Gather Round 2024 preview
The next stage of the South Australian propaganda campaign is about to commence.
Hello! There are a few more of you than last time. I knew there was a market for writing about the mechanics of how Essendon employed an effective press against St. Kilda. Regardless of how many times you’ve read my weekly previews, a hearty welcome to you all. This week we’re off to the best place in the world – South Australia – for the second inaugural Gather Round. So grab your Farmers’ Union Iced Coffee, heat up the parmi or pie floater that’s in the fridge, and make sure to leave room for some Maggie Beer ice-cream and a Cooper’s Pale. It’s time to look at where this weekend’s games will be won and lost.
Adelaide vs. Melbourne
Thursday 4 April, 19.40 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)
Four rounds into the season, and this already feels like a do-or-die game for the Crows. Lose and finals are definitely gone. Win and finals are… still unlikely, but the light at the end of the tunnel looks a little nearer and brighter.
Almost nothing worked for Adelaide against Fremantle. Their disposal was sloppy and tentative. The exhilarating slingshot football that was a hallmark of their play last season was nowhere to be found. The once-potent forward line looked like it was about to apologise and say this had never happened before. But perhaps the loudest alarms were coming from the midfield. Despite splitting clearances, Adelaide’s midfielders couldn’t do any damage whatsoever – the Crows failed to kick a single goal from a possession chain originating from a stoppage win. A worrying theme has emerged: stop Jordan Dawson, and you stop the Crows. Opposition teams, aware that Rory Laird and Matt Crouch can’t do much damage with ball in hand, are double-teaming the Adelaide captain. As a result, Dawson, whose disposal efficiency only dipped below 60 percent once for the whole of 2023, has gone at 57.7 (vs. Gold Coast), 61.5 (vs. Geelong), and 48.1 percent efficiency (vs. Fremantle) to open the season.
Adelaide are 18th in the AFL for scores from clearances. The Dees are first. They look strong, decisive and dangerous. It’s amazing what having a fit forward line can do. Fresh from an impressive – if somewhat fortunate – win against Port Adelaide at the same venue, the Dees will know that the same kind of effort will probably yield a win here, especially with Steven May back in the side. The Crows’ path to victory is narrow. It must go through the centre corridor.
Brisbane vs. North Melbourne
Friday 5 April, 17.10 AEDT (Norwood Oval)
Perhaps I was naive. But I really did think Brisbane were just going through a small blip to start the season. Carlton and Fremantle are good sides – and they should really have beaten Carlton. Beating an out-of-sorts Collingwood side, at Fortress Gabba, was the perfect way to get their fledgling season back on track. I no longer think it’s just a small blip. Last season, the Lions scored with almost half of their inside-50 entries. Across their first three games of 2024, that figure has plummeted to 38 percent – the second-worst in the AFL.
If you’re a side looking to improve your forward efficiency, North Melbourne are an enlivening tonic. North are currently bottom in the AFL for scores, scoring shots, and goals conceded per opposition inside-50 entry. It’s partly a function of North’s average set position being high (and their half-backs pushing forward to aid in ball movement), but it’s just as much about personnel. North fans should have confidence that Alastair Clarkson will eventually figure out how to maximise the quality and composition of his available personnel. But Toby Pink, Kallan Dawson, Bigoa Nyuon and Aidan Corr aren't a core group you can currently rely on to keep out the opposition. Brisbane will have their hands full with a talented young North midfield that’s running neck-and-neck with them for winning clearances. But if they get a handle on them, it’s hard to see North having enough to pull out the win.
(PS – clever of the AFL to host this game at the home ground of the future 20th side.)
Port Adelaide vs. Essendon
Friday 5 April, 20.10 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)
I dedicated half of my most recent Roundabout to discussing the progress that Brad Scott is making in building a pressing system that can effectively prevent Essendon’s opposition from rebounding the ball out of defensive 50. Port will present the Bombers with a different kind of challenge. They move the ball well, but not as well as Sydney. They don’t seek to suffocate games with wide positions like St. Kilda. Instead, Port prefer to play the game in their front half, using their clearance strength and preference for kicking (in 2023, they ranked first for kicks as a share of disposals in the AFL) to quickly move the ball inside their attacking 50 and keep it there.
The key for Essendon will be clearances. In their most recent meeting against Port, they went +4 in stoppage clearances and +19 for contested possessions. So far this season, the Bombers are ranked #1 in the AFL for clearance differential, a very healthy +8 per game. Although Port are blessed with some beautiful kicks at half-back (Bombers fans will not soon forget Dan Houston’s name), they’re not especially adept at rebounding from defensive 50. They ranked 16th in that measure last season and are currently 15th in 2024. It’s fair to see the jury is still out on Port’s new-look defence – they’re still conceding the fourth-most scoring shots per opposition inside-50. If the Essendon Press can crank into gear and hold the ball in their front half for sustained periods of time, they could make a real fist of this.
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West Coast vs. Sydney
Saturday 6 April, 13.30 AEDT (Adelaide Hills)
It’ll happen, that’s for sure.
Fremantle vs. Carlton
Saturday 6 April, 16.20 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)
A dark horse candidate for game of the round. In my season preview, and across some of my writing early on this season, I’ve reiterated that there was one thing which prevented me from treating Carlton as a true Premiership contender: their issues scoring from turnovers. To paraphrase the great Isaiah Berlin, the Blues were like a hedgehog – they knew one big thing. In their case, that one big thing was heavy scores from clearances. It was good enough to give them a five-goal head start in a preliminary final. But it ultimately left them just a bit short of the promised land. And they were running so red-hot in that metric that once it regressed to the mean, as it inevitably would, you wondered about the Blues’ ability to generate match-winning scores.
Well, folks, I might be becoming a believer. So far this season, Carlton’s scoring from clearance has gone from first in the AFL to 15th – about a three-and-a-half goal swing. But their scores from turnovers have, over the same period, gone from 17th to… second. That translates to a four-goal swing. These figures should be taken with a big heaping of salt. The Blues have played four games, while most teams have still played three. Their forward line is running hot. And one of those four games has been against North. But if the Blues are really becoming a more diversified attacking threat, that can effectively move the ball upfield without needing to rely on winning clearances, then they’re contenders.
All of which is to say, the Blues are likely to present the Dockers with a far sterner test than North Melbourne or Adelaide managed. The last meeting between these sides didn’t go well for the Dockers. But if Carlton have improved, so have Fremantle. They’re conceding the fewest scoring shots per opposition inside-50 entry, winning a healthy amount of ball, and scoring respectably once it enters their attacking 50 (currently fifth in the competition). Jye Amiss vs. Jacob Weitering looms as a key battle.
Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong
Saturday 6 April, 20.10 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)
Beyond the very, very occasional English Premier League multi, I’m not a betting man. But if I was, I’d consider putting $10 on the Bulldogs to win the clearance count against Geelong. Under Luke Beveridge (or, perhaps more accurately, under Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore), the Dogs are a fearsome clearance side. Even when lots of other facets of their game weren’t going right last year, the Dogs were still ranked #2 for total clearances and #2 for clearance differential. Geelong, meanwhile, are firming as the competition’s worst clearance side. They’re currently ranked last – by an absolute mile – for clearance differential. And just in case you thought that was a quirk of a small sample size, or playing clearance-dominant sides (both of which are true), the Cats were ranked 16th for clearance differential in 2023.
But here’s the thing: the Cats don’t care. It’s not quite right to say that they’re content to lose clearances. I’m sure they’d rather win them. But they’re supremely confident in the ability of their defence to win the ball back from deep positions and deliver it to a forward line which looks to have re-established something close to its 2022 form. The last time these two sides played each other, in Round 24, the Dogs won because they had the upper hand in clearances and converted that to possession and territory superiority. The Cats knew they wouldn’t play finals, so they put Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron, Mitch Duncan and Cam Guthrie on ice. Three of that quartet will play on Saturday. But there’s reason to believe the Dogs have improved as well. They’re currently ranked third in the competition for points from turnover differential, helped by the gargantuan 12.6 they kicked from turnovers against the Suns in Round 2. Combine their expected stoppage dominance with that kind of pressure and incision, and they have an excellent chance of inflicting the Cats’ first defeat of 2024.
Gold Coast vs. Greater Western Sydney
Sunday 7 April, 12.30 AEDT (Adelaide Hills)
Liam Crowhurst, friend of the newsletter, recently produced some neat data analysing where teams have been taking shots at goal from. The Giants and Suns both stand out. The Suns have been taking lots of shots deep in their forward 50 and with a bias to the right-hand side – especially in general play. That tells me they’re creating inside-50 stoppages, winning the clearance, and dishing it out to their smaller forwards and outside midfielders to finish. The Giants, meanwhile, are basically doing whatever they want. They’re moving the ball so quickly and so cleanly that by the time the ball is inside their attacking 50 (about half a second after they win the ball, it feels like), there’s space everywhere. And with the Giants’ forwards, especially Jesse Hogan, in such good form, they’re able to create separation in contests and shots from high-value positions. No wonder they’re currently averaging more than 50 points per game from defensive-half chains – #1 in the AFL.
Beating the Giants is a tall order at the moment. In order to do it, the Suns will need to dominate clearances and convert them to scores or, at the very least, sustained territorial gains. They will also need to dramatically improve their ability to lock the ball in their front half. In Round 2, the Dogs – not normally noted for their ability to exploit opposition turnovers – kicked a massive 12.6 from chains originating from Suns turnovers. Good thing, then, that the Giants aren’t ranked #1 in the AFL from points from turnover differential. Wait, someone’s just handing me a note…
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Richmond vs. St. Kilda
Sunday 7 April, 15.20 AEDT (Norwood Oval)
Richmond did something against the Swans they hadn’t done very much of this year or last – score from defensive-half chains. 39 points from 79 chains represented their best return in some time, and a big improvement on their 2023 average of 29.3 points per game from defensive-half chains. The Tigers did it on the back of excellent intercept marking (and some Swans turnovers) and fluid ball movement. Had they kicked straight, it would have been an even better return. It was an early glimpse of the style Adem Yze wants to bring to Tigerland. On Sunday, however, the Tigers are facing one of the competition’s best exponents of scoring from the back half. The Saints are currently averaging 46 points per game from defensive-half chains, second only to the Giants.
Given that, this match looks like it could be a back-half shoot-out. But there are some complicating factors. The first is where they’ll be playing. As I wrote last week, the Saints attacked beautifully via the wings against Collingwood in Round 2. But they were playing on the MCG, an oval that’s 141 metres wide. The following week, at Marvel Stadium, Ross Lyon tried to compensate for the narrower dimensions by creating overloads in wide positions before switching it to a vacant centre corridor – but was stifled by an intense Essendon press. Norwood Oval, where these sides will be playing each other on Sunday, is just 110 metres wide. Famously, one of its wings is straight. So it’s hard to see the likes of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Riley Bonner and Jack Sinclair finding much room to operate. It’s likely there’ll be a high number of turnovers. But Richmond will need to capitalise. And the injury-enforced absences of key position stalwarts Tom Lynch and Noah Balta will make that task much harder.
Collingwood vs. Hawthorn
Sunday 7 April, 17.10 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)
The first instalment of the not-at-all tedious Jack Ginnivan Derby will draw the curtain on Gather Round 2024. Collingwood weren’t back to their exhilarating best against the Lions. But they made big strides in fixing the defensive side of their game. They had a +32 tackle differential and had the same number of scoring shots despite having 13 fewer inside-50s. The Lions went scoreless with almost two-thirds of their forward-50 entries. If it’s sustained, that improvement will at least provide Craig McRae with a solid foundation to build on while he continues to tinker with his side’s attack.
By now, Hawthorn’s strengths and weaknesses under Sam Mitchell are becoming apparent. They’re pretty good at winning the ball, but very bad at stopping their opponents. So far in 2024, Hawthorn suffer more than any other side when they lose stoppages, and third-worst at generating intercepts. In short, they need to greatly improve their individual and collective ability to apply effective pressure. But it’s also a personnel issue. Capable key defenders can paper over a lot of cracks. And right now, Hawthorn don’t have the guys down back. The absences of James Blanck and Denver Grainger-Barras are keenly felt. The fact that they’ll be without Mitch Lewis, Luke Breust and Nick Watson against the Pies means Mitchell might need to resort to the voodoo powers that have served the Hawks so well in this match-up. Since Round 1, 2012, Collingwood and Hawthorn have faced each other 17 times. The Hawks have won 14 of those games. In Round 21 last year, they handed the Pies their second-biggest loss of the season, a 32-point loss built on an absolute annihilation from centre bounce clearances (18-3). Just one problem: Lewis, Blanck, and Breust all played. As did a guy called Will Day.
What do you think? Did I miss something? Please let me know in the comments below!