2025 AFL Season Previews: Essendon

Turning a big ship around takes time.

Preview number five takes me to Windy Hill.

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2024 ladder position: 11th (11 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw)

2024 best-and-fairest: Zach Merrett

Senior coach: Brad Scott

Couldn’t the club website have picked a less shiny photo of him?

Story of the season

“If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.” – Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa (The Leopard)

Same number of wins, same best-and-fairest winner, same early promise and cautious optimism fading to familiar disappointment. And yet – and yet – this Essendon season felt slightly different from the last few. Partly it was because of some young players taking steps. Partly it was because, as much as one can quibble that they weren’t as good as their ladder position suggested, they were in the top eight at the end of Round 20. And partly it was because of some bold off-season moves (more on them later). That’s not to say there wasn’t bitter disappointment. Oh, there was plenty of that. The Bombers threw away home wins against the Crows and the Suns, and put in some shockers against Port and the Saints. But there were also some genuinely impressive wins against the Dogs, Giants, and Pies. The Bombers aren’t a good team yet. But, for the first time in several years, one can see a plan – or at least the concept of one.

Summary of game style

Essendon play a brand of uncontested, high-possession footy common to a few teams that play most of their home games at Docklands. Call it Marvelball. The Bombers continue to rank highly in the benchmarks of uncontested footy. In 2024, they were first in the AFL for disposals, third for marks (despite only being 11th for contested marks), 15th for ruck contests, 18th for contested possession share, and 18th for metres gained per disposal. These stats give you a good idea of how the Bombers like to play – gaining territory and maintaining control by finding teammates in space, even if it means foregoing a more direct path to goal. The insistence on maintaining possession came at a cost, though – despite having a stack of the ball, Essendon ranked just 16th for scoring shots per inside-50 entry and 17th for opposition rebound 50 rate.

Defensively, Essendon opt to generate turnovers by intercepting rather than winning the ball in close. It’s risky – they lose the highest share of defensive one-on-ones – but occasionally very effective: they were third in the AFL for intercept possessions differential in 2024.

List changes

In: 

• Isaac Kako (2024 National Draft, pick #13 – Next Generation Academy)

• Kayle Gerreyn (2024 National Draft, pick #37)

• Angus Clarke (2024 National Draft, pick #39)

• Rhys Unwin (2024 National Draft, pick #61)

• Zak Johnson (2024 National Draft, pick #70)

• Archer Day-Wicks (2024 Rookie Draft)

• Jayden Nguyen (Category B rookie)

• Jaxon Prior (Supplemental Selection Period)

• Tom Edwards (Supplemental Selection Period)

Out:

• Kaine Baldwin (delisted)

• Jayden Davey (delisted)

• Nick Hind (delisted)

• Jaiden Hunter (delisted)

• Tex Wanganeen (delisted)

• Sam Weideman (delisted)

• Jake Kelly (retired)

• Dyson Heppell (retired)

• Jake Stringer (trade – Greater Western Sydney)

List profile

Number of top-10 draft picks: nine (3rd)

Average age at Opening Round: 24 (15th)

Average number of games played: 69.6 (11th)

I really like what Essendon did in the off-season – beginning with their decision to trade Jake Stringer to the Giants. Stringer has been a very good AFL player. He was often a very good player for Essendon. Trading him to the Giants only netted the Bombers pick 53. But it was still absolutely the right thing to do. There were times when Stringer’s attitude and effort weren’t commensurate with what was expected of a senior player in a young team. And, more pertinently, his presence blocked the pathway for a young forward/midfielder who could have taken the spot and made it their own. Moreover, trading Stringer sent a strong signal to Essendon fans that the club would be less tolerant of conditional effort, and more committed to extending a chance to young players who might make it, instead of persisting with older players they knew wouldn’t take them to the top. It’s a gain for player and club.

I’m also bullish on Essendon’s draft haul, not even necessarily because of the quality of players they’ve picked up (we won’t really know the answer to that for at least two years) but, again, because of the signal it sends – in what was widely hailed as the deepest draft in a generation, the Bombers list management team cleared space, made some tough calls in delisting fringe players with famous surnames, and threw some darts at the board. It feels like the penny has finally dropped. No more shortcuts. It’s possible to maintain a quality list through the trade and free agency systems. But in order to build one in the first place, you need the draft. On paper, Essendon have addressed needs and picked up some intriguing prospects. Isaac Kako was lauded as one of the two best small forwards in the draft and the Bombers got him without giving up a first-round pick, instead moving their 2024 first into next year. Kayle Gerreyn is the size of a ruck yet moves like a midfielder and, if he develops according to his potential, looms as the obvious replacement for Peter Wright (or perhaps even Sam Draper). Angus Clarke put in some impressive performances for South Australia during his under-18 year, while Rhys Unwin seems like precisely the kind of speculative, high-upside pick you roll with that deep in the draft.

Draft picks are ultimately weighted coin tosses. Some are 99% likely to come up on your side, others more like 1%. Essendon will hope they have luck on their side, because their list is still in need of top-end talent (Zach Merrett being a notable exception). To their credit, the Bombers have done very well to turn Nic Martin and Sam Durham into good AFL players at virtually no draft cost. Jordan Ridley is a great interceptor when not in the treatment room. Kyle Langford has benefited from a role change to become one of the league’s best medium-sized forwards. But after that, it becomes harder to identify clear winners – the unfortunate dividend of years of underwhelming (and unlucky) drafting, and a list management strategy under Adrian Dodoro that sometimes seemed to prioritise “wins” at the trade table over long-term list health.

The medium-term trajectory of the Bombers defence hinges on two players who unfortunately haven’t been able to get their bodies right. Jordan Ridley has shown enough to be classed as one of the game’s best interceptors, but a succession of injuries has kept him to just 94 games since he was drafted. Zach Reid, meanwhile, is more of a concept than a player, managing just nine games since his debut – one for each of the players picked before him in the 2020 draft that recurs in Essendon fans’ nightmares. Reid and Ridley finding full fitness would transform the Essendon back line, freeing up Ben McKay to assume more of an intercepting role and consigning Jayden Laverde to the bench. Andrew McGrath and Mason Redman provide decent rebounding abilities, while Brad Scott and Bombers fans will hope Archie Roberts will build on the promising signs he showed in his first season. Dylan Shiel will hope that a pre-season switch to half-back will give his career a second wind.

The midfield is the area of the field where the Bombers have made the most recent progress. A solid core appears to finally be emerging. Merrett’s contributions go without saying, Durham continues to improve, and Jye Caldwell provides defensive accountability. Coach Brad Scott rates Darcy Parish’s ability to win clearances and so has preferred to find a spot for him when fit, even if it means dialling down Durham’s centre bounce attendances. The obvious weakness is that, despite Durham’s size and Caldwell’s defensive discipline, the Bombers midfield still really struggles in close. They were 15th for both ground ball gets and hard ball gets differential last season, suggesting that bigger bodies and effective opposition ground ball schemes still pose a big problem. The word from pre-season is that Nic Martin will be moved back up the ground to an attacking midfield/wing role, which to me seems a better use of risk-taking than a half-back role he never seemed quite suited for. He makes things happen. Elijah Tsatas and Ben Hobbs, meanwhile, need to show significant progress. There’s been talk that the former has impressed in pre-season. I’ll believe it when I see him perform in the real stuff.

Much like the defence, the forward line has been a problem area. Statistically, Essendon don’t generate many scoring shots per inside-50 entry and still don’t function as effectively as they should as the first line of defence. Most of the solutions might already be at the club. Given his talent and the fact that small forwards typically need the least physical development, Kako will slot straight in. He should be an important part of how Essendon play on both sides of the ball. Kako’s mate Nate Caddy looks a star in the making and should be able to form a useful partnership with Langford and Harrison Jones. But there are still many unanswered questions. Jade Gresham’s first season in red and black was underwhelming and his spot at half-forward should be considered as up for grabs. 2025 looms as a make-or-break season for both Peter Wright, who was dropped late in the season, and Archie Perkins. And then there’s the enigma-in-chief, Sam Draper, who, despite his clear talent, never quite convinces as either a ruck or a full-forward.

A quick word is warranted on the ruck situation, because the Bombers are one of the few teams left in the AFL to play with two of them. Although, to his credit, he’d probably play until 50 if he could, Todd Goldstein has hit the end and should be considered strictly depth in 2025. Nick Bryan has shown good signs and is likely to share primary ruck duties with Draper, who – frustratingly – still hasn’t developed the aerobic capacity to assume the role on his own.

Line rankings

Defence: Average

Midfield: Above Average

Forwards: Average

Ruck: Above Average

The case for optimism

It wasn’t by as much as their fans craved, but Bombers really did get better in some key areas last year. Their improvement in some of the foundational metrics of modern footy is fairly striking. Consider this:

I think this tells a very neat – and substantially true – story. The Bombers evolved from being an defensively brittle, slightly neurotic team that was often guilty of over-using the ball into one that, despite having many of the same flaws, also became better at forcing opposition turnovers, principally thanks to a reconfigured pressing scheme and further improvement from the likes of Durham and Caldwell. The Dons went from 13th for forcing opposition turnovers in 2023 to fourth last season. And although they remain mediocre at preventing opposition scores from the back half (see: the Crows’ spectacular coast-to-coast goal in Round 19), the Dons improved to the tune of a goal a game when it came to preventing opposition front half scoring. That all represents real growth.

What this table also shows is that Essendon under Brad Scott still haven’t learnt how to effectively convert possession into scores. I think that’s a function of a ball movement scheme that’s still too slow, too fussy and prone to being suffocated by a disciplined opposition defensive zone (partly because of a lack of high-quality kicks in the side), and an underperforming forward line. The decline in Essendon’s rate of scoring shots per inside 50 entry (eighth in 2023 to 16th in 2024, below Richmond) would probably rank as one of Scott’s biggest concerns. Kako ought to help with locking the ball in. But I digress. This is the optimism section. And what Bombers fans should conclude from looking at the chart up there is that their team is finally laying the foundations for a durable modern style.

It’s totally understandable that two decades of failure have bred pessimism. But I think you can look at Essendon and see a team that isn’t far away from making a leap. I saw an analogy the other day that, on reflection, I agree with: Essendon are, if you squint, reminiscent of Hawthorn before they jumped up the ladder last season. Before you laugh, consider this: both teams showed up statistically before they started racking up wins. Both teams’ lists were regarded as pedestrian with few star players. Hell, I’ll go one further – both teams have had a 2021 mid-season draftee emerge as one of their best midfielders. There’s something to work with at Windy Hill. A notionally soft draw should make the task simpler.

The case for pessimism

Progress, yes. But is there enough? Brad Scott was correct when he spoke about preferring a long, sustainable process that would enable the club to contend for flags over the next eight years over the rollercoasters and sugar hits of the last 20 years. But it’s still a frustrating thing to hear. Firstly, because it’s a tacit admission that the 2017-2022 list build was a failure. And secondly because it’s also an admission that, in his view, there’s still a way to go. Bombers fans deserve better. And they’re entitled to wonder if they can trust the club hierarchy to make decisions that increase the chances of on-field success. After all – to draw another comparison with Hawthorn – the list management team only saw fit to offer fringe player Massimo D’Ambrosio a one-year deal. He made the All-Australian squad last year.

Whatever the stats say, it can be disheartening to see your team display the same failings and lose games in the same way, time and time again. The Bombers were 4-1 and 8-5 in 2023, and 8-1-2 in 2024 before fading out dismally. Perhaps those were “deceptive” ladder positions. But to still not make finals in either season must be considered a failure. And ultimately, both failures had similar origins. Just like last season, the Bombers remain porous in defensive transition. Too often last season, their forward line was a trampoline (they were 17th for opposition rebound 50 rate) and their defence a sieve (15th for rebound 50 rate and 15th for opposition scoring shots per inside-50 entry). For a team that relishes control when they have the ball (the Bombers had the third-highest ratio of marks to ground balls), they struggle to maintain control when they don’t have it. Those weaknesses have created a clear blueprint for how to prosper against Essendon: forcing turnovers in your defensive zone and exploiting their lackadaisical defensive running.

The final thing to say is that, as much as Essendon’s most recent draft crop seems encouraging, and how well they’ve done with the recruitment and development of Durham and Martin, they really need a couple of their younger players to show more than they have thus far. There’s only so long we can talk about the likes of Tsatas, Hobbs, Perkins and Nik Cox as prospects. Eventually, they’re just busts, and the Bombers drift a little further away from having the list they need to challenge.

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Breakout player

Depends on definitions. If you don’t think Nate Caddy’s first season counted as a breakout, then I’ll say him. There’s something about the way this kid leaps. Archie Roberts has a bit of class and a bit of mongrel. But, for the sake of Essendon’s current list build, it’s very important that Elijah Tsatas makes good on the promise he showed in his draft year.

Most important player

Perhaps the easiest of the 18 versions of this question to answer. Zach Merrett has handled himself admirably during some difficult seasons for the club, and remains, at the time of writing, the Bombers’ one true gun player.

Biggest question to answer

How much patience will Essendon fans and the club hierarchy have with Brad Scott? What looks on the surface like treading water is, in my opinion, better interpreted as the slow, grinding process of turning a big ship around. It almost always takes time. But frustration, both with the slow pace of progress, and the success of Essendon’s traditional rivals, will increase the scrutiny.

What success looks like

In what once again shapes as an even competition separated by a clear bottom three, it’s absolutely not unthinkable for Essendon to make the finals. I won’t say anything about a certain notorious streak. What I will say (again), is that the Bombers were in the eight at the end of Round 20. They’re not that far away. If their crop of under-23 players takes the next step, they could do it. External perceptions of list quality can change very, very quickly.

In a nutshell

Essendon are still trying to do one of the hardest things in footy: going from being average to being good. From the outside, two extra Premiership points is a meagre return for another season of dashed hopes. The journey is long, the destination uncertain. But, for the first time in a while, I think the Bombers are walking down the road.

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Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against Essendon? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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