see if it persists under the roof.

Port Adelaide vs. Melbourne

Saturday 30 March, 19.30 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)

A game which SEN, amusingly, has dubbed the “straight sets derby” shapes up as the game of the weekend. The last meeting between these two sides was one of the best games of 2023. Port took the four points that night, helped by a lazy 41-disposal, two-goal, three-vote game from Butters.

The Demons have recovered from a sloppy Opening Round performance against Sydney (although, as is becoming clear, winning at the SCG will be a tall task for any side) to notch comfortable victories against the Bulldogs and Hawks. Port, however, present an entirely different kind of attacking threat. They can slingshot from half-back. They can take marks on the lead or in packs. And they’re perfectly happy to lock the ball inside their attacking 50 and trust the likes of Butters, Rozee and Sam Powell-Pepper to generate scores.

The best way for Melbourne to counter that attacking threat is to get on top in the stoppages, keep the ball down their end of the field, and – most importantly – deny Port the centre corridor. This will likely be the key tactical theme of the game. Every time the Demons manage to slow Port’s ball movement enough to force them to go long the line will be a small win.

These two teams are evenly matched. The difference could hinge on the absence of two key players. Melbourne will almost certainly be without Steven May. He was likely to match up on Charlie Dixon. Instead, the job will likely fall to Adam Tomlinson. He’s big and strong. But doesn’t have the same ability to intercept and generate attacks from deep defensive positions. Port, meanwhile, will probably have to cope without Jason Horne-Francis. His absence will deprive Port of some size and power in the contest.

Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast

Sunday 31 March, 13.00 AEDT (Marvel)

The knock on the Dogs for the past couple of seasons has been that they’re elite between the 50-metre arcs, but – despite some excellent personnel, particularly key forwards – meh inside them. Sunday’s game against the Gold Coast Suns in Ballarat showed us a world where that wasn’t true. The Dogs took 16 marks inside their defensive 50 (and a total of 28 for the day – a club record). But it was their work inside attacking 50 that ultimately made the difference on the scoreboard. They scored 55 points from 13 possession chains originating in that part of the ground – the 13th-most on record, and the most they’ve scored for 13 years. Their forward pressure and accurate kicking for goal was a big part of why the Dogs scored 78 points from turnovers, enough for a +30 differential.

The Eagles’ defence held up reasonably well against the Giants, but lots of things will need to go right for them (and wrong for the Dogs) to prevail on Sunday. Don’t rule it out, though. These two teams met at the same venue, on the same day of the week, in Round 23 last year. The Eagles won by seven points in a massive boilover.

Richmond vs. Sydney

Sunday 31 March, 16.00 AEDT (MCG)

The Tigers held their own for the first half against Port on Sunday before eventually being overwhelmed by their attacking power (no pun intended). Zak Butters in particular wreaked havoc, registering 35 possessions, seven clearances and 13 score involvements. Perhaps understandably, there’s been a fair bit made of the deterioration in Richmond’s ability to apply pressure on their opponents. The AFL website published an entire piece about it (I’m proposing a new rule: only open external links after you finish reading a One Percenters piece). I don’t quite agree with its framing; three games isn’t a sufficient sample size, and it’s totally plausible that Adem Yze’s gameplan involves less application of pressure than Damien Hardwick demanded. The Tigers, after all, did a good job corralling the Blues in Round 1.

But it doesn’t get any easier for them. Sydney might present the most formidable challenge in the game. Just like Port, they stand out for their willingness to go for the jugular and attack through the centre square. If the Swans move the ball with the same speed and fluency they have in their opening three games, there won’t be much that Richmond can do.

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Hawthorn vs. Geelong

Monday 1 April, 15.20 AEDT (MCG)

Hawthorn were +33 for disposals against Melbourne. The problem was, they were almost totally incapable of converting that possession into scoring opportunities. As their possession chain map shows, the Hawks’ biggest problem was a total lack of presence at half-forward. The value of a good half-forward is two-fold: in addition to kicking goals, they’re also vital links in possession chains. The Hawks’ midfielders were also punished for a lack of positional discipline at stoppages to the tune of a -52 points from stoppage differential.

The good news for Hawthorn is that Geelong’s midfield, even as it welcomes back Mitch Duncan, isn’t as good as Melbourne’s. The bad news is that their defence is. The Cats’ backline put on a clinic against the Crows, benefiting from good pressure upfield to constantly intercept (in case you’ve been living under a rock, you might not have heard that Tom Stewart took 10 intercept marks) and start attacks from deep positions and count on their superior forward efficiency to carry the day. Chris Scott will be perfectly happy for that script to play out again on a day where thousands will gather to venerate someone who has become a figure of worship for many Australians. I’m talking, of course, about Tom Hawkins.

What do you think? Did I miss something? Please let me know in the comments below!

PS – I’m still experimenting with this format. It’ll naturally evolve over time as I figure out what works and doesn’t. But if you have ideas for how it could be improved, I’d love to hear them.