Opening Round 2024 preview

The first of what I hope will be a recurring feature.

I’m still experimenting with this format. It’ll naturally evolve over time as I figure out what works and doesn’t. But if you have ideas for how it could be improved, please let me know in the comments or via direct message!

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The real stuff is upon us. I would say finally, although the season seems like it starts earlier every single year. Season 2024 begins not with Round 1, but with Opening Round, and not in Melbourne, but instead in disputed territory north of the Murray. I’d probably consider myself neutral-to-mildly-sceptical of the Opening Round endeavour. It feels like the AFL is being slightly insecure by taking games to New South Wales and Queensland in such a conspicuous fashion. Plus, it compromises the draw by introducing early byes. But, on the other hand, it means footy one week sooner. 

Each round, time and motivation permitting, I’ll write some words about the games ahead. They won’t include tips or predictions – mostly because I think they’re a mug’s game, partly because I’m bad at footy tipping. Besides, that’s not what I want to do with One Percenters. I want this newsletter to become a home for analytical, intelligent, collaborative discussion about the game. That means looking beyond the horse race and underneath the surface.

So instead of making predictions, I’ll try to identify the important numbers and trends that will define the games. What will one team try to do? How will their opponents respond? Think of it like a roadmap for the round ahead. Hopefully that makes sense. Right. Let’s get into it.

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Sydney vs. Melbourne

Things to watch out for:

• Sydney’s midfield mix without expected first 23 players like Luke Parker and new recruit Taylor Adams. Brodie Grundy and James Jordon are playing their first games for the Swans, while Isaac Heeney will spend more time in the middle. He’s only attended more than half of centre bounces once in the last two years. Last year, John Longmire sometimes struggled to find the right balance between attack and defence – as a result, Sydney leaked lots of scores from clearances.

• Melbourne’s forward-half game. Forward efficiency cost the Demons the flag last year. Despite ranking #1 for inside 50s, they could only translate that to sixth place for goals per game. It’s not just forward personnel. It’s how the ball is delivered there. Too often, the Dees bombed long from deep positions, which was meat and drink for set defences. An immediate debut for the exciting Caleb Windsor and the prospect of more midfield time for the silkily-skilled Christian Salem suggests Goodwin knows that the scalpel might yield better results than the sledgehammer.

Last time they met: Sydney 56-77 Melbourne, Round 24 2023 (SCG). An arm wrestle for the first three quarters until the Dees – whose ladder position couldn’t change regardless of the result – pulled away from a tired Swans outfit.

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Brisbane vs. Carlton

Things to watch out for:

• Have Carlton developed a turnover game? There are three ways you can score in Aussie rules: from a kick-in after a behind, from a stoppage, and from a turnover. The latter accounts for more than half of all scores. During their resurgence last year, the Blues maxed out on scoring from stoppages. But they remained mediocre when it came to exploiting turnovers. Across the entire Home & Away season, the Blues ranked 11th in points from turnover differential. The Lions, meanwhile, were first on the same ranking.

• Brisbane’s ability to respond if they lose the contested possession count. In their seven defeats in 2023, they had fewer contested possessions five times. The key is that their opponents punished the dangerous Lions by keeping the ball away from them. In all seven of those games, the Lions were on the wrong end of the uncontested possession differential.

Last time they met: Brisbane 79-63 Carlton, Preliminary Final 2023 (Gabba). The Blues jumped out of the gates, kicking the first five goals, before the Lions reeled them in to make their first Grand Final since 2004. The Lions narrowly edged the contested and uncontested possession count.

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Gold Coast vs. Richmond

Things to watch out for:

• A battle between a team trying to become more like the Damien Hardwick Tigers and a team becoming less like them. I’m interested to see how the Tigers’ disposal mix changes in their first competitive hit-out under Adem Yze. One thing we’ve heard so far is that the Tigers will try to set up more scoring chains by foot. Yet in their final pre-season game, against Collingwood, they actually had fewer kicks and more handballs than their 2023 averages.

• Meanwhile, the Suns are also – on the evidence of pre-season – going to kick it less. Against Greater Western Sydney, they kicked it just 57.5 percent of the time, way down on their 2023 season average of 65 percent, which ranked second in the AFL, just behind Brisbane. They also forced more turnovers, 74, against their 2023 average of 67.9. 

• Bonus: I’m interested to see how the Suns generate more run (stop the snickering). They were desperately staccato at times last year. Hardwick experimented by putting the club’s #2 all-time goalscorer Alex Sexton at half-back throughout pre-season. Let’s see if that persists.

Last time they met: Richmond 48-72 Gold Coast, Round 7 2023 (Marvel). A drab game decided by Richmond’s inaccuracy – they actually had one more scoring shot than the Suns. The only other noteworthy point is that this was the Suns’ only game where they registered fewer than half as many contested possessions as uncontested possessions. Stuart Dew clearly identified that the Tigers had flaws in their defensive zone that could be exploited with patient ball movement. Will Hardwick do the same?

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GWS vs. Collingwood

Things to watch out for:

• Two closely-related descendants of the Richmond style duke it out in another preliminary final rematch. Collingwood fans (who were otherwise very kind) pointed out that in my season preview, I neglected to mention the Pies’ extraordinary ability to kill games once they got ahead by forcing repeat stoppages and shutting down opposition run. The preliminary final between these two was a prominent example. It was a white-knuckle ride, but there actually weren’t any scores for the final five minutes.

• One of the Giants’ key strengths last year was the ability of their “high half-forwards” in Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford to effect turnovers and restrict opposition rebound 50s. Only Melbourne and Port Adelaide conceded fewer rebound 50s. That looms as a key battle in this match – no team is as effective at initiating attacks from their back half as the Pies.

• Bonus: Will the Pies persist by foot? In their final pre-season match against Richmond, they recorded 259 kicks – about 10 percent more than in any game from 2023. 

Last time they met: Collingwood 58-57 GWS, Preliminary Final 2023 (MCG). A marvellous, tight game (seriously, just go back and watch the highlights) full of ebbs and flows that neither side deserved to lose. But in elite sport, someone must. The Pies prevailed by a single behind.

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What do you think? Is there a stat or trend I didn’t talk about? Please let me know either by direct message or in the comments below!