2025 AFL Season Previews: Melbourne

The only way is up.

For preview number 10 (double figures!), I’m off to Demonland.

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2024 ladder position: 14th (11 wins, 12 losses)

2024 best-and-fairest: Jack Viney

Senior coach: Simon Goodwin

Story of the season

At approximately 10 minutes to four on King’s Birthday afternoon, just as the siren was blowing for quarter-time, Darcy Moore thrust his knee into Christian Petracca’s side when attempting to spoil the ball about 35 metres from Melbourrne’s goal. It looked innocuous enough. Petracca winced and came off for a medical assessment. Club doctors cleared him to return to the field. In the perfect clarity of hindsight, they were wrong to do so – because Petracca had actually sustained the kind of injuries you would normally expect in a moderately severe car accident. The incident, its traumatic aftermath, and the speculation it ignited about Petracca’s future as a Melbourne player would totally consume a season that, until that fateful moment, was probably still in the normal range of bad. Don’t get me wrong: things weren’t going great. The Dees had just suffered a 92-point belting at the hands of Fremantle, Simon Goodwin’s new game plan hadn’t really clicked, and there were persistent rumours about the health and wellbeing of Clayton Oliver. But, despite all that, they were still just percentage away from seventh spot, and only a game away from fourth.

Unsurprisingly, the bottom fell out of Melbourne’s season after the Petracca incident. Spare a thought for the players who were forced to endure the saga of another traumatic injury to a Premiership teammate, less than 12 months after Angus Brayshaw suffered the concussion that ended his career. The Demons won the games they were supposed to, lost the rest, and limped to 14th. Oh, and there was still time for their President to conduct a fairly disastrous radio interview where she eventually admitted that she’d not spoken to Petracca since the incident. I suspect that, for most Demons fans, the end of 2024 was a blessing.

Summary of game style

To be honest, I was expecting to have been able to copy and paste this section – not literally, I would never recycle content! – from last year’s preview. Contested dominance leading to territorial dominance and repeat inside-50 entries, buttressed by a high defensive press based on aerial interceptions. But then, something changed. Coach Simon Goodwin decided that his side’s brawn needed a little more beauty, their chaos a little more control. Here are the results:

What you’re looking at is a drastic decline in Melbourne’s contested game – and Simon Goodwin’s unsuccessful attempt to respond to that decline. Because of the significant disruption around Melbourne’s season, it’s difficult to unpick the causal chain of events here. What caused what? I think the story is that Goodwin decided to recalibrate the game plan in favour of more sophisticated ball movement, which caused a decline in the Demon’s contested game, which was then (greatly) exacerbated by Oliver’s form and Petracca’s injury, which then caused Goodwin to double down on the new, more control-oriented game plan as a way of offsetting his side’s sudden contested weakness and loss of territorial dominance. It looked like an awkward fit for Melbourne’s list. But it was also, to an extent, forced by circumstance.

List changes

In: 

• Harvey Langford (2024 National Draft, pick #6)

• Xavier Lindsay (2024 National Draft, pick #11)

• Aidan Johnson (2024 National Draft, pick #68)

• Ricky Mentha Jr. (Category B Rookie)

• Tom Campbell (free agent)

• Harry Sharp (trade – Brisbane)

• Jack Henderson (Supplemental Selection Period)

• Jai Culley (Supplemental Selection Period)

Out:

• Alex Neal-Bullen (trade – Adelaide)

• Josh Schache (delisted)

• Joel Smith (delisted)

• Adam Tomlinson (delisted)

• Kyah Farris-White (delisted)

• Angus Brayshaw (retired)

• Ben Brown (retired)

• Lachie Hunter (retired)

List profile

Number of top-10 draft picks: seven (T-7th)

Average age at Opening Round: 25.2 (4th)

Average number of games played: 76.4 (4th)

Some emotionally heavy departures. Angus Brayshaw was a beloved leader whose retirement and clear struggles to accept said retirement had, I suspect, a larger impact on the playing group than is commonly understood. Alex Neal-Bullen was a firm favourite with supporters and an important glue guy on the field. Joel Smith and Lachie Hunter, meanwhile, came to represent the club’s off-field issues – and Josh Schache the heavy burden of unrealised potential as a top draft pick.

As for the incomings, this is the second consecutive year where Melbourne have prioritised the draft, following several seasons where they tried to supplement their Premiership-winning list with established talent (with mixed results). It feels like an each-way bet meant to enable an elite flag-winning core group (although one with lots of miles on the clock) to squeeze out a couple more deep September runs, while also supporting a promising young and mid-age group. The selections of players that most draft watchers predicted would contribute from day one – Harvey Langford, Xavier Lindsay, and Caleb Windsor – makes lots of sense in this context, as does the choice to select players whose profiles (inside grunt and high-quality disposal) align well with Melbourne’s needs. It makes sense on paper. And I suppose you can just trade out future firsts indefinitely, or at least until that asteroid hits us.

The defence is still good, but not quite what it was when the Demons were the best side in the competition. Of all Melbourne’s old-timers (this is a relative term, they’re all younger than me), it feels like Steven May is probably the closest to the end. He’s still great in the air, but increasingly vulnerable at ground level. Tom McDonald looks comfortable down back but one suspects Father Time is also beginning to check his watch. Jake Lever is still at the peak of his powers and should now be considered the side’s best defender. If, as seems likely at the time of writing, Harrison Petty returns to the defence, then Melbourne fans should feel content about their key defensive stocks. Slightly further up the field, Trent Rivers and Judd McVee have emerged as young leaders and important parts of Melbourne’s future. It’s a shame that the latter looks like he’ll miss the first month with a hamstring injury.

There is uncertainty about the state of Melbourne’s midfield in 2025 because there is uncertainty about the form and health of its two best players. Superficially, there’s no reason a fit Petracca and Clayton Oliver can’t return to their positions at the summit of the sport – however, the psychological and emotional components of their respective absences, as well as the massive amounts of media scrutiny, make it hard to predict what will happen. If both rediscover their peak form in 2025, then Melbourne’s midfield will once again be one of the competition’s very best. The Kysaiah Pickett midfield experiment must continue – his skill and speed are dazzling points of difference. Caleb Windsor had a very good debut season on a wing. The word out of Casey is that, with injury having ruled out Judd McVee for the first few weeks, Windsor might start off half-back this season.

The forward line remains the obvious point of weakness, at least for a side which still nurtures ambitions of competing for the Premiership. Let’s start with the good: Pickett is Pickett, Bayley Fritsch remains one of the game’s best finishers, Jake Melksham will be back, and Jacob Van Rooyen’s development has been steady without (yet) being spectacular. Then there are the question marks. Neal-Bullen’s role was significant to both Melbourne’s ball movement and forward pressure. Can Tom Sparrow or Kade Chandler step into his shoes? Daniel “Disco” Turner has been a minor revelation as a makeshift key forward, but one is entitled to ask if he can reach and maintain the required level. Shane McAdam won’t play any AFL this season after rupturing his achilles and, given the seriousness of the injury, there are significant questions about how much more AFL he’ll ever play. As a forward, Harrison Petty makes a fine centre half-back. And then there’s Matthew Jefferson. It’s now been two years since he was taken with pick 15 in the 2022 draft, and he’s still not debuted at AFL level. Melbourne probably need him to develop into at least an adequate foil for Van Rooyen. A good friend who read a draft of this preview also suggested I mention Charlie Spargo, the useful small forward and occasional DJ who will hopefully return from a nasty achilles injury early in the year.

Line rankings

Defence: Above Average

Midfield: Elite

Forward: Average

Ruck: Elite

The case for optimism

Last season could literally not have gone any worse. Between the turmoil of the Petracca saga, the Clayton Oliver saga, the Joel Smith saga and the Kate Roffey saga – I’ve probably forgotten some – I found myself texting my Melbourne-supporting friends messages of what can really only be described as condolence. It was a tough year (by the ultimately trivial standards of footy). The silver lining to the black rain clouds which hung moodily over Melbourne’s season was that, much like Adelaide, they received the draft pick of a very bad side while in reality being a mediocre one. Harvey Langford looks like an ideal long-term addition to the midfield and will probably start on a half-forward flank, where his tackling pressure and ball use can shine. Xavier Lindsay, the other exciting new draftee, will probably start from half-back before eventually shifting to a wing/outside midfielder position as his aerobic capacity improves.

Langford and Lindsay will complement an underrated core of young and mid-aged players. Windsor, McVee, Pickett, Rivers, Van Rooyen and Petty – there’s a lot of talent there. At this stage, Pickett is the only true star, but that’s not to say that the likes of Rivers, Van Rooyen, Windsor or Langford won’t join him at that level. True, it probably doesn’t project to be as outstanding as the Petracca-Gawn-Oliver-May-Lever group, but those guys are still around. If the Demons can catch the tail end of one wave and the beginning of another, they could be in business.

The other reason to suspect that Melbourne are prime candidates to bounce up the ladder in 2025 is that they are projected to have one of the softest draws of any side (the equal second-easiest, according to the AFL website). Despite a reasonably tough first month, the Demons double up against North Melbourne, West Coast, St Kilda, and Gold Coast (and Hawthorn and Collingwood). If they struggle, it probably won’t be because of their draw.

The case for pessimism

The error bars on the club’s most important players are so wide. I’ve already discussed Petracca and Oliver. Steven May is showing signs of decline. Max Gawn isn’t, but he’s old too. There’s surely some uncertainty about which club Kysaiah Pickett will be playing at in 2026. Their form looms as a plebiscite on Melbourne’s internal culture, and the quality of its game plan.

Which brings me to the coach. There are wide error bars on Simon Goodwin, too. In modern footy history, probably only Luke Beveridge can rival the South Australian for the title of “Premiership-winning coach whose basic coaching skills are most often called into question”. One can debate his level of complicity in Melbourne’s well-documented off-field issues. But what’s harder to dispute is that, in 2024, Goodwin departed from the game plan that had delivered success. For the three years spanning 2021 to 2023, the Dees averaged 13.8 more ground ball gets than marks per game. It was a style which catered to their list’s natural strengths and also enabled them to quickly gain territory, partially offsetting the relative weakness of their forward line. In 2024, that flipped the other way: Melbourne averaged 6.8 more marks than ground balls. It should be said, some of this was – perhaps most of it – was driven by the midfield personnel issues which significantly weakened the contested and clearance-winning ability that was the foundation for their period of success. I think the basic idea was that Goodwin, mindful of his side’s predictability and failure to generate quality inside-50 entries in key games, believed that controlling the ball would allow for better entries, more marks inside 50, and better looks at goal. Elements of the rejigged style worked: in their 11 wins, the Dees averaged 106 marks, compared to an average of just 83 in their losses. However – acknowledging the caveats of important personnel either missing or below their best – he overcorrected. As I wrote in the preview ahead of last season, I don’t think Melbourne’s old style was “found out” in any meaningful way. They were comfortably the better side in both of their finals in 2023. They just didn’t take enough of their chances. Flipping the switch from chaos to control ended up sacrificing what made them a special team in the first place.

Two questions arise from that. The first: what will Goodwin do in 2025? The second: if he chooses to revert back to something like the old game plan, how frictionless will that reversion be? I don’t know the answer to either. Melbourne’s pre-season hitout against North Melbourne suggested a greater focus on using run and handballs to create situations where good ball users could deliver high-quality kicks inside 50. But, given the quality of the conditions and the opposition, perhaps the only robust bit of intel to take away from it is that Clayton Oliver appears to be in physically good condition.

The final cause for pessimism is that I have my doubts about whether the quality of Melbourne’s forward line – especially the talls – can live up to the scale of the team’s ambitions. It’s true that the forward line wasn’t a hindrance in 2021. And it’s true that if a style that emphasises better quality entries actually clicks, that will greatly help things. But I think it’s equally true to say that the Demons won’t have the same kind of edge in contested footy that made the 2021 side so dominant in all other phases of play.

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Breakout player

The Demons had a disastrous 2024. But, on a personal level, Caleb Windsor had an impressive debut season. The young winger looked immediately at ease at AFL level. With a second pre-season under his belt, he should be able to play better, for longer. I suspect this will also be the season when more of the competition learns just how good Trent Rivers really is – especially if he continues to spend some time on-ball.

Most important player

Christian Petracca, both in terms of what he brings to the Demons when he’s on the field, and the furore caused by his absence. One of the competition’s best players. If he returns healthy and happy, Melbourne will significantly improve – and supporters’ sagging spirits will lift.

Biggest question to answer

Does this list have another deep September run in it? Even if, Pickett aside, it’s hard to see where the next batch of superstars is (although this could totally change in a year or two), Melbourne still have the ones that delivered them the flag four years ago. But they’ve been through a hell of a lot.

What success looks like

Getting back into finals, extracting the best level of performance from the established stars, adopting (or re-adopting) a game plan that best suits their talents, and holding onto Pickett and Petracca.

In a nutshell

The Demons still have as much elite talent as any other list, but also significant questions about that elite group’s likely performance level in 2025 and the quality of the game plan. Nothing from first to 14th would shock me.

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Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Dees? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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