2025 AFL Season Previews: North Melbourne
The abyss gazes also into you.
Taking the train to Arden Street for preview number 12.
2024 ladder position: 17th (3 wins, 20 losses)
2024 best-and-fairest: Luke Davies-Uniacke
Senior coach: Alastair Clarkson
Story of the season
Three months of misery, followed by some respite, topped off with a concentrated dollop of misery to round out the season. North didn’t get within four goals of a team for the first 11 rounds, sparking concerns around the water cooler that we could be witnessing the first winless season for 60 years. An oasis-in-the-desert win against West Coast was the beginning of a significantly improved two months which saw the Roos win three games (it should have been five) out of 10. The shocking late collapse in the return meeting against the Eagles, where North were winning by 13 points after the 30-minute mark of the final quarter, rather knocked the stuffing out of a young group. North couldn’t put up a fight in either of their final two games.
One suspects that the alarming deterioration in the last two rounds and – slightly more cynically – increasing scrutiny on the coaches and list management team played some part in the decision to trade in Luke Parker, Jack Darling and Caleb Daniel. North’s coaching staff will hope the experienced trio generate some short-term wins, improve young players, persuade those who might be considering their futures, and lift the spirits of a supporter base that desperately needs to believe that there is light at the end of this dark tunnel.
Summary of game style
A caveat that I should probably append to all game style sections for bottom-four teams: it’s tough to articulate your own style when you’re constantly trying to react to what the opposition is doing. North weren’t meaningful protagonists in many of their games. So, in order to understand how they tried to play when they were on roughly equal terms as their opponent, I decided to crunch the numbers (link) from the seven games North either won or came within 20 points of their opponents (I excluded the first game against the Western Bulldogs, where they were dominated and only came vaguely close because of the Dogs’ forward inefficiency). I’d caution against over-interpreting these numbers. It’s not a big sample and, by definition, the teams North beat or almost beat were weaker than most others in the competition. But I still think we can discern a couple of trends.
In those seven games, North had an average of more than six clearances, 28 marks, and 55 disposals more than their opponents. They also had 15 more kicks than their season average and restricted their opponents to 30 fewer kicks than normal. Translated, that means North prospered in games where they had the better of the contested game and could leverage that to gain ascendancy on the outside, seeking to control the tempo of the game with kicks and uncontested marks. That’s a reasonably conventional strategy for young and weak sides, who are often nervous about losing the ball in high-value parts of the field and will frequently “defend with possession”.
The early word from Arden Street is that North will look to employ a slightly more aggressive style this season that makes greater use of overlap handballs to gain territory, and a more conventional spacing set-up in the forward line. Northball? Perhaps not quite. You can see the logic: North’s best players all have attacking as their first instinct. But there are clearly risks involved. If Collingwood and GWS – sides with significantly better defensive set-ups, both at stoppages and general play – struggle to maintain a balance that works, one imagines North might too. Seeing how many layers coach Alastair Clarkson adds, and how quickly, will be one of the most interesting questions regarding North in 2025.
List changes
In:
Finn O’Sullivan (2024 National Draft, pick #2)
Matt Whitlock (2024 National Draft, pick #27)
Luke Urquhart (2024 National Draft, pick #57)
River Stevens (2024 National Draft pick #67 – father/son)
Caleb Daniel (trade – Western Bulldogs)
Jack Darling (trade – West Coast)
Jacob Konstanty (trade – Sydney)
Luke Parker (trade – Sydney)
Out:
Blake Drury (delisted)
Hamish Free (delisted)
Charlie Lazzaro (delisted)
Bigoa Nyuon (delisted)
Tyler Sellers (delisted)
Curtis Taylor (delisted)
Liam Shiels (retired)
Jaidyn Stephenson (retired)
Hugh Greenwood (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: 10 (T-1st)
Average age at Opening Round: 23.8 (18th)
Average number of games played: 61.4 (16th)
North’s decision to bring in Darling, Parker and Daniel is a perfect illustration of the difference in perspective among different genres of footy watchers. For the people who assign a high value to intangibles like leadership, experience, training standards and professionalism, it’s a great move. In fact, they’d see it as something of a win-win: North spent only a moderate amount of capital in exchange for accelerating the development of a talented but callow group, and morale-boosting wins in the short term. People who look purely at the numbers, and either disregard or ignore intangibles, are more sceptical, and see the likelihood of the trio making substantial on-field contributions as minimal. I’m somewhere in the middle. Based on his form and physical condition of the last two seasons, I would be surprised if Darling adds much. I understand that, from the perspective of North fans, he’s an upgrade on the player he’s replacing (be it Toby Pink or Brynn Teakle), and someone who’ll help to improve the structure of the forward line. Perhaps – but I struggle to see that translating to wins. I’m more open-minded about Parker and Daniel. The former’s days as a first-rotation centre bounce midfielder are probably over, but he can definitely still contribute as a marking half-forward. Caleb Daniel will become the designated playmaker from half-back and greatly assist in helping North become more assertive in moving the ball from the back half. While his disposal remains excellent, the problem is that he’s exploitable defensively, and without any other established rebounding half-backs in the side, he might be a single point of failure.
Elsewhere, Finn O’Sullivan wasn’t a surprise at Pick #2 and the early word is he’ll play early. He played on a wing in the pre-season game against Melbourne. The same correspondents are also impressed by Luke Urquhart, whose size and defensive prowess could see him move up the midfield depth chart sooner than expected. The draft move which generated the most controversy was trading North’s 2025 first round pick for Richmond’s Pick #27 and future second-rounder, which was used to secure young tall Matt Whitlock. The move effectively sent three signals: that North valued Whitlock, that they recognise that talls take longer to develop, and also that they are betting on themselves to advance up the ladder, diminishing the value of the pick they gave up for him. It’s obviously far too early to make any kind of judgment on Whitlock. However, if North’s list management and coaching staff are banking on moving up far enough up the ladder in 2025 to sweeten the deal, I fear they might be disappointed.
Assistant coach Leigh Adams, speaking after the hitout against Melbourne, effectively affirmed that the plan is to start the season with three key backs – Griffin Logue, Aiden Corr and Charlie Comben. My read is that they want to harness Comben’s outstanding intercepting without exposing him to too many one-on-one contests (Comben had the worst one-on-one loss percentage for any key defender who played more than 10 games – he’s good, but still very raw). Luke McDonald and the tenacious Jackson Archer will line up in the pockets, and Daniel will assume most of the burden for moving the ball forward from the back half.
The talent in the midfield group is clear, but the distribution of roles is not. Reigning best-and-fairest Luke Davies-Uniacke attends virtually every centre bounce he can. Jy Simpkin, best afield for the Indigenous All-Stars against Fremantle, appears to have fully shaken off the nasty concussion that dogged much of his 2024 season. Harry Sheezel attended more centre bounces in the back half of the year, but I suspect that, at least at the start of this season, he’ll often begin forward of the ball before drifting back to attend secondary stoppages. Based on the early evidence, Colby McKercher will also spend more time forward of the ball. Clarkson will need to balance the competing demands of having his most skilled player close to the goals or closer to the ball. Tom Powell, Will Phillips and George Wardlaw – when he returns from his latest hamstring injury – will all feature and add defensive accountability. North’s problems aren’t so much in winning clearances or preventing opposition clearances (they were about league-average for clearance differential), it’s what happens post-clearance and, in particular, on defensive transition.
Expect the North forward line to take on a different, less makeshift appearance in 2025. Jack Darling will start as a true half-forward, offering an aerial presence down the line and inside 50. Judge him not exclusively by his own stats, but by Nick Larkey’s. As per Ricky Mangidis’ analysis of the Melbourne trial game, it seems Clarkson is giving serious consideration to lining up with two small forwards. Robert Hansen Jr. will provide the flair, and new recruit Jacob Konstanty the defensive application. It makes sense: North’s forward line was a sieve last year – the side ranked 16th for forward-50 ground ball gets, and conceded the most scores from the back half. Beyond that, expect North’s half-forward line to be home to a couple of the midfielders who don’t line up on the wing or at the centre bounce. Sometimes that’ll be Sheezel. Other times it’ll be Davies-Uniacke, or McKercher.
Line rankings
Defence: Below Average
Midfield: Average
Forward: Below Average
Ruck: Above Average
The case for optimism
Last year was mostly bleak. But North really should have won five games – and they could have jagged a sixth. That would have represented modest but real progress on 2024, especially after a wretched 0-11 start to the year. We should be circumspect against drawing too many conclusions about that 10-game stretch where North recorded their three victories. The wins all came against modest opposition, and the collapse in the two games which immediately followed that sequence was fairly alarming. But it did honestly feel as though we were glimpsing some green shoots tentatively poking through. Similarly, this season will have (many) more losses than wins. But it definitely ought to be better. Not necessarily in terms of ladder position. I still see North as a fair way behind the likely 15th-best team. But, in absolute terms, North should be better – more functional, more organised, fitter, and closer to something resembling a durable and sustainable game plan. The kids that will deliver the brighter future the club’s fans crave are a year older and stronger. And, irrespective of what one thinks about the long-term wisdom of bringing in Parker, Darling and Daniel, they’ll make North more competitive and slightly less likely to totally unravel late in games, as they had an unfortunate tendency to do in 2024. They’ll also add a specific kind of experience that’s in critically short supply on North’s playing list – the experience of being important parts of successful football programs. I’m not sure how that’ll actually convert to wins. But I think that, rather than being dismissive of the value it will bring because it’s intangible, it’s best to acknowledge that it probably will add something.
Instead of looking purely at their own contributions, I think a better way to evaluate the long-term success of the three senior incoming trades is the effect they will have on North’s most talented young players. Can Caleb Daniel help Josh Goater and Jackson Archer improve their disposal? Will learning from Luke Parker help Tom Powell add goals and aggression to his game? Will Jack Darling help Finnbar Maley improve his kicking or leading patterns? Because, ultimately, it’s the young core that North are pinning their hopes on. If you look at this visualisation by analyst and writer Sean Lawson (small caveat: it seems to make every player a little older than they actually are), the average age of North’s top 25 players is the third-youngest in the AFL, and that includes Parker, Darling, and Daniel. Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw, Colby McKercher and Charlie Comben will take the club places – especially if they receive good-quality mentorship from players who know what it takes to win.
When you’re in the kind of situation that North have found themselves in for the last few seasons – and North fans are well in their rights to say that there’s actually no comparison in the modern AFL era – you begin yourself finding solace in the smaller things. Individual wins, yes. But even smaller. Good quarters. Good passages of play. Seeing players mature and become the best versions of themselves, as footy players and people. And there will be many of those moments. There is so much talent on this list, and as it knits together into a coherent whole, and sheds the underperforming players that will not figure in the future, those moments will become more frequent.
This might all feel like meagre consolation. But it’s important to not lose sight of the forest for the trees: they are a long way behind. As Alastair Clarkson would know, there isn’t a shortcut out of the hole that this club has found itself in. It is, as the cliche says, all about the process – creating an environment where North’s talented youth can develop, learn their roles, and become part of a system that actually works.
The case for pessimism
Everyone knows why North fans are pessimistic, so I’ll keep it brief. North are a very bad footy team, and I think they’re still a long way from being even an average footy team. The problems are many and major. The list, despite the major surgery of the last few years, still has many players which aren’t of AFL standard. There were so many moments last season – and the season before last, and the season before that – where neither the quality of North’s attacking and defensive structures, nor the application of their players were at the level required in the AFL.
It’s all well and good to talk about winning the occasional game, or quarter, or moment. North fans are entitled to ask why they can’t support a club which aspires to more. You can’t just push back Year Zero forever. I truly, deeply admire the (many) fans who’ve stuck it out. They deserve a footy team that repays their support. But it won’t happen this year. And it probably won’t happen next year, either.
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Breakout player
Has Paul Curtis broken out? That’s the trouble with these subjective self-imposed categories, you end up debating yourself. He’s a lovely player. It’s probably at least a year too early to nominate Taylor Goad, despite the big steps he seems to have taken over pre-season. Wil Dawson will play more senior footy. But I think Colby McKercher is the logical choice here. The Tasmanian appears to have completed this half-back apprenticeship and is poised for a move upfield. It feels like a good fit for his lightning speed and precise disposal.
Most important player
Luke Davies-Uniacke. Not just because he’s North’s best midfielder and probably one of the best 20 in the AFL. Not just because he’s a genuine role model for his younger teammates. But also because, if he leaves at the end of this season, it would be a devastating blow for North that no number of compensatory draft picks could adequately offset.
Biggest question to answer
So many are flying around my head. Can North improve enough to persuade Luke Davies-Uniacke to stay? Will Charlie Comben blossom into the elite defensive interceptor North needs? What will the composition of the midfield look like? Will Alastair Clarkson’s job come under pressure if North don’t move up the ladder? But probably the most pertinent is this: can Clarkson articulate a tactical identity that this side can rely on when they are finally ready to rise up the ladder?
What success looks like
Progress. It doesn’t have to mean moving many spots up the ladder. In fact, it probably won’t. If North won twice as many games last year, they’d only have moved up one spot. Winning three times as many games would have elevated them to the heady heights of… 15th. But it must mean winning more games and staying in the games they don’t win for longer. North’s fans – and many of their players – need to believe that they represent a club that’s doing something other than making up the numbers.
In a nutshell
North aren’t a good side, and they’re still a long way from being a good side. Their strategy over the summer was predicated on improving enough to help their supporters see some light at the end of the tunnel, and to hold onto Davies-Uniacke. We need to see it.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against North? Share your thoughts in the comments.