Week 1 Finals preview
The biggest stats, questions and match-ups heading into the first week of September.
It’s September. As the days get longer – and, if you’re in Melbourne, windier – so the stakes get higher. 207 games later, the curtain has fallen on the Home & Away season. Only nine remain. Finals footy is here. So am I. In this post, I’m previewing all four games of the first week of the 2024 AFL Finals. No tips though, I don’t do those.
Second Qualifying Final
Port Adelaide vs. Geelong
Adelaide Oval
Thursday 5 September, 7.40pm AEST
Recent form:
Port Adelaide: WWWWW
Geelong: WLWWW
Last time they met:
Round 9: Geelong (14.11) def. by Port Adelaide (15.11)
Five stats that matter:
Port Adelaide:
#1 for marks inside 50
#1 for offensive contest win share
#1 for tackles
#2 for kicks as share of disposals
#2 for marks differential
Geelong:
#1 for contested possession share
#1 for ground ball gets
#1 for intercept possession differential
#2 for opposition turnovers
#2 for centre clearances
The big questions:
How will Port adjust in the absence of Houston and Farrell?
Can Geelong limit the damage from stoppages?
Can Port overcome the psychological barrier of finals?
Can Geelong force enough turnovers?
Analysis:
The game between these two sides in Round 9 was the definition of a “game of two halves”. Port stormed out of the gates at Kardinia Park, kicking the first four goals of the game and leading by as much as 49 points. Their lead was built on their star midfield trio (which was actually a quartet on the night, thanks to Ollie Wines turning back the clock) converting stoppage wins into scores by moving the ball forward before Geelong’s renowned defensive system could get set.
But that all changed after half-time. Geelong coach Chris Scott hauled off ruckman Rhys Stanley, who was well beaten by his young opponent, Dante Visentini, and brought on Irishman Oisin Mullin. Mullin, together with his compatriot Mark O’Connor and rugged centre-square midfielder Brandan Parfitt, were instructed to stick to their direct opponents like glue and deny them the space they’d used to cut the Cats to ribbons in the first half. It worked a treat. Deprived of clean stoppage exits, Port lost control of the game. But they’d banked a big enough lead to take the four points back with them to South Australia.
The result of this final is likely to swing, once again, on what happens in the contest. As former Melbourne ruckman turned tactical analyst Jeff White pointed out in a superb clip, Port set up at stoppages in order to enable Butters and Horne-Francis to run through the contest at top speed. Scott’s main task will be to deny them that space.
The other major point of tactical intrigue is how Port will replace Dan Houston (and his backup, Kane Farrell). Houston’s quarterback-style distribution from the back half is absolutely essential to Port’s fast, corridor-reliant, kick-heavy ball movement patterns. The early talk (I’m writing this on Wednesday) is that Darcy Byrne-Jones will line up across half-back. The former All-Australian is defensively diligent, but significantly less accomplished with ball in hand. The absence of Houston will place more responsibility on Aliir Aliir and (especially) Miles Bergman to initiate Port’s back-half chains.
Port love moving the ball up the field quickly to exploit one-on-ones in their attacking 50. But Geelong’s defensive system can counter that in two ways: firstly, they’re the 3rd-best team in the comp (behind only Sydney and the Western Bulldogs) in preventing opposition rebound 50s from becoming inside 50s. And secondly, Scott trusts his defence in one-on-one situations. The effectiveness of Geelong’s team defence, coupled with their marking power inside both arcs, means they’ll be confident of victory if they can limit Port’s ability to damage from stoppages. But that is the million-dollar question.
Second Elimination Final
Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn
MCG
Friday 6 September, 7.40pm AEST
Recent form:
Western Bulldogs: WWLWW
Hawthorn: WWWLW
Last time they met:
Round 8: Western Bulldogs (14.7) def. by Hawthorn (14.14)
Five stats that matter:
Western Bulldogs:
#1 for scores from stoppages
#1 for inside 50 differential
#1 for contested marks
#1 for expected score
#2 for scores from forward half
Hawthorn:
#1 for ground ball gets differential
#1 for preventing opposition scores from defensive half
#1 for defensive contest loss percentage
#2 for intercept possessions differential
#3 for preventing opposition scores from turnover
The big questions:
Can the Dogs work through Hawthorn’s zone and generate enough inside 50s?
Can the Hawks generate enough ground balls inside their forward 50?
Can the Dogs effectively defend in transition?
Will the weather (rain is currently forecast) be a factor?
Analysis:
A fascinating match-up between two of the competition’s most in-form teams. Most people expected the Western Bulldogs to feature in September. Very few people expected the Hawks to make it. Despite the bulk of attention going to the Hawks’ exciting ball movement and bevy of exciting small forwards, it’s their defensive work which has really caught the eye of this correspondent. Compare some stats:
It’s an incredible glow-up, and a testament to both the quality of Sam Mitchell’s coaching, and his players’ ability to execute his instructions. In the back half of the season, the Hawks have been one of the best teams in the competition at suffocating their opponents’ ball movement. A feature of their big wins against teams like Collingwood, Carlton and Adelaide was the sight of those teams not knowing how to effectively move the ball. That’s partly structural, and partly physical. Even by the standards of the AFL, the running power of Hawthorn’s players is impressive, enabling them to plug gaps defensively and spread when on transition.
The previous meeting between this side was just Hawthorn’s second win of the year, and a glimpse of the style that’s won them so many plaudits. Despite losing the clearance count by 16, the Dogs weren’t able to convert that dominance into a field position advantage. The Hawks decisively won the post-clearance battle, recording more kicks (+26), more marks (+25) and an astonishing +52 differential in points from turnover, five goals more than the average conceded by the Bulldogs this year. The Hawks’ tall defenders totally nullified Sam Darcy and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, both of whom recorded negative player ratings for the game.
The fortunes of the Dogs’ talls vs. the Hawks’ smalls appears set to again be the hinge upon which the result of the game could swing (meaning the weather is likely to be a factor). Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge has often pushed Aaron Naughton higher up the ground in order to make use of his excellent endurance and contested marking (and to give Darcy and Ugle-Hagan space to operate inside 50). I think that’s probably the right way to go on Friday night. The Dogs will need to be patient in build-up. Hawthorn thrive on causing turnovers in the mid-zone and quickly pouncing. As good as their defensive profile is, they’re only slightly better than league average at scoring from their back half. If the Dogs’ midfield can get on top, and convert that into repeat inside 50s, they will have the upper hand.
The main personnel difference which Hawthorn will need to confront is the addition of Ed Richards into the Dogs’ midfield mix. His move from the half-back line into the engine room has been one of the most successful positional switches of the season, reminiscent of Hayden Young’s similar move last year. His dynamism and effective ball use has made the Dogs better at advancing the ball up the field from stoppages.
As the younger and less-experienced side, Mitchell’s Hawks have little to lose. They’ve already exceeded the expectations of all but the most rabid Hawthorn fans in 2024. And, right now, the onus is on their opponents to decode their game plan.
First Qualifying Final
Sydney vs. Greater Western Sydney
SCG
Saturday 7 September, 3.20pm AEST
Recent form:
Sydney: WWWLL
GWS: LWWWW
Last time they met:
Round 15: GWS (11.9) def. by Sydney (15.12)
Five stats that matter:
Sydney:
#1 for scoring shots per inside 50
#1 for scores from turnover
#1 for scores from defensive half
#1 for scores from forward half
#1 for metres gained differential
GWS:
#1 for handballs
#1 for hard ball gets
#1 for disposals differential
#2 for rebound 50 rate
#2 for handball receives differential
The big questions:
Who will win the clearance battle?
Can Sydney stop Jesse Hogan and Brent Daniels?
Can GWS stop Sydney’s midfielders hitting the scoreboard?
Can GWS temper the Orange Tsunami?
Analysis:
The two cross-town rivals (have we really settled on the Battle of the Bridge as the name for this rivalry?) approach the game the same way: the best way to win is with skill and verve. But they approach it in slightly different ways. The Giants’ “Orange Tsunami” is built on a foundation of run and carry with extremely aggressive forward handballs. Sydney’s, though no less aggressive, is quite different. As Ricky Mangidis outlines in his excellent tactical dossier, the Swans instead try to pierce the opponent’s first layer of defence as quickly as possible with precise kicking.
Sydney were a slick team with ball in hand last year. But the thing that’s propelled them to the top of the tree, in addition to a clean bill of health, is how efficiently they attack and defend out of stoppages. Last year, the Swans were 14th in opposition scores from stoppages. This year, thanks to the injection of some new personnel and some tactical tweaks, they’ve jumped to third on the same metric. As a result, they lead the AFL in scores from stoppage differential.
What probably elevates the Swans above the Giants is that whereas Sydney can kill you several different ways, GWS prefer to stick with what they know. The Orange Tsunami is powerful. But it’s predictable. Teams have found success against Sydney, especially in the back half of the Home & Away season, by denying them possession with uncontested marks and patiently probing for gaps or even just exploiting the Swans’ slightly undersized key defenders. The jury is out on whether Adam Kingsley’s men are capable of employing that kind of style. Sydney are perfectly happy to play fast. Despite their 3-0 finals record against their older brothers, the Giants might need to play it slow.
First Elimination Final
Brisbane vs. Carlton
Gabba
Saturday 7 September, 7.30pm AEST
Recent form:
Brisbane: WLLWW
Carlton: LWLLL
Last time they met:
Opening Round: Brisbane (12.13) def. by Carlton (13.8)
Five stats that matter:
Brisbane:
#1 for clearances
#1 for marks
#1 for kicks as share of disposals
#2 for intercept marks
#2 for inside 50 differential
Carlton:
#1 for goals per inside 50
#2 for contested possession differential
#2 for opposition rebound 50 rate
#2 for scores from turnover differential
#3 for tackles inside 50
The big questions:
Can Brisbane use their kicking to get through Carlton’s defensive zone?
Can Brisbane stop Patrick Cripps?
Can Carlton prevent the Lions from taking easy shots at goal?
Can Carlton adapt to the likely absence of Charlie Curnow?
Analysis:
The next chapter of an intriguing nascent rivalry. Carlton exacted a modest revenge against the Lions for their Preliminary Final defeat by coming from the clouds to win by a point in Opening Round. Rather a lot’s happened since then. The Lions spent the first month of the season looking like a poor imitation of the side which almost won it all last year, while the Blues looked unstoppable before coming a cropper against the winless Crows and eventually needing to rely on Port beating Fremantle in the final game of the Home & Away season to even make it here.
Squint, and it’s possible to discern similarities in these two teams’ profiles. Both build their game on contested footy (Brisbane are first for contested possession differential, Carlton are second) and prefer to move the ball by foot, even if it’s to a contest (Brisbane are fourth for contested marks, Carlton third). What I suspect will separate them on the night is the Lions’ greater fluency in moving the ball. A persistent criticism of the Blues under Michael Voss is their muscular brand is susceptible to opposition teams moving at speed. It was shown up in the final three quarters of their Round 17 loss to the Giants and (spectacularly) in the Round 22 disaster against the Hawks. The Lions don’t slice you up with run and carry. But they can cut you apart with their excellent kicking. Carlton’s lack of a recognised intercept defender may well haunt them on Saturday night.
Of course, the other significant factor is the likely absence of Charlie Curnow (and other Carlton first-22 players) through injury. I’m going to throw out what might be considered a hot take. This could be good for Carlton. Clearly, Curnow is one of the very best key forwards in the game. But all too often, the presence of him and his partner in crime, Harry McKay, makes Carlton far too predictable when kicking inside 50. And although the duo usually at least halves the contest, Carlton lack the true small forwards to truly take advantage. Losing Curnow may well force Voss’s men to be more creative – and less predictable – going forward. It could be a blessing in disguise, because their road to victory surely lies in limiting the influence of Harris Andrews.