2025 Roundabout, #6
The quarter-time huddle.
Hello, and Happy Easter. I hope every reader had their fill of family, friends, footy, chocolate and leisure.
It feels like the season has just started. However, 53* of 207 Home & Away games have already been played. It’s quarter-time in season 2025! So this week, instead of looking under the microscope at how Collingwood blunted Brisbane, examining how Melbourne (or Richmond) ambushed an anaemic Fremantle (or Gold Coast), or picking through the smoking ruins of one of North Melbourne’s worst defeats of the Bad Era, I thought I’d share my thoughts on how each side is faring. What’s working? What isn’t? And what have the first six games (or five, in the case of Essendon and Gold Coast) possibly told us about what they can achieve this season?
Adelaide
The good: Adelaide have rediscovered the scoring power that made them the league’s highest-scoring side in 2023. And, because unlike that season, it’s not all built on the back of Taylor Walker, it feels much more sustainable. There are some questions about how a three-and-a-half tall set-up will fare in winter, but for now, it’s a dangerous point of difference.
The bad: They’ve lost two of their three difficult games, and so far, have only beaten sides they beat last year. Until the dour Round 6 victory against GWS (played in difficult conditions), the Crows were leaking an alarming amount of goals from their own back half and defensive 50.
Key stat/s:
1st for scores from back-half differential (4th in 2024)
1st for first possession to clearance (17th in 2024)
Grade: 8/10
Brisbane
The good: The reigning Premiers are doing what they couldn’t do last season – they’re banking wins early on. And they’re doing it despite being well below their best, and still missing some important players through injury. To paraphrase an old saw from tennis, you can’t win flags in March and April, but you can lose them. The Lions are still in the hunt.
The bad: The downside of banking wins while not playing well is… Brisbane aren’t playing especially well. The 52-point defeat against Collingwood wasn’t quite as bad on expected score as it panned out, but it still indicated that there are areas they need to fix. Principally, Brisbane are much less lethal in attack. The post-Joe Daniher forward line remains a work in progress.
Key stat/s:
1st for marks differential (1st in 2024)
14th for scoring shots per inside-50 entry (3rd in 2024)
Grade: 7/10
Carlton
The good: After two open training sessions in the last fortnight, Carlton’s season has a pulse. Particularly pessimistic supporters (and over-eager haters) might have thought West Coast or North Melbourne were a chance, but the Blues dispatched them with consummate ease. Most of Carlton’s contest and defensive numbers are standing up.
The bad: Premiership contenders, which the club and its hundreds of thousands of supporters gave every indication of believing Carlton was this year, typically don’t drop their first four games. They typically don’t let a 41-point lead against the wooden spooners slip through their grasp. Carlton’s season isn’t moribund. But they’re coming from a long way back, and a harder run of games awaits.
Key stat/s:
1st for first possession at stoppage (1st in 2024)
2nd for inside-50 differential (10th in 2024)
17th for scoring shots per inside-50 entry (4th in 2024)
Grade: 4/10
Collingwood
The good: Since Opening Round, everything has gone right for Collingwood. They’ve easily bested some formidable opponents, their game appears to be in superb order, and they’ve still got the likes of Dan Houston and Lachie Schultz to return to the side. Right now, the Pies are in the first rung of Premiership contenders.
The bad: It’s only a single data point, in challenging conditions, but the convincing first-up defeat to GWS may suggest Collingwood’s style struggles against that profile of side. The Giants are happy to defend in a low block, trusting the quality of their back line to get them out of trouble and launch attacks. The Pies will want a better answer against them (or sides that play reasonably similarly, like Hawthorn and Geelong) if they’re to lift the cup for the second time in three years.
Key stat/s:
1st for opposition scores from stoppage (11th in 2024)
2nd for opposition scores from turnover (12th in 2024)
Grade: 9/10
Essendon
The good: Maybe I should call this specific section “the neutral”. Essendon have performed more-or-less exactly how I and many others expected. Their first five games have yielded, in order, a respectable loss, a poor loss (which earnt them the Crisis Club Baton for the week), a surprise win, a convincing win, and a deeply unconvincing win. 3-2 is a good return, even if everyone acknowledges there’s still a long way to go.
The bad: If Bombers fans thought their side was a chance of doing something meaningful this season, that hope was probably excised on the sunny Saturday afternoon the Crows kicked 25 goals. Essendon are a flakey side without the talent – or robustness of system – to match it with the league’s best. And the season-ending injuries to Nick Bryan and Sam Draper have created a big problem in the ruck division.
Key stat/s:
1st for clearance differential (9th in 2024)
17th for defensive 50 to score chains (12th in 2024)
17th for opposition defensive 50 to forward 50 chains (14th in 2024)
Grade: 5/10
Fremantle
The good: It could be worse? Fremantle did reasonably well to right themselves after a bitterly disappointing first two rounds. A genuinely impressive and resilient win against the Western Bulldogs was sandwiched between two easy kills against West Coast and Richmond. The slip-up against Melbourne last weekend was bad but not entirely without explanation. The Dockers are still in touch.
The bad: Most of the criticisms one could have leveled against Fremantle and coach Justin Longmuir (best described as passivity on both sides of the ball and in the coach’s box) can still be leveled against them. I’m not sure enough lessons have been learnt. And 3-3 might be a mirage. Through the first six rounds, the Dockers have had the second-easiest draw. For the next six, they’re scheduled to have the second-hardest. We will learn much more about them between now and the end of May.
Key stat/s:
1st for hard ball gets (13th in 2024)
14th for defensive 50 to forward 50 chains (7th in 2024)
16th for kicks as a share of disposals (17th in 2024)
Grade: 4/10
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Geelong
The good: They look exactly as good – probably a bit better, in fact – than the side which was leading last year’s preliminary final with two minutes to go. Bailey Smith has been a great addition, adding more metres and dynamism, and Patrick Dangerfield makes a hell of a makeshift full forward. The Cats may lack the polish of some of the other contending sides, but they make up for it with physical strength, running power, and the quality of their system.
The bad: You could mount a solid argument that, between losing to St Kilda at Marvel (yes, I know the Saints seem to always win this match-up) and giving up a decent half-time lead to Brisbane the next week, Geelong are a game behind where they ought to be. That’s never really bothered Chris Scott’s side before, but in another season where it looks like the competition for the top-four will be fierce, that could make a difference.
Key stat/s:
2nd for turnover differential (1st in 2024)
1st for scoring shots per inside-50 entry (7th in 2024)
Grade: 7.5/10
Gold Coast
The good: Although the defeat to Richmond at Marvel on Saturday night took some gloss off the start to the season (turns out the hoodoo belongs to Damien Hardwick specifically, not Richmond in general), this has still been by far the best start to a season in Gold Coast’s modest history. Hardwick appears to have added speed in the back half and polish in the front half to what was already a formidable turnover-generating machine. Have the Suns arrived? I’m not sure yet. But the fact it’s even a plausible question suggests significant progress has been made.
The bad: Although it was a “win” on expected score, losing to Richmond still feels like a major missed opportunity. Having already played what currently look like the four weakest sides in the comp (and Adelaide), the Suns have had the softest start to the season of any side. Their next five games are predicted to be the sixth-hardest.
Key stat/s:
1st for scores from turnover differential (9th in 2024)
1st for inside-50 differential (6th in 2024)
1st for defensive 50 to forward 50 chains (5th in 2024)
Grade: 8/10
Greater Western Sydney
The good: They’ve probably shown enough to suggest they’ll again be there in September. It’s hard to read too much into the Giants’ wins – they’ve come against a seemingly undercooked Collingwood, and then two of the competition’s worst sides. Ditto for their defeats to Hawthorn and Adelaide. My two biggest questions – could Adam Kingsley’s side cope with less midfield depth, and how would Jake Stringer affect the balance of a lethal forward line – haven’t been definitively answered yet. The Giants are doing most of the things they should be doing.
The bad: The pessimistic case is that the Giants have played three games against sides you could plausibly call their fellow contenders (even if that’s probably a touch generous to the Crows at this stage) and dropped two of them. Although neither were blow-outs, the fact they both happened in adversarial weather conditions suggests a potential weak point: it isn’t always possible to play back-half transition footy. Do the Giants have enough different ways to win?
Key stat/s:
1st for opposition scoring shots per inside-50 entry (8th in 2024)
1st for opposition scores from back half (5th in 2024)
15th for inside-50 differential (14th in 2024)
Grade: 7/10
Hawthorn
The good: 4-2 represents an almost 100 percent improvement on Hawthorn’s start to 2024 – and I suspect there’s still another gear to find. Sam Mitchell’s side have put themselves in a strong position for a double chance, traded punch for punch with Geelong on Easter Monday, and now move into the easiest part of their fixture. Winning while not playing particularly well and missing some important players, especially when your coach has the nous to fix things on the fly, is a pretty good place to be.
The bad: Despite bringing in Josh Battle and Tom Barrass, Hawthorn are currently weaker defensively than they were at the back half of last season. They’ve declined both in terms of their ability to prevent opposition inside-50s as well as their ability to defend inside 50. It hasn’t cost them very much on the scoreboard just yet, but it is, as they say, a watch.
Key stat/s:
16th for opposition forward-50 ground ball gets (1st in 2024)
8th for opposition inside-50s (2nd in 2024)
10th for score from turnover differential (4th in 2024)
Grade: 7.5/10
Melbourne
The good: They won a game, that’s nice. The Demons have toiled through a genuinely difficult opening six games – the second-hardest, according to this piece on the AFL website – while missing several key players. They should win their next two games. Steven May will be back soon. Most of their underlying numbers don’t look quite as bad as the results have been. And cynical fans might also venture that their start to the season has brought forward the demise of a coach whose style they believe is no longer fit for modern footy.
The bad: It’s, uh, mostly been bad. Five straight defeats to start the season, only one of which was respectable, probably answered the question of what sort of side the Demons will be this year. The celebrated GLOMP (Gawn, Lever, Oliver, May, Petracca) isn’t a flag-winning core anymore. Instead, they’re looking as though age and injuries are beginning to catch up with them. And Melbourne, despite looking as though they’ll finish well outside the top eight, don’t currently have a first-round draft pick in 2025. They traded it to Essendon.
Key stat/s:
18th for opposition scoring shots per inside-50 entry (1st in 2024)
16th for scores from stoppage differential (3rd in 2024)
4th for defensive 50 to forward 50 chains (11th in 2024)
Grade: 3/10
North Melbourne
The good: I can easily find two positives. The first is the dambusting, euphoric 59-point smashing of Melbourne in Round 2. Overwhelming a recent Premiership side like that seemed to do more than just hint at the future – it felt like kicking open the doors of the Serious Club Saloon. Alas. The second positive, and one with no caveats, is the emergence of Paul Curtis. Is he a small forward? A medium forward? He’s currently one of the AFL’s best forwards, full stop. North’s fans deserve larger crumbs of solace. But at least they have that one.
The bad: Pretty much everything else. The optimism of the first three games has evaporated, leaving behind a boiled lump of resentment and unhappiness. North’s three most recent games all represent different kinds of failure: against Sydney, the failure to meet heightened expectations, against Gold Coast, competitiveness and then falling off a steep cliff, and then something like rock bottom against Carlton on Good Friday. Until the latter, I genuinely believed North were improving. Now, I’m not sure. Unfortunately for North’s players, coaches, and the club’s long-suffering fans, things don’t get any easier. Their next five games are forecast to be the third-hardest faced by any side.
Key stat/s:
6th for scoring shots per inside-50 entry (18th in 2024)
17th for opposition scores from turnover (18th in 2024)
18th for opposition scores from stoppage (17th in 2024)
Grade: 2/10
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Port Adelaide
The good: I’ve written here about just how significant the changes to Port’s ball movement scheme from last season to this one have been. Six games in, despite some significant teething pains, there is real evidence of it working. At 1-3, and with grudge matches against Hawthorn and Sydney on the horizon, things looked fairly bleak. Two impressive and quite different performances later, Port are 3-3 and things look much brighter. They’re no certainties to make finals from here. But there’s progress.
The bad: I have no doubt that when Ken Hinkley and Josh Carr sat down over the summer to rejig Port’s ball movement scheme, receiving more high-quality possessions on the outside of the contest and converting them into high-quality inside-50 entries was a prime objective. But I’m equally certain that becoming a poor contested side – which is what Port currently are – wasn’t part of the plan. The search for balance continues. Right now, I’m not convinced that, despite a new style, the old frailties aren’t still there.
Key stat/s:
14th for metres gained per disposal (3rd in 2024)
13th for kicks as a share of disposals (2nd in 2024)
18th for contested possessions as a share of possessions (6th in 2024)
Grade: 7/10
Richmond
The good: Many serious footy people thought Richmond would struggle to win a game all season. They won their first game, coming back from 41 points down against a side many of the same serious people thought may contend for this year’s Premiership. They showed serious glimpses against the reigning Premiers. And then they jagged another win – against the side led by their former coach, no less. OK, based on expected score, Richmond shouldn’t have won either of those games. But they did. And the green shoots are everywhere. I think people expected Sam Lalor to be good. I don’t think as many expected Seth Campbell to be good. The kids – and the old guys teaching them the right way to do things – are alright. Oh, and they hold North Melbourne’s first round pick.
The bad: The Tigers have had a great start to the season. And me prattling on about expected wins won’t (and nor should it) wipe any smiles off faces. But it’s slightly illusory. Richmond are currently 17th on the expected wins ladder – behind North Melbourne. Yes, it’s been a great start. And yes, they could plausibly win as many as four of their next five games. But there’s still a very long way to go. And – rightly or wrongly, I don’t want to prosecute this particular issue here – the choice to reinstate Noah Balta into the side as soon as his club-imposed suspension was over has left a sour taste in the mouth of much of the broader footy world.
Key stat/s:
17th for scores from stoppage differential (16th in 2024)
17th for scores from turnover differential (17th in 2024)
18th for defensive 50 to forward 50 chains (13th in 2024)
Grade: 8/10
St Kilda
The good: Everyone wrote off St Kilda off before the season started. Bottom four. Irrelevant. Aimless. So it must have felt very sweet when the Saints knocked off two of last year’s preliminary finalists to go 3-1. A lot of people – some of them wilfully, it feels like – are determined to not understand what St Kilda (the club) is doing in terms of its draft and trade strategy and play style.
The bad: As good as the first four games were, reality has bitten at Moorabbin. Their last two results have shown that, as game as they are, there is still a big gap between them and the best. And, despite their improved scoring power, there are some concerning trends: right now, the Saints at worse at moving the ball than they were last season. So, as fun as poking an eye in the footy establishment must have felt, the question lingers: where are the Saints going?
Key stat/s:
4th in scoring shots per inside-50 entry (13th in 2024)
17th in defensive 50 to forward 50 chains (4th in 2024)
14th in scores from back half differential (5th in 2024)
Grade: 6.5/10
Sydney
The good: Look. Dean Cox has had a rough start to life as a senior AFL coach. But things aren’t as bad as a 2-4 record makes them appear. It’s reasonable for a new coach – especially when he/she takes over from such a stalwart as John Longmire – to need some time to adjust. And he’s been unlucky with injuries and the second-hardest start to the season any club has faced. We know there’s a very good side in here. We might just have to wait a bit longer to see it.
The bad: There’s a fair bit more bad than good. Despite preaching continuity from the Longmire era, Cox has made some positional (Tom McCartin up forward, Chad Warner to a half-forward flank) and tactical changes (a higher defensive press) that haven’t yielded much fruit so far. The first year is a free hit. But missing finals would be a poor result for such a good list.
Key stat/s:
14th for scores from forward half (1st in 2024)
2nd for opposition defensive 50 to forward 50 chains (4th in 2024)
13th for opposition rebound 50 rate (1st in 2024)
Grade: 4/10
West Coast
The good: They played a very good half against Brisbane at the Gabba? They’ll get a Band 1 compensation pick if co-captain Oscar Allen leaves? That’s thin gruel. So how about this: Andrew McQualter has actually started the rebuild. He’s regularly putting out the youngest 23 in the AFL. He’s prioritising giving games to first- and second-year players. Some will make it, a fair few won’t. Rebuilds are about finding out who’s who. Some of that first group, like Archer Reid, Brady Hough, Tyrell Dewar and Tom Gross are already putting their hands up. He’s also done this while attempting to implement an entirely new game plan, more or less 180 degrees removed from his predecessor, Adam Simpson. It’s not easy. It will frequently be ugly. But with each week, West Coast’s future comes slightly more into view.
The bad: Simple – it has been ugly for several seasons now, and it will remain ugly for several more seasons. Even the worst teams win games somewhere. But if the Eagles can’t beat Melbourne in Round 8 or Richmond in Round 9, it might be time to start wondering when the win will come.
Key stat/s:
18th for first possession at stoppage (15th in 2024)
18th for opposition scores from turnover (16th in 2024)
18th for kick retention (16th in 2024)
Grade: 2/10
Western Bulldogs
The good: They’ve kept touch with the leading pack while weathering a significant injury crisis. That crisis is now abating. 3-3 could have been 5-1 with a bit more luck and gumption against Fremantle and Brisbane. As the prophecy foretold, a bearded saviour (Marcus Bontempelli) returned on Easter Sunday. And Sam Darcy has blossomed into perhaps the game’s best key forward, and the knee injury he suffered against St Kilda wasn’t quite as bad as first feared.
The bad: Sam Darcy’s knee injury might not have been as bad as feared – but it’s still pretty bad. And despite the reasonable job Luke Beveridge’s side have done hanging onto the coattails of the leading pack, things are about to get much harder (yes, even with Bontempelli). Their next five games are predicted to be the hardest any side will face.
Key stat/s:
2nd for scores from stoppage differential (1st in 2024)
1st for defensive half chains to scores (7th in 2024)
1st for opposition defensive 50 to attacking 50 chains (1st in 2024)
Grade: 5/10
Semi-fun facts and figures:
Shout out to friend of the newsletter Perri, who correctly answered the trivia question I asked during the week on Twitter: up to Gather Round, one side had clearly scored most of its points from general play shots (as opposed to set shots). The correct answer is Collingwood, who had scored 52.69% of their points from general play shots through Gather Round.
Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson are two of the best footy writers going around. In addition to their always-fascinating pieces for the ABC, they’ve recently launched a new initiative: a curated selection of writing from independent writers called This Week in Football. I was lucky enough to contribute a piece to last week’s issue (about scoring trends in the AFL since 2021) – but you should read every piece and subscribe.
There are currently 136 players in the AFL with a 100 percent “first possession to clearance” rate, meaning that whenever they’ve had the first possession at a stoppage, their side has eventually won the clearance. Most of those players are beneficiaries of small sample sizes. Of the 136, the player with the second-highest average number of first possessions is Harry Boyd, who had four in his sole game. The player with the most? Why, Marcus Bontempelli, of course. He had eight first possessions in his comeback game against St Kilda, all of which resulted in clearances for the Western Bulldogs. Other players who figure prominently in this metric include Jason Horne-Francis (5.2 first possessions per game for a 93.5 percent team clearance win rate), Isaac Heeney (7.2/88.4 percent), Patrick Cripps (7/88.1 percent), and… Elijah Tsatas (7.5/86.7 percent)
Key to Melbourne’s drought-breaking win against Fremantle – aside from their total dominance at centre bounce – was their ability to generate forward pressure. The Demons laid 27 tackles inside their forward 50 to Fremantle’s four. That was Melbourne’s highest total since Round 20, 2021 (an auspicious season) and their biggest positive differential in said stat since 2012.
Several of the stats which came out of the Adelaide vs. GWS clash were more interesting than the actual game.
Courtesy of the inimitable Sir Swampthing: with an aggregate total of just 86 points, this was the lowest-scoring match in the AFL era where both sides were ranked in the top four for scoring.
It was the first time under Adam Kingsley that the Giants didn’t kick a goal from a back half chain – and they had 87 opportunities. The greasy, swirly conditions were clearly a major contributor to that. However, as I pointed out in last week's breakdown of Adelaide's defensive frailties, allowing opposition rebound isn't currently one of them. The Crows are strong in a number of key defensive transition indicators.
From Max Laughton: a score of 1.4 (10) was the Giants’ worst return to half-time – excluding the 2020 season, which everyone except Richmond fans would prefer to forget – since their inaugural season. It really was a strange old game on Saturday.
From Ethan Meldrum, a.k.a. the Brett Kirk meme enjoyer: on Thursday night, Brisbane became the first side since Gold Coast in late 2013 (again, excluding 2020) to have both fewer than 40 inside-50s and lay fewer than 30 tackles in a game. Yes, they had an off night. But the Pies are real.
‘Til next week!