2025 AFL Season Previews: Western Bulldogs
One normal year of Bevo. That is all I ask for.
Last but certainly not least for my season previews – Bevo’s Bulldogs.
2024 ladder position: 6th (14 wins, 9 losses)
2024 best-and-fairest: Marcus Bontempelli (I actually looked this up, why?)
Senior coach: Luke Beveridge
Story of the season
No side mixes brilliance and bemusement quite like the Bulldogs. They fluffed their lines in Round 1, going down by seven goals to a Melbourne side that was still pre-self-immolation. A tough defeat to Geelong in a Gather Round game that the Dogs probably had the better of seemed to encapsulate a difficult first half of the season. In the background, constant speculation about both Luke Beveridge’s performance as coach and Bailey Smith’s future didn’t help things. The Dogs improved after the bye, winning five out of six to rocket into top-four considerations, until an underwhelming (and inaccurate) performance to an Adelaide side with nothing but pride to play for dealt those chances a huge blow. Comfortable wins in their final two home-and-away games weren’t enough, as the Dogs finished sixth, just a single win from third. It’s futile to point at any individual defeat as the reason why they didn’t get the double chance, but I’m sure that the narrow losses to Geelong, Hawthorn (in Round 8), and Sydney will occupy some space in the minds of supporters. The Dogs were little match for a red-hot Hawthorn side in the Elimination Final, although subsequent reporting around the physical and mental state of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan perhaps offers slight mitigation. Marcus Bontempelli still didn’t get his Brownlow, Bailey Smith made his barely concealed desire to go to the Cats public, and the Dogs went to the draft.
Summary of game style
The Dogs’ style has matured since 2016, when they stormed the footy castle with a forward-handball style no one figured out how to stop. That season, they averaged 198.4 handballs per game and the second-lowest share of kicks. In 2024, the corresponding figures were 154.1 and 13th. But Luke Beveridge’s system is still built on familiar pillars: clearance strength and moving the ball to the outside of the contest by hand.
Statistically, the Dogs show up everywhere and nowhere. They’re about league-average for both the speed and elaborateness (number of disposals) per possession chain, maintain a fairly even balance of control and chaos with ball in hand, and have a balanced defensive profile of how they win the ball back. The powerful combination of Bontempelli, Liberatore and Treloar inevitably means they are a fearsome stoppage side, ranking second for total clearances and second for scores from stoppage differential. That translates, fittingly enough for Bulldogs, into territorial dominance – they had the most inside-50s and conceded the fewest. Playing most of the game in their forward half creates interesting trade-offs. The Dogs were 17th for offensive one-on-ones (because the opposition sent numbers to defensive 50), but the marking power of of the likes of Aaron Naughton, Sam Darcy, Rory Lobb and – yes – Marcus Bontempelli means the Dogs took more contested marks than any other side in 2024. And although the Dogs conceded the fewest inside-50s, playing so high up the ground meant the ones they did concede tended to hurt. Only two sides conceded higher-value shots. That vulnerability to counter-attacking styles was shown up against both Adelaide in Round 22 and Hawthorn in the elimination final.
Playing most of the game in their own front half is also a significant factor in why the Dogs fared poorly when it came to scoring from their back half and preventing the opposition from doing the same (13th for scores from back half differential). This is more a function of style than personnel, but, as sides focus more on mounting direct, efficient counter-attacks from their defensive half, the Dogs can occasionally look a touch behind the times.
List changes
In:
Cooper Hynes (2024 National Draft, Pick #20)
Lachie Jaques (2024 National Draft, Pick #29)
Josh Dolan (2024 National Draft, Pick #31)
Sam Davidson (2024 National Draft, Pick #51)
Luke Kennedy (2024 National Draft, Pick #62)
Matt Kennedy (trade – Carlton)
Out:
Bailey Smith (trade – Geelong)
Jack Macrae (trade – St Kilda)
Caleb Daniel (trade – North Melbourne)
Dominic Bedendo (delisted)
Charlie Clarke (delisted)
Kelsey Rypstra (delisted)
Alex Keath (retired)
Aiden O'Driscoll (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: six (T-10th)
Average age at Opening Round: 25.3 (3rd)
Average number of games played: 78.4 (5th)
The Dogs’ list managers agreed with the consensus that last year’s draft was a deep one. The last time they selected more players in a national draft was 2014. After an unsuccessful attempt to trade up for their first pick – apparently for crafty midfielder Murphy Reid – the Dogs had to make do with Cooper Hynes. The powerful mid-forward is an archetype the Dogs don’t really have (dare I say, Jake Stringer-ish). Lachie Jaques is a rebounding defender noted for his aerial ability, while Josh Dolan is a small forward with a neat kick. Sam Davidson, already one of the best stories in footy, was best afield in the pre-season game against Hawthorn in an outside midfielder/wing role (not entirely unlike the one played by a certain Bailey Smith). We obviously don’t know how good any of these players will become at AFL level. But Dogs supporters ought to be heartened by the quality of their recent drafting.
The defence is probably their weakest line – but it’s not bad. Rory Lobb’s transformation from forgotten man up forward to linchpin down back was a credit to him and also to Luke Beveridge. Next to him, Liam Jones is a steady presence. His absence – he’s unlikely to play much before Gather Round – will be keenly felt. James O'Donnell has emerged as a solid option, and although Buku Khamis doesn’t convince as a key position defender, his agility makes him a decent interceptor. As for the smalls, Lachie Bramble and Taylor Duryea are solid citizens who don’t get the heart racing, while Bailey Dale has been one of the league’s best rebounding defenders ever since coach Luke Beveridge threw him back there in a pre-season game in 2021. I’d expect Jedd Busslinger to feature more this season. With Jones out, the West Australian could play in Round 1.
The engine room is still where most of the magic happens. Marcus Bontempelli is the big boss. Tom Liberatore is still there, shovelling coal into the furnace, although one gets a slightly queasy feeling whenever he cops a knock to the head. Adam Treloar will have to wait a few weeks to follow up his career-best season as he recovers from a calf strain. I suspect the combination of Liberatore’s vulnerability, Treloar’s injury and Ed Richards’ successful switch from half-back to midfielder (what’s that, another inspired positional change by Bevo?) will spell the end for the dominant Bontempelli/Liberatore/Treloar triumvirate that’s attended the majority of centre bounces for the last two seasons. Dogs fans will want to see Ryley Sanders in the middle more, while Sam Davidson is surely pressing his case given the quality of his game against the Hawks in pre-season. Bailey Williams and Joel Freijah – more on him later – should start on the wings. New recruit Matt Kennedy will be useful depth, especially as he’s also a handy auxiliary forward.
Injuries and the uncertainty surrounding the personal circumstances of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (there’s more on him down below, as well) make the forward line a hard read. My uncertainty doesn’t extend to Sam Darcy, who appears destined to become one of the game’s best key forwards very soon. Nor does it extend to Aaron Naughton, despite what some unscrupulous pundits might say. Last season’s subtle shift in his role – he roamed further up the ground – was a good use of his prodigious aerobic capacity and contested marking. How Beveridge retools the forward line in the absence of Ugle-Hagan is a key question. The optimistic view is that aligning closer with the current fashion of two talls and four smalls works in the Dogs’ favour as it de-clogs the leading lanes inside forward-50 (Aaron Naughton averages 2.2 goals per game without Ugle-Hagan in the side). But it’s probably more likely that someone like Jordan Croft or perhaps even Buku Khamis fills in as the third tall. Cody Weightman, Riley Garcia, Rhylee West and Lachlan McNeil is a pretty neat set of small forwards, although Weightman’s absence (he’ll miss most of the first half of the season with a knee injury) will sting. Josh Dolan might debut sooner than expected. A fair few questions need to be answered.
Line rankings
Defence: Above Average
Midfield: Elite
Forwards: Above Average
Ruck: Above Average
The case for optimism
The Dogs are good. Here are some stats from 2024 that prove it:
First for scores from stoppage differential
First for inside-50s differential
First for forward-50 ground ball gets differential
Second for expected score differential
Second for shots differential
Second for scores from forward half differential
Third for clearance differential
Fourth for intercept mark differential
17th for expected score +/- differential
Now, I know that stats won’t convince either the pundits who think Luke Beveridge is wasting the best list in footy, or Dogs fans who are ambivalent about the current direction of the club. But I think it should help the undecided realise that this side, when it’s healthy, is one of the best in the AFL. Most models ended up converging on three sides being better than the rest in 2024 – Brisbane, Hawthorn, and the Western Bulldogs (in no particular order).
It’s hard to make the case that the Dogs’ list is stronger than on a pure personnel basis than 12 months ago. Matt Kennedy is a decent addition, but his on-field contributions won’t match those of Bailey Smith, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel combined. However, I can easily see several players already on the Dogs’ list improving by enough to offset those departures, and help hold things together until the injured players come back. The most obvious candidate for said growth is Sam Darcy. The young key forward has a ceiling so high only he can reach it. The prospect of another summer of strengthening his body and – how’s this for an optimistic silver lining – becoming the undisputed target in a slightly less crowded forward 50 might mean he begins realising his immense potential as soon as this season. Ryley Sanders has impressed in pre-season and appears poised to show why the Dogs traded up to take him with Pick #6 in the 2023 draft. Ed Richards has slotted seamlessly into the midfield. Rory Lobb’s move down back has fortified the defence. There’s lots of talent in the most important parts of the ground.
Although the Dogs have one of the oldest lists in the competition, I don’t think the cliff is coming for them just yet. Four important contributors are 32 or older – Tom Liberatore, Liam Jones, Rory Lobb, and Adam Treloar. Liberatore’s history of concussion does make him a watch. One more could end his career. Liam Jones, partly because of his, uh, temporary absence from the game, doesn’t have as many miles on the clock as most 34 year-olds. Rory Lobb has caught a second wind since being moved to defence, while Treloar is coming off a career-best season (although the propensity for soft-tissue injuries is a concern). As long as Bontempelli is still in his prime, I see this list – if it’s fit and firing – as one that can challenge.
The case for pessimism
Well, let’s go one-by-one. Starting with the injuries. The Dogs have been whacked hard with the variance stick this pre-season, and it’ll cost them games. Despite their draw only being rated middle of the road in terms of the difficulty, it’s fairly brutal until the bye. Marcus Bontempelli, Liam Jones, Adam Treloar, Cody Weightman and possibly Ed Richards and Rhylee West all appear set to miss key games early in the season against the Dogs’ direct rivals for top eight spots. In what’s predicted to be another even season, dropping a couple of games because you can’t get enough of your important guys on the field in important games, when there are already questions about the quality of your depth is… less than ideal.
Similar words could be used to describe the rapidly escalating and evolving Jamarra Ugle-Hagan situation. I don’t know what’s going on. I’m not going to speculate on what’s going on. What seems clear enough, however, even from a distance, is that he is not in a fit emotional state to help the Dogs win games of footy, and that his relationships with some figures at the club need mending. Given this, and his disrupted pre-season, it’ll probably be some time before we see the #1 draft pick from 2020 positively impacting games in red, white and blue.
Ugle-Hagan’s personal circumstances and the bad injury luck have cast a shadow over the Dogs’ season before any real footy has been played. And, in truth, the whole joint was already in a bit of a funk. The knowledge that, despite being a top-three team statistically last season, they again fell short of gaining the double chance, would be gnawing away at everyone down at the Kennel. For what it’s worth, I belong to the school of thought which believes that, rather than squandering a brilliant list, Beveridge has actually done a very good job as coach. Being constantly judged by the standards of a shock flag in 2016 has, paradoxically, probably done his reputation some harm. But there’s no doubt that his political capital has diminished. If this season goes wrong (I think missing the eight entirely would qualify), then it might be time to consider an amicable parting of ways and introduce some new tactical ideas.
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Breakout player
Sam Darcy is a boring answer. Joel Freijah is a more interesting one. Not enough people are talking about what an excellent debut season he had on the wing and across half-back. Player ratings aren’t a perfect measure, but Freijah’s 8.95 put him between Bayley Fritsch and Jack Graham (and above the likes of Kai Lohmann, Mitch McGovern, and Harry Perryman). The 45th player picked from the 2023 draft is already shaping up to be excellent value, and if he goes to the next level, more people will take notice.
Most important player
Marcus Bontempelli. There’s nothing to say that’s not been said already. He’s the best player in football – a unicorn who breaks lines, wins the contested ball, kicks goals, and tackles hard. It looks likely that he will miss at least a couple of important early-season games against Collingwood, Carlton, Fremantle and Brisbane. Ouch.
Biggest question to answer
Can the centre hold until the injured stars return? The Dogs will have to find a way to cope without most of Bontempelli, Weightman, Jones, Treloar until Gather Round. If the rest of the Dogs’ prime movers (Darcy, Naughton, Dale, Liberatore, Richards, Lobb) can get them there with a 3-2 record – even 2-3 might suffice – then fans should be reasonably confident that things will improve from there.
What success looks like
If I’d written this a month and a half ago, I’d probably have written that, just like 2024, the bar was winning a final. However, the injuries the Dogs have suffered, together with the progressively deteriorating Ugle-Hagan situation, has moved the bar down. But I think making the finals is still a fair pass mark.
In a nutshell
The Bulldogs have never finished in the top four under Luke Beveridge. A rotten run of injuries in pre-season means that probably won’t change. But they still have some of the brightest stars in the sport. If they can muddle through until Bontempelli and co. return, they should be right.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Bulldogs? Share your thoughts in the comments.