This battle against the elite teams is what I've figured would be the consistent problem for this list. So wasn't disappointed or really surprised at all in finals.
Adelaide cannot play a fast running game against top 4 teams. There is a lack of good pressure forwards, so the other team's half backs and wingers have a field day, and also a lack of a really good one-on-one key defender.
Adelaide cannot play a possession kicking game against top 4 teams. The midfield doesn't have the skill level, you need a Hodge Mitchell Lewis Smith Hill type of group and Adelaide isn't there.
Adelaide cannot play a ground level contested game against top 4 teams. The midfield doesn't have the clearance winning ability.
So it's a contested marking game, trying to move the ball fast enough to get a one-on-one or two-on-two contest on the wing, with a defence that is pretty poor one-on-one compared to a typical top 4 team so they have to put numbers back, and doesn't have great rebounding defenders. Which makes it difficult to get out of the defence and up the field. It's just so easily countered by a quality team with one or more great tall defenders.
I reckon Nicks has done a pretty good job to find a way for this list to be effective. Also I reckon if Hardwick was coach, Fogarty and Keays would be out, two low possession fast pressure dudes would be in, and the whole look would change. Think Worrell taking intercept marks 70 out from the attacking goal rather than 40 out from the defensive goal.
I'm not really sure what the change is to go from 5-8 up to premier. It probably needs someone like Rachele or Curtin to become the a top 5 player in the game? Thilthorpe to take 10 contested marks in every final? Failing that I'm expecting more 5-8 finishes.
I think that's probably a bit more pessimistic than I am on the list, but you've done a really good job identifying the weaknesses and how they translate on-field. They weren't able to generate good enough field position or ball movement to solve those problems in finals. The road to near-term improvement (that makes them actual flag contenders) probably runs through Curtin and Draper making the leap within 2 years. I think Curtin can get there. Draper, no idea, but he'd have to significantly improve from what he showed last season. I'm on an island here, but I think the retirement of Crouch makes them a worse side.
I'm with you on Crouch island. You might be right re: Keays. I'd like to see him try to hit the stat sheet a bit less, and try to make his teammates better a bit more.
Thanks this is great! I'm gonna write an essay
I figured Adelaide would struggle in finals last year even before the Rankine incident, record in the 10 games vs the eventual top 8 teams was:
R4 away loss Gold Coast xMargin -17.6
R5 home loss Geelong xMargin -25.6
R6 home win GWS xMargin +18.6
R7 away loss Fremantle xMargin -13.4
R10 away loss Collingwood xMargin -7.9
R13 home win Brisbane xMargin -33.2 (!!!)
R14 loss Hawthorn xMargin +13.6 (!)
R19 home win Gold Coast xMargin +23.6
R21 home win Hawthorn xMargin -3.2
R23 home win Collingwood xMargin -4.8
So, comfortable home wins against GWS and Gold Coast, neither of whom does very well at Adelaide Oval.
The other wins were probably undeserved, it should have been about 3-7. And 0-4 against the other teams in the top 4.
This battle against the elite teams is what I've figured would be the consistent problem for this list. So wasn't disappointed or really surprised at all in finals.
Adelaide cannot play a fast running game against top 4 teams. There is a lack of good pressure forwards, so the other team's half backs and wingers have a field day, and also a lack of a really good one-on-one key defender.
Adelaide cannot play a possession kicking game against top 4 teams. The midfield doesn't have the skill level, you need a Hodge Mitchell Lewis Smith Hill type of group and Adelaide isn't there.
Adelaide cannot play a ground level contested game against top 4 teams. The midfield doesn't have the clearance winning ability.
So it's a contested marking game, trying to move the ball fast enough to get a one-on-one or two-on-two contest on the wing, with a defence that is pretty poor one-on-one compared to a typical top 4 team so they have to put numbers back, and doesn't have great rebounding defenders. Which makes it difficult to get out of the defence and up the field. It's just so easily countered by a quality team with one or more great tall defenders.
I reckon Nicks has done a pretty good job to find a way for this list to be effective. Also I reckon if Hardwick was coach, Fogarty and Keays would be out, two low possession fast pressure dudes would be in, and the whole look would change. Think Worrell taking intercept marks 70 out from the attacking goal rather than 40 out from the defensive goal.
I'm not really sure what the change is to go from 5-8 up to premier. It probably needs someone like Rachele or Curtin to become the a top 5 player in the game? Thilthorpe to take 10 contested marks in every final? Failing that I'm expecting more 5-8 finishes.
I think that's probably a bit more pessimistic than I am on the list, but you've done a really good job identifying the weaknesses and how they translate on-field. They weren't able to generate good enough field position or ball movement to solve those problems in finals. The road to near-term improvement (that makes them actual flag contenders) probably runs through Curtin and Draper making the leap within 2 years. I think Curtin can get there. Draper, no idea, but he'd have to significantly improve from what he showed last season. I'm on an island here, but I think the retirement of Crouch makes them a worse side.
I also reckon you're wrong about Hardwick and Keays - reckon he'd love him.
I'm with you on Crouch island. You might be right re: Keays. I'd like to see him try to hit the stat sheet a bit less, and try to make his teammates better a bit more.