Round 1 2024 preview

Footy's back – for real this time.

Mar 14, 2024

I’m still experimenting with this format. It’ll naturally evolve over time as I figure out what works and doesn’t. But if you have ideas for how it could be improved, please let me know in the comments, via direct message, or on social media!

Carlton vs. Richmond

Thursday 14 March, 19.30 AEDT (MCG)

I wrote in my Opening Round preview that the main thing which made me hesitate to put Carlton in the top tier of Premiership contenders was their difficulties creating scores from turnovers. For the first half of their Opening Round clash at the Gabba, those worries looked prescient. And then the Blues dug in. They moved their defensive set position back to avoid getting caught out by Brisbane’s transitions. They adopted better positioning at stoppages. They kicked straight. But most importantly, they started creating and scoring from turnovers. In the second half, Carlton recorded a +22 score from turnover differential. They wouldn’t have gotten close to beating the Lions without it.
As for Richmond, they need to walk before they can run. Of their many problems against the Suns, perhaps the biggest was that they couldn’t get the ball out of Matt Rowell’s hands. Last season, the Tigers averaged 355.7 disposals per game. On Saturday, they had just 273 – 50 less than any other side playing in Opening Round. Having less of the ball means you feel more pressure to do something spectacular. That’s why the Tigers also recorded just 3.9 disposals per turnover. Yze will treat this game, back in front of the Tiger Army, as a fresh start. The return of Premiership players Dustin Martin, Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis will help.

Collingwood vs. Sydney

Friday 15 March, 19.40 AEDT (MCG)

The addition of Isaac Heeney and Brodie Grundy to Sydney’s midfield in Opening Round led to an immediate improvement in the Swans’ clearance numbers. Not only did they comfortably beat Melbourne in the clearances, a +16 score differential suggests they’ve made progress in fixing their biggest weakness from 2023, when they ranked 14th in that same stat.
Collingwood, however, present an entirely different type of challenge. They won 10 of the 14 games last year where they were beaten in clearances. But very few teams have as good an outside game as Sydney. If they really have added steel to their silk, they are poised to be one of the best teams in the game.
A note about the recent Collingwood discourse: there’s been lots of chatter on social media and talkback radio about how the Pies’ Opening Round defeat, mere days after the airing of a Premiership documentary, shows they’ve lost focus. Mason Cox figures in many of these criticisms. Give me a break. The Pies lost an extremely close game due to a side many pundits are calling flag favourites shooting the lights out. They’ll be fine.

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Saturday 16 March 13.45 AEDT (MCG)

For mine, the highest-variance game of the round. I wouldn’t be shocked by anything between a 30-point Hawthorn win and a 70-point Essendon win. That’s partly because they haven’t played each other since Round 1 last year – but mostly it’s because they play different styles of the same ultra-contested genre.
The Hawks and Bombers were the bottom-two sides for contested possession share throughout 2023. Just 34.4 percent of Hawthorn’s possessions were contested, while 35.7 percent of Essendon’s were. The Hawks love to take the game on with overlapping handball chains and powerful running to create space. No team handballed more often, or as a greater share of their total disposals.
The Bombers did things differently. They sat closer to the middle of the pack in terms of kicking percentage, and had the fifth-most kicks overall. That resulted in them ranking second for marks, and first – by a mile – for fewest opposition tackles.
Where both teams struggled was winning the ball back. Both languished in the bottom three for pressure acts and opposition clangers, and bottom five for opposition marks inside-50. Brad Scott has spoken about making Essendon a better defensive team. Sam Mitchell’s Hawks will be an interesting test of their structure and discipline.

GWS vs. North Melbourne

Saturday 16 March 16.35 AEDT (ENGIE Stadium)

A general observation regarding this and the three other games pitting a team which played in Opening Round against one that didn’t: how will both teams fare physically? The Giants played a taxing game last Saturday but have the miles in their legs. As for North – it’s one thing to train in warm Melbourne weather, it’s another thing to play in Sydney humidity.
If I’m a North fan, the result is secondary. Instead, I’m looking for evidence of further progress on two fronts: exits from stoppage, and attacking transition. The two pre-season games suggested improvements to both. Let’s see how they hold up against one of the sternest tests in the game.

Geelong vs. St. Kilda

Saturday 16 March 19.30 AEDT (GMHBA Stadium)

There’s a high likelihood this game will be determined within the two 50-metre arcs. In 2023, Geelong were ranked third for scoring shots per inside-50 entry but also conceded the third-most scoring shots for every opposition inside-50.
The Saints, meanwhile, were even more polarising. They conceded the third-fewest scoring shots per opposition inside-50 entry, but were stone dead last for generating scoring shots per inside-50. The stoppable force vs. the moveable object?
The other wildcard, somewhat surprisingly for a Round 1 clash, will be injuries. The Saints currently have the longest injury list (by games played) of any side. Jack Sinclair, Dougal Howard, Dan Butler and Hunter Clark will all miss.

Gold Coast vs. Adelaide

Saturday 16 March 20.10 AEDT (People First Stadium)

The two games between these sides in 2023 offer intriguing counterexamples into how this one could play out. In Round 12, the Crows jumped out to a 35-point lead early in the second quarter before the Suns eventually overpowered them (+38 contested differential) to win by four goals on a balmy Saturday night in Darwin.
Two months later, the Crows made another fast start but this time held firm to win by 28 points. The temperature and venue made a difference. So did Matt Crouch. In his first game of the season, the inside midfielder had the equal-most disposals of any player on the ground and helped the Crows comfortably have the better of both clearances and contested possessions.
The Suns showed an improved ability to move the ball quickly in their first competitive hit-out under Damien Hardwick – but the caveat is that they were up against modest opposition (to put it politely) in an undermanned Richmond side playing its first game under new coach Adem Yze.
Having said all that, the outcome will probably hinge on the absence of Taylor Walker. The Adelaide forward will miss the game with a back complaint. That’s the kind of thing that happens when you’re 33.

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Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs

Sunday 17 March 13.00 AEDT (MCG)

Two teams whose biggest weaknesses remain their capacity to generate quality inside-50 entries (and, like the Essendon-Hawthorn and Carlton-Richmond games, another match-up we’ve not seen for almost a whole year). Against Sydney, Melbourne were again inefficient up forward but this time didn’t get enough opportunities to compensate. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, remain something of an enigma: missing finals despite great seasons from star players like Bontempelli, English and Liberatore.
To compensate, both sides used their first draft picks on skilful outside midfielders who will help improve the fluency of their disposal. Caleb Windsor looked great in pre-season but understandably struggled to replicate that form at the SCG. Ryley Sanders, who will make his debut, looked immediately at home in the Dogs’ midfield in the Community Series game against Hawthorn.
The last game between these sides was determined by an unusually efficient forward line performance by the Dees, who kicked goals with 28.3 percent of their inside-50 entries compared to their season average of 22 percent. That efficiency was helped by the absence of Dogs’ key defender Liam Jones, who was subbed out late in the second quarter with a neck injury.

Port Adelaide vs. West Coast

Sunday 17 March 16.00 AEDT (Adelaide Oval)

A game between two sides which, despite both undergoing a fair bit of change over the summer, have very different expectations for the season. Port Adelaide’s prospects won’t be defined by their performances in low-stakes games at the Adelaide Oval. But their fans will still want to see some specific things: an improved ability to defend transitions, a more solid defensive structure with new recruits Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher – and a liberated Aliir Aliir.
As for the Eagles, this is a free hit. No one is expecting them to win away at a top-four side. But as I mentioned in my season preview, Adam Simpson has to pour the foundations for the future. Every week counts.

Fremantle vs. Brisbane

Sunday 17 March 18.50 AEDT (Optus Stadium)

Fremantle’s strengths – map reasonably well onto Brisbane’s weaknesses. When these two teams last played against each other, in Round 21 at Optus Stadium, the Dockers shaded both the contested and uncontested possession counts. Normally that bodes poorly for the Lions: in the seven games they lost last year, they had fewer uncontested possessions each time, and fewer contested possessions five out of seven times. The Lions only prevailed because of their superior forward efficiency.
Both sets of supporters will want their sides to be more difficult to play against this season. In 2023, the Lions and Dockers were in the bottom four for opposition turnovers, instead leaning on their well-organised defensive structures. Dockers fans will also want to see evidence of a greater ability to move the ball out of their back half. Brisbane will pose a stern test: in 2023, they conceded the fourth-lowest rebound 50 rate of any side in the AFL.

What do you think? Is there a stat or trend I missed? Please let me know in the comments below!