2025 AFL Season Previews: Port Adelaide
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. Sort of.
Preview number 13 takes me back to the greatest state in the land.
2024 ladder position: 2nd (17 wins, 7 losses – eliminated at Preliminary Final stage)
2024 best-and-fairest: Zak Butters
Senior coach: Ken Hinkley (/Josh Carr)
Story of the season
2024 felt like deja vu all over again for Port fans. The same powerful midfield. The same best-and-fairest winner. The same incredible record in close games. The same questions about the coach and the game plan. And, despite an absolutely staggering 112-point annihilation of the team that would eventually beat them in a prelim, and a heart-stopping semi final win against the Hollywood Hawks, the same vague sense of futility – the knowledge that the season was probably never going to achieve the success that everyone involved with Port Adelaide so desperately wants. But although, at first glance, it looked like all of Alberton was doomed to relive February 2nd yet again, under the surface, big tectonic plates were shifting. Port lost Dan Houston. They went to the draft. And then, in mid-February, came the announcement that coach Ken Hinkley would, over the course of season 2025, hand over the reins to protege Josh Carr.
Summary of game style
Part of the reason many Port fans feel like Phil Connors is that there’s been relatively little evolution in how the side have played for several seasons. For years, you could predict the key features of how Port played under Ken Hinkley: contested possessions (usually downstream of clearance wins), lots of kicks, rapid ball movement designed to move the ball into enemy territory and catch opposition defences unprepared. An aggressive forward press meant to create repeat inside-50s. A game played mostly in their opponents’ defensive half. Minimalist. Old-school. But also very predictable. Opposition sides wised up: they learnt to anticipate how Port’s players would carry the ball out of stoppages, where they would direct their kicks, and – perhaps most critically – they understood that Port’s forward-heavy style was susceptible to rapid counterattacks.
So after the disappointment of a straight-sets exit in 2023, Hinkley (and possibly Josh Carr) went back to the drawing board in an attempt to retool Port’s game plan and make it less vulnerable to opposition low defensive blocks. Statistically, here are the results:
What do those numbers show? Firstly, they demonstrate a greater willingness to be patient. Port were still the second-fastest side at moving the ball upfield (only Geelong were faster), but it was still a sizeable shift from 2023, when they were out in front on their own by a mile. And secondly, they show a greater focus on control. Speed and chaos are linked. But Port wanted to find a more sustainable balance in 2024. They did it by taking 12 more marks per game, which in turn was partly responsible for seven fewer ground ball gets per game. That willingness to take an extra moment, to try and go around an opposition defensive zone rather than bombing it on the head of a battered and ageing Charlie Dixon, was why Port went from forcing the most offensive one-on-ones to only the fifth-most. Did it work? Well, Port were marginally harder to score against in 2024. But they also scored less themselves – and had many of the same flaws.
List changes
In:
Joe Berry (2024 National Draft, pick #15)
Jack Whitlock (2024 National Draft, pick #33)
Christian Moraes (2024 National Draft, pick #38)
Tom Cochrane (Rookie Draft)
Benny Barrett (Category B Rookie)
Jacob Moss (Category B Rookie)
Joe Richard (trade – Collingwood)
Jack Lukosius (trade – Gold Coast)
Rory Atkins (trade – Gold Coast)
Josh Lai (Supplementary Selection Period)
Out:
Dan Houston (trade – Collingwood)
Tom Clurey (delisted)
Francis Evans (delisted)
Kyle Marshall (delisted)
Tom McCallum (delisted)
Quinton Narkle (delisted)
Tom Scully (delisted)
Charlie Dixon (retired)
Trent McKenzie (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: five (T-13th)
Average age at Opening Round: 24.4 (12th)
Average number of games played: 71.1 (10th)
I’ve interpreted the departure of Dan Houston in two ways. The first and most obvious thing to say is that he’s the best kick in footy and was fundamental to Port’s quick, direct ball movement scheme. The second thing to say is that one of the closest possible substitutes for Houston, both in terms of style and quality, is already on Port’s list. His name is Kane Farrell. He’s not Houston’s equal, but he’s also not that far off:
Replacing Houston’s role (assuming Hinkley intends to keep it) with Farrell will create a flow-on issue – he already played 22 games in 2024 – but one that feels less insurmountable. Logan Evans, Jase Burgoyne, the half-forgotten Josh Sinn or even surprise steak knives Rory Atkins could all probably play decent minutes as the auxiliary half-back. It feels like Port have the players to adequately replace Houston already on the list. In fact, they have a surfeit of small and medium defenders. It’s the key defensive stocks which are a worry, and constitute Port’s single biggest personnel-related flaw. Aliir Aliir is a great player but much more comfortable when able to zone off his opponent and intercept. Esava Ratugolea has all the athletic traits you could desire, but his game sense and connection with his teammates leave much to be desired. He looked more useful when swung up forward two-thirds of the way through last season. Brandon Zerk-Thatcher is adequate but outmuscled by the game’s biggest key forwards. The semi-competitive trial game against Adelaide at Mt Barker was enough to demonstrate, quite decisively, that good talls will continue to give Port lots of trouble. Jeremy Finlayson appears to be being trialled as a defender and secondary ruck. The simple fact is that, prior to the drafting of Jack Whitlock (who was regarded as equally adept both up forward and down back, but because of Port’s needs will probably train as a defender) last year, Port hadn’t drafted a tall defender since Miles Bergman in 2019. And although he’s excellent, he’s not a key position player. The most obvious explanation for why Port lack quality in key position posts, relative to other flag contenders, is also the correct one: they rarely draft them. The word is that Xavier Walsh is developing well. Frankly, he needs to.
The midfield is outstanding. You know you’re cooking when a Brownlow medallist is probably the worst of your regular midfield crew, and when your captain and two-time All-Australian is the worst of your prime trio. Jason Horne-Francis is destined for superstardom in the near future, while Zak Butters is already there. However. However. There are real and exploitable issues when it comes to the balance, particularly at stoppages. Horne-Francis, Butters and Rozee all do their best work forward of centre. To employ some FIFA video game parlance, they’re all CAMs. Too much of the defensive burden falls on Willem Drew. Unless he’s considered more use down back, the impressive Jase Burgoyne should lock down a wing and emerge as an important cog in Port’s ball movement scheme.
The forward line has undergone significant change. Charlie Dixon was, uh, past his best in 2024, but – to the chagrin of many Port fans – remained an important reference point. Hinkley may simply opt to replace him with Ratugolea. Elsewhere, Jack Lukosius should fit in well as a roaming third tall who leads high up the field and links the midfield and attack. He and Mitch Georgiades (Port’s best forward) might be similar sizes, but they’re very different players. Georgiades is comfortable as the deepest forward, splitting packs or leading to the pockets. By trading in Joe Richards and drafting Joe Berry, Port have clearly signalled their intent to improve their crop of small forwards (and tweak their ball movement). Between them, Willie Rioli, and Sam Powell-Pepper, Port suddenly have a very decent-looking collection that more closely resembles the best small/medium forward groups in the competition. Based on the first pre-season game against Adelaide, expect Berry to drift up to the wings and deliver inside 50.
Jordon Sweet has comprehensively won the battle to be Port’s primary ruckman. Dixon’s retirement deprived Port of a capable relieving ruck, especially at forward stoppages. I suspect Port will prefer to have Finlayson as a chop-out ruck, even if it costs them clearances, than weigh themselves down around the ground by selecting Ivan Soldo – even if the Victorian is himself a serviceable makeshift forward.
Line rankings
Defence: Average
Midfield: Elite
Forward: Above Average
Ruck: Average
The case for optimism
Port have more-or-less nailed the toughest part of any list build – the midfield. It’s not absolutely perfect. We’ve seen opposition teams exploit the fact that Horne-Francis, Rozee and Butters all do their best work forward of the ball. But the basic fact of their immense quality means it’s almost impossible to see Port winning fewer than 10 games. An excellent midfield trio (quartet, I should say: not enough people talk about Willem Drew) greatly simplifies the rest of the list management task – surround them with good players.
And Port are making some decent progress in that realm. The big three are the stars of the show. But around and beneath them, a good supporting cast – the bread and butter of a flag tilt – is emerging. Miles Bergman is an excellent, mobile, intercepting third tall defender. Getting him to commit to a new deal would be the best parting gift Hinkley could leave the club. Mitch Georgiades is one of the best pseudo-tall forwards in the game. Lukosius hasn’t shown the form that his talent warrants, but the talent is vast. Jase Burgoyne is developing very well (just imagine when he grows some muscle) and Joes Richards and Berry appear poised to make immediate impacts. It goes to a broader point: most of Port’s on-field contributions are being made by younger players. This chart (link), created by analyst and writer Sean Lawson, breaks down the age distribution of all clubs’ top 25 players from last season (very small caveat: the ages appear to be a bit out for all players, but the point remains the same). I’d say there are only two clubs – Hawthorn and Fremantle – that could be considered Premiership contenders on the same level as Port that have younger top-25s. The kids have the keys at Alberton. Regardless of what one thinks about the current head coach, that’s a bullish sign for the future.
There’s been a fair bit of talk this pre-season that Port will adopt a new ball movement scheme that makes better use of capable forward-half kicks (principally Jack Lukosius, but also Joe Berry) and adjusts for the fact that their forward line will be undersized and probably underpowered when it comes to contested marking. It’s probably overdue. And there’s no reason it shouldn’t work. Dan Houston was the best kick in the AFL, but Kane Farrell is pretty good, too. Zak Butters is one of the best inside-50 kicks in the game, and there’s no reason Jack Lukosius can’t be as well. There’ll be some growing pains. But all the raw materials are there. Sure, the head coach is a stubborn old goat. But he won’t be the coach for much longer.
The case for pessimism
Quite a few – and, although I’m not convinced any will prove fatal on their own, the accumulation of them might. I’ve already spoken about the first few: the loss of Houston, the paucity of the key defensive stocks, and the lack of defensive accountability in the midfield. I have a sacreligious opinion regarding the member of Port’s big three midfield trio that’s most often linked with a move away from the club, but I’ll save that to myself. That’s three.
The next two are statistical. Port are scheduled to have a bloody tough fixture. The AFL website ranks it as the second-toughest. That’s a bit abstract, so I’ll make it more practical: Port will play Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong, Fremantle and Carlton twice. Yikes. I think the impact of the fixture can often be overstated, but what makes it salient for Port is that a) they ended up having the equal-easiest fixture last year; and b) they finished second because of an outrageous 6-1 record in home & away games decided by 12 points or fewer. I wrote in the corresponding section of last year’s preview, reflecting on Port’s 6-2 record in close games in 2023, that you can’t rely on that kind of luck continuing indefinitely. Perhaps I’m wrong, and winning close games actually is a science. But I don’t think so. Had Port won three fewer close games, they might have missed the eight entirely.
The next potential reason for pessimism is the mirror of something I cited in the optimism section: Port’s rejigged ball movement scheme. Yes, it’s the right idea. But that doesn’t mean it’ll work. And it doesn’t mean it’ll work right away. Given how thin Port’s margin was last season (and the season before), if it doesn’t click quickly, then they could find themselves adrift by the bye.
A brief word on the announcement that Ken Hinkley will hand over the coaching reins to Josh Carr after a 12-month handover period. I don’t know what to make of it. To be honest, I’m unconvinced by people citing the examples of Alastair Clarkson handing over to Sam Mitchell, or Mick Malthouse handing over to Nathan Buckley. Sure, there might have been personal rancour attached. But it’s just too small a sample size to confidently conclude that there’s anything inherently wrong with the idea. It struck me as a subject that traditional footy media loves discussing because it’s vaguely dramatic – not because it’ll make a meaningful difference on the field.
Late edit: Zak Butters will miss the first few games of the season. Needless to say, that’s bad!
Enjoying this preview and think a Port-supporting friend might too? Share it with them!
Breakout player
I’ve been hearing good things about key defender Xavier Walsh, but because he’s not actually played a senior game yet, he’s disqualified from consideration. I’m sure he’ll be devastated. Jase Burgoyne already came of age in the semi final against Hawthorn. So that leaves Logan Evans as the prime candidate. The 12th pick in last year’s Mid-Season Draft, the young South Australian has looked immediately at ease in the AFL. He appears poised to become a mainstay at half-back and, as his lanky frame fills out, perhaps across the wing as well. I suspect Joe Richards will also prove an astute recruit.
Most important player
Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis will do what they do (expect the latter to be a consensus top-10 player in the AFL by season’s end). Port fans will hope that Connor Rozee can bounce back from a slightly disappointing first year as captain, and that the defence holds up. But I wonder if Mitch Georgiades isn’t the key to making it all hang together. He looked better than ever after his return from a ruptured ACL. If Port are to go deep, one suspects he’ll need to do something he hasn’t yet done: kick 50+ goals.
Biggest question to answer
Can Port implement a game style that’s harder for opposition teams to counter and easier to execute in the biggest games? They have lots of new players and, soon, they’ll have a new man in charge. It’s time for some new ideas.
What success looks like
Would being outplayed in yet another prelim, and having the same flaws exposed, count as success? I’m not sure Port fans would agree. Instead, I think the objective is to find a more sustainable balance between attack and defence, integrate a new ball movement scheme, and get good contributions from a promising-looking cohort of young players – even if the cost is a slight slide down the ladder.
In a nutshell
Port have a brilliant (albeit slightly unbalanced) midfield, suspect key defensive stocks, and a new-look forward line. Despite solid reasons for long-term optimism, the combination of some tactical changes, an improbably good record in close games, and a tough draw may spell trouble for Ken Hinkley in his final season.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against Port? Share your thoughts in the comments.