Opening Roundabout
Sydney beat Melbourne at their own game, Carlton add a string to their bow, Matt Rowell runs riot, and the Giants take revenge on the Pies.
I’m still experimenting with this format. It’ll naturally evolve over time as I figure out what works and doesn’t. But if you have ideas for how it could be improved, please let me know in the comments or via direct message!
This is the first edition of what I’m provisionally calling Roundabout – a weekly feature where I cover interesting tactical themes from the round that’s just been played. At this stage, I won’t make any strong distinctions between covering a single game (or a small number of them) versus writing some words about each game. It’s likely to evolve naturally and just change from week to week depending on what the round throws up. But since it was Opening Round, and there were only four games, I’ll say something about each.
One more thing before I dive in: my number-one priority is to write things which you, Dear Reader, find interesting – in a format which works. So please, never hesitate to reach out in the comments, via direct message, or even on social media through the One Percenters Twitter and Instagram accounts.
Sydney out-Melbourne the Dees
These two sides were appraised similarly by many pundits heading into 2024: contenders with one or two flaws which might hold them back from winning a Premiership. For the Demons, it was forward line efficiency. For the Swans, it was their strength in the contest. On the evidence of Thursday night, one side has made real progress toward addressing their biggest weakness, while the other still has lots of work to do.
Sydney prevailed in a game that neatly mirrored their Round 24 clash from last year – neck-and-neck for about three quarters before pulling away. Interestingly, the Swans’ win was built on the same foundations that Melbourne have been building on for a few years: namely, contested superiority and scores from turnovers. The Swans won the clearance count 46-34 (and stoppage clearances 37-22) and, as a result, enjoyed a +16 point score from clearance differential. Understandably, most of the credit has gone to Isaac Heeney and Brodie Grundy. Both were excellent. Heeney, predominantly playing as a midfielder, was best on the ground with 18 contested possessions and a game-leading 13 clearances. Grundy, had the second-most clearances of any player on the ground (nine) and outplayed his former teammate Max Gawn in the ruck.
One of the things I thought was most noticeable about the game was simply how much better Sydney adapted to the humid and slippery conditions. Correctly surmising that territory would be more important than normal, the Swans kicked with 65 percent of their disposals, well above their 2023 average. The Demons, meanwhile, went pretty much at their exact average from last season (I suspect this was partly because of a conflict between the players’ natural instincts and coach Simon Goodwin’s instructions, but I’m going to wait a few weeks to see if my hypothesis bears out). It was striking how often Melbourne’s players fumbled the ball, which forced them into rushed disposals. Jack Viney, Tom Sparrow, and Christian Salem were the chief offenders, recording 19 clangers between them. Sydney weren’t exactly clean, either. But they got better as the game wore on.
There’s been a lot written, including in this very newsletter, about the Dees’ determination to use the ball better going inside attacking 50. Yeah. That didn’t happen on Thursday. Melbourne turned it over a staggering 27 times within 75-100 metres of their attacking goals. Just two of their nine goals came from possession chains originating in their back half. Poor disposal meant the Dees simply struggled to generate good-quality opportunities from anything other than forward-half turnovers (five of their nine goals came from chains originating within 50 metres of attacking goals). Executing clean forward-50 entries on a dry night in pre-season is very different to doing it on a warm Thursday night at the SCG against a good pressure team. If I were a Dees fan, I wouldn’t be despondent quite yet. But we’ll need to wait at least a week longer to see the new Melbourne.
There were some unique factors which make me reluctant to declare Sydney’s clearance weakness a thing of the past. Beyond the motivation of playing against his old team, Brodie Grundy clearly knew how to play against Max Gawn. He would frequently come over to Gawn’s side of the stoppage as the ball was being bounced or thrown up, legally impeding Gawn’s run at the ball and initiating physical contact. And injuries to a few of Sydney’s usual inside midfielders gave Heeney an opportunity to shine. But the manner of the win would have been extremely gratifying for coach John Longmire and his assistants.
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A game of two halves at the Gabba
Footy is a funny game. I was even more grateful than usual to be at Womadelaide, because it meant I wasn’t able to fire off a hot take during the second quarter about how Brisbane would win the flag or how Carlton would miss the eight. If somehow you’re reading this without knowing the result, the Blues came back from a 46-point deficit to win by a point – snapping the Lions’ 14-game winning streak at the Gabba.
The game was gloriously symmetrical. Brisbane roared to an early lead by turning Carlton’s biggest weapon – stoppages – against them. Despite winning just one more clearance, the Lions outscored the Blues 4.2 to just one behind from stoppages. Even when the Blues did get their hands on the ball, the Lions were quick to turn the ball over and exploit Carlton’s high defensive position, repeatedly cutting the Blues to ribbons with beautiful transitions from deep positions. Across the entire game, the Lions kicked seven goals from possession chains originating from further than 100 metres from their attacking goal. One of the most impressive things about the Lions’ transition offence is their forwards’ ability to create vertical leading lanes across the entire length of the ground, receive the ball, then quickly turn to kick the ball to the onrushing midfielders. The Blues had no answer.
Until they did. Carlton’s comeback was built on two foundations: anticipation, and improved ball movement (and accurate kicking, but that’s not very interesting). Let’s talk about anticipation.
Early in the third quarter, Charlie Curnow turned the ball over under pressure to Lions defender Jack Payne. Rather than opting for the short kick to Cam Rayner, Payne tried to pick out Hugh McCluggage in the centre square. Blake Acres immediately saw that the kick floated high enough for him to reach and ran to effect a spoil. Instead of kicking it forward, he saw Adam Cerra (a better kick) in front of him. Cerra received the handball and found Matt Kennedy, who finished off with a goal. That’s what a score from a turnover is meant to look like. Carlton didn’t have a strong turnover game in 2023 (they ranked 11th on scores from turnover differential). Their scoring was generated to an unusual degree by stoppages. In the second half of Friday night’s game, they kicked 6.1 from turnovers (a +22 differential) – to go with a +16 score from stoppage differential). It was good coaching by Michael Voss, brilliant execution by his players, and perhaps early evidence of a more diversified attacking threat from the Blues in 2024.
As for the Lions, I wouldn’t start panicking just yet. Yes, the result was demoralising – and exacerbated by the news that Keidean Coleman has ruptured his ACL. But based on the expected score, which had them comfortably ahead, they would still have won this game eight times out of 10, even with Carlton’s second-half performance. The major concern would be how closely the third quarter of this game (where the Blues outscored the Lions 7.2 to 1.6) resembled the third quarter of Brisbane’s opening game from last year, where they had no response to Port’s domination. Plan A is powerful. But Plan B needs to be more than “Plan A, but better.”
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The Suns set on Richmond
Beyond the theatre of Damien Hardwick lining up against his former side, this game will be remembered for Matt Rowell recording 20 clearances, the second-most since VFL/AFL records began. His utter dominance helped Gold Coast pile on scores from stoppages. But perhaps the most telling statistic of the match was the 5.3 (to 2.0) that the Suns kicked from intercepts in the first half alone. Time and time again, Richmond turned the ball over coming out of their back half and were powerless to prevent the Suns’ forwards, particularly Ben King, from taking marks inside 50.
The game was effectively over at half-time. Richmond’s ability to improve their pressure and generate scores in the third quarter will provide new coach Adem Yze with some solace. But it was still a bruising introduction to life in the big league.
The bug and the windshield
In an excellent, even game played at a frenetic pace, GWS defeated Collingwood by virtue of a ludicrously good performance in front of goal. Their +38 score/expected score differential was apparently the biggest since analytics types started paying attention. The Giants’ top three goalscorers, Callum Brown, Brent Daniels and Jesse Hogan combined for 13.2 between them. The Magpies, meanwhile, slightly underperformed their expected score.
Incredible accuracy aside, almost all aspects of the Giants’ attacking game functioned well. They kicked six goals from possession chains originating within 75 metres of their attacking goal, seven starting between 75-100 metres, and five starting from 100 or more metres away. (I’m planning a longer piece about how effectively they use space when moving the ball upfield.) There was just one piece of the puzzle missing. The Giants laid only one tackle inside their attacking 50 all game – well down on their league-leading 12.6 per game last season. According to Lachlan McKirdy, that’s just the 10th time a side has had one or fewer inside-50 tackle and won since 2009. It’s a credit to the Magpies’ disposal under duress, and credit to the Giants for still generating a winning score.
Last year, Collingwood were the windshield, recording the biggest positive expected score differential of any side. On Saturday night, they were the bug. It happens.
Odds and ends
In a game where players were constantly fumbling, Nick Blakey stood out for his composure and ability to progress the ball. There were eight bounces in the entire game. He had six of them.
Matt Rowell will undoubtedly win the three Brownlow votes. But a word for Wil Powell and Malcolm Rosas. The former had 11 intercepts and generated great run off half-back, while the latter could be in the process of making Suns fans forget about Izak Rankine.
It wasn’t a great day for Tigers fans. Being so easily outpointed in clearances was especially concerning for a midfield that supposedly thrives on winning contested ball. But I’ll reserve judgement on their progress under Yze until Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch are back in the side.
By his standards, Toby Greene had a quiet game. That feels slightly ominous.
I’ll repeat what I wrote in the introduction: the format and contents of the weekly round review are up for grabs. Please let me know how it could be improved, and/or if there was anything interesting you noticed from the Opening Round you’d like to bring to my attention. I’d love to hear from you.
Back on Thursday with the Round 1 preview.