2025 AFL Season Previews: West Coast

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single don't argue.

Progressing to Perth for the penultimate preview.

---

2024 ladder position: 16th (5 wins, 18 losses)

2024 best-and-fairest: Jeremy McGovern

Senior coach: Andrew McQualter

Story of the season

The end of one road and the beginning of another. Adam Simpson, 2018 Premiership coach, was relieved of his duties after a limp defeat to Melbourne at the MCG and just eight wins in three years. It was the right decision. But it was sad all the same. Simpson gave a lot of himself, and a lot of his life, to the Eagles. Most supporters, despite the ignominy of the last few seasons, will remember him fondly. Jarrad Schofield was handed the reins on an interim basis and, though he did well to scratch out wins against Gold Coast and North Melbourne, one suspects he probably wasn’t seriously considered for the full-time role. It actually took until two days after the Grand Final for the club to unveil Andrew McQualter, former Richmond assistant and caretaker, as the Eagles’ seventh permanent senior coach. The Richmondification of West Coast was accelerated when, during the trade period, Liam Baker and Jack Graham joined the club. It wasn’t a good season, exactly. But it was better than the slasher movies that were 2022 and 2023 – and heralds the dawn of a new era out west.

Summary of game style

I’m going to temporarily hand over the pen to the Eagles’ 21 year-old forward/ruck, Jack Williams, who spoke about this very subject to radio station 6PR in late January: “We want to become a territory team,” Williams said. “We want to turn the ball over fast and really own forward-half footy. We want to be a high-pressure team that can create turnovers.” A good, concise summary.

With that in mind, let’s look at the stats for West Coast’s pre-season game against North Melbourne last Saturday. With the significant caveat that this was pre-season, so both sides were taking liberties with selections, rotations and even tactics they probably won’t be when the real stuff, it’s still rather instructive:

Clearly some of these numbers are unsustainable. West Coast will be in for a bad time against better sides if they can only generate 36 inside-50 entries per game (North averaged the fewest of any side last season – 45.3). But the intent is clear. Under McQualter, the Eagles will force turnovers and then use foot speed and ultra-direct ball movement to get the ball forward before opposition defensive zones are set and create one-on-ones inside attacking 50. Who cares about unnecessary possessions?

The ground ball gets to marks ratio is a (very) rough and ready proxy for control. The higher the number, the more chaos. In 2021, the last season before things started going very wrong under Adam Simpsons, the corresponding ratio was 0.71. The comparison between that number and the one West Coast mustered in their hitout against North is like chalk and cheese. I believe (this isn’t a stat I can actually verify) that the Eagles didn’t kick the ball backwards once in the first half on Saturday. In fact, I’m not sure they did it once for the whole game. They averaged about nine backwards kicks per game last season. It won’t always work. In fact, if you’re measuring it purely by win-loss record, it’ll fail most of the time. But it’ll almost certainly be fun.

List changes

In: 

• Bo Allan (2024 National Draft, Pick #16)

• Jobe Shanahan (2024 National Draft, Pick #30)

• Tom Gross (2024 National Draft, Pick #46)

• Luca Greggo (2024 National Draft, Pick #48)

• Hamish Davis (2024 National Draft, Pick #65)

• Malakai Champion (Category B rookie)

• Liam Baker (trade – Richmond)

• Matt Owies (trade – Carlton)

• Jack Graham (free agent – Richmond)

• Sandy Brock (Supplemental Selection Period)

Out:

• Jack Darling (trade – North Melbourne)

• Tom Barrass (trade – Hawthorn)

• Coby Burgiel (delisted)

• Jai Culley (delisted)

• Jordyn Baker (delisted)

• Luke Edwards (delisted)

• Jamaine Jones (delisted)

• Josh Rotham (delisted)

• Zane Trew (delisted)

• Alex Witherden (delisted)

• Andrew Gaff (retired)

List profile

Number of top-10 draft picks: two (18th)

Average age at Opening Round: 23.9 (16th)

Average number of games played: 61 (17th)

When news of the trade which sent Liam Baker to the Eagles in exchange for, among other things, Pick 3 going to Carlton reached the Perth area, the supporter backlash would have made a repentant Catholic sinner blush. Most Eagles fans did not regard their natural first as a reasonable price to pay for the Richmond utility – especially given they already had so few top-10 picks on their list. The outpourings of sympathy I saw from other supporters on social media suggested that the Eagles got the rough end of the pineapple. But I never thought the deal was as bad as the reaction implied, especially when evaluated in light of the Eagles’ draft haul. Obviously, no one should believe what head recruiters say on draft night. Somehow, every single player is exactly the one they wanted. But West Coast brought in mature, established talent in the forms of Baker, Jack Graham and Matt Owies while still filling their boots in the draft, including a couple of highly-rated WA prospects. Clearly we won’t know who “won” the trade for years. But spreading picks over the breadth of a deep draft, while bringing in guys who will improve the team in the short term while also providing leadership and physical protection to the younger guys as they develop seems like a prudent bet to me.

One can also see the logic of granting Tom Barrass his wish to be traded to Hawthorn. He might help the Hawks win a flag. But he wasn’t going to move the needle at West Coast in a way that mattered. Hawthorn’s first- and second-round picks will make more of a difference to the Eagles’ rebuild (even if I think they ought to have taken the Carlton picks instead). There’s no doubt, however, that Barrass’ departure will hurt the Eagles in the short-term. Their key defensive stocks, Jeremy McGovern aside, are fairly threadbare. Harry Edwards has shown some decent signs and, assuming his body allows him to get a good run at it, he will begin the season as the first-choice full back. Brady Hough and Tom Cole are decent lockdown options. I can see the logic of shifting Reuben Ginbey to half-back, where his speed and size will allow him to break some lines, even if I think the move sends a bearish signal about his future in the midfield. Ryan Maric is also being retooled as a defender, probably the right option given his disposal and the Eagles’ glut of marking forwards. The very early signs suggest that McQualter may throw Liam Baker around the ground based on the game state. He played predominantly back in the first half against North, and mostly forward in the second. Although I like McQualter’s willingness to experiment in this part of the ground, I suspect that the combination of largely untried personnel with an aggressive game plan will see the Eagles concede some high scores this season.

The Eagles midfield has lots of talent, but just as many question marks regarding fitness and fit. Elliot Yeo is still one of the best hard ball midfielders going around, but the significant questions over his durability (just 57 games in the last five years, and he’s currently recovering from a syndesmosis injury) should probably start some conversations about how the midfield moves past him. Elijah Hewett has shown Eagles fans enough to get excited, but a foot injury meant he didn’t play a single game in 2024, depriving him of a crucial development year. Although he’s probably not had the ideal pre-season, the biggest question surrounding Harley Reid isn’t about his form, but what he will make of the Eagles’ trajectory this season. Jack Graham, one of the Richmond recruits, might not see much centre bounce action but his pressure and toughness will make him both a good enabler of McQualter’s frantic style and a capable bodyguard for younger guys. There are some unresolved tactical questions, too. Without Yeo (and even with him), the Eagles midfield has lacked defensive accountability and leaked high-value clearances. No side conceded more from stoppages in 2024.

The forward line is the Eagles’ area of strength. Jake Waterman’s journey from debilitating ulcerative colitis to All-Australian has been remarkable. He and Oscar Allen have the makings of a formidable duo, although, given the relative richness of the Eagles’ tall forward stocks and the paucity of its key defensive depth, I would consider shifting the co-captain down back (at least occasionally). Jack Williams and Archer Reid are developing nicely, while Jobe Shanahan will have the luxury of developing in the WAFL and might see some senior action at the back end of the season. Matt Owies will complement a decent collection of smalls and mediums. On the evidence of pre-season, Liam Ryan and Noah Long seem to have returned to full fitness, while Tyler Brockman and Tyrell Dewar (the latter of whom had an immediate impact when introduced against North) appear poised to contribute this season. There’s still a fair bit of surgery required on the Eagles’ list. But the forward line is the least of their concerns.

Line rankings

Defence: Below Average

Midfield: Average

Forward: Above Average

Ruck: Below Average

The case for optimism

First and foremost: the Eagles are reverting back to the old club song. That’s honestly a big bull signal for the rebuild. The Birds of Tokyo may have their merits – I’m not a fan, sorry to say – but they don’t extend to club songs.

Onto slightly more serious matters: I think the trauma of the last three seasons has slightly obscured that the Eagles have a fair bit of talent on their list. McGovern, Yeo, Kelly, Reid, Baker, Waterman, and Allen are all good-to-great players. And although there might be question marks about the ability of some of those players to stay fit, there surely aren’t many about their quality. The Eagles bottomed out because of a horrific run with injuries and because Adam Simpson couldn’t find any more ways to motivate and organise an exhausted and depleted list. And there is significant scope to add more quality to the list over the next two to three years. The Barrass trade has left the Eagles with one of the best draft hands of any club, in a year apparently rich with Western Australian talent. They would surely much prefer Harley Reid to stay an Eagle forever, but the knowledge that if he does decamp, the club would receive a king’s ransom in return, must surely be some consolation. And the Eagles appear to be the current frontrunners for Chad Warner, even if I think that waiting two more years so the list is more mature and he can be obtained as a free agent is the way to go.

The appointment of a new coach with new ideas is also cause for optimism in and of itself. Adam Simpson was a very good coach, but by the end of his tenure, even he might have agreed it was best for both parties to shake hands and move on. Andrew McQualter comes in with no accumulated mental baggage, no memory of how horrible the last few seasons have been, and a maximum amount of political capital. His job is to build the club’s next Premiership side. The fans’ job is simply to enjoy the ride.

The case for pessimism

Despite what I’m sure will be some encouraging signs of progress, West Coast will still lose most of their games this season. When you consider they’ve won just a dozen of their last 80 games, that’s a hard sell to a supporter base that’s already suffered through the most fallow period in the club’s history. The pain will probably be slightly alleviated. But there’ll still be pain.

The Eagles were the best of the bottom three sides and ought to improve. The choice to bring in Baker, Graham and Owies certainly suggests that’s the expectation from upstairs. But they were miles behind the 15th-best side in the competition last season. And although it’s possible that injuries will cause the Saints to regress, the other sides that finished from ninth to 15th last season should all improve – very possibly by more than the Eagles will. Showing progress but not actually progressing up the ladder, especially given the last few seasons, will be a frustrating feeling for supporters (even if it will, in all likelihood, result in a top-three draft pick).

More broadly, I still see significant gaps in the list and some questions about the progress of young players. The defence, one suspects, will concede plenty, especially if the Eagles struggle to generate the turnovers that form the cornerstone of McQualter’s game plan. Moving Reuben Ginbey down back doesn’t inspire confidence about his future as a midfielder. Elijah Hewett is talented but missed every game in what should have been an important development year. And the Eagles, for the young talent they do possess, especially in Harley Reid and a clutch of young forwards, are still getting lots of output from senior players. Elliot Yeo, Jeremy McGovern and Tim Kelly – their three prime movers according to player ratings – all make the Eagles better, and they’re all now on the wrong side of 30. It’s reasonable to believe that Tim Kelly hasn’t quite lived up to the promise since moving to the club. But it's indisputable that, together with Yeo, he’s been the club’s main midfielder for the last four years. Perhaps the replacements for those two players are already on the Eagles’ list. I am sceptical the next Jeremy McGovern is.

A word on the Harley Reid circus. On one hand, it’s been driven by a football media that’s driven by clicks and the prospect of one of the game’s most exciting players plying his trade in Victoria. And, if he does depart the club when his first contract expires, he will fetch an enormous swag of picks. But it still feels like a distraction that the club can ultimately do without.

---

Enjoying this preview and think an Eagles-supporting friend might too? Share it with them!

---

Breakout player

Has Harley Reid broken out? If he hasn’t, then he’s probably the most obvious candidate among any player in the AFL. But that feels like playing on easy mode. A more left-field choice is Tyrell Dewar. The diminutive half-forward, who’s been playing on a wing this pre-season, has looked at ease in senior footy since more or less his debut. Andrew McQualter could play it safe by selecting Matt Owies and Jamie Cripps as small forwards. Or he could give the keys to guys like Dewar. Doing the latter would yield greater long-term dividends.

Most important player

I think it’s still Jeremy McGovern – even more so now that he won’t have his mate Tom Barrass next to him. The old warhorse collected some more bruises, his first best-and-fairest award (!) and yet another All-Australian jacket in a season that showed he’s still one of the top intercept defenders in footy. West Coast’s defensive structure is alarmingly dependent on him. Harley Reid, both for his significance to the rebuild, and the attention on his future, is also a decent candidate.

Biggest question to answer

Clearly, the highest-order questions which need to be affirmatively answered for this whole thing to work are: how effectively can Andrew McQualter implement his system; and how well-suited is the Eagles’ list to that system? But more narrowly, I think it’s something like: how can McQualter cobble together a semi-reliable defensive unit with Jeremy McGovern, Harry Edwards, Brady Hough and some repurposed midfielders? Not every side will covertly implant a McGovern-seeking chip in the ball the way North Melbourne apparently did last weekend.

What success looks like

Make no mistake: the Eagles are still fairly deep in the mire. I think we’re a couple of years away from seeing lift-off. So simply looking at wins vs. losses is to miss the forest for the trees. I’m much more interested to see how McQualter can communicate his ideas to a group of players that, from the outside, appear well-suited to playing his brand of footy.

In a nutshell

West Coast have brought in experienced players to accelerate their rebuild and provide mentorship and protection for their young midfielders. I would be surprised to see them finish outside the bottom four, but much less surprised to see real signs of progress under a new coach and new game plan.

---

Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against West Coast? Share your thoughts in the comments.

---