2025 AFL Season Previews: Collingwood

One last job.

In my fourth preview, I consider the prospects of the 2023 Premiers.

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2024 ladder position: 9th (12 wins, 9 losses, 2 draws)

2024 best-and-fairest: Nick Daicos

Senior coach: Craig McRae

Story of the season

A disappointing, although not quite disastrous, Premiership defence. The Pies played GWS to a virtual draw in Opening Round, but variance turned it into a five-goal loss. It was the next two games, well-deserved defeats against the Swans and Saints, that set some alarm bells ringing (and the footy media aflutter). Three straight wins, including impressive performances against Brisbane at the Gabba and Port at the MCG, got the cart back on the tracks, until a brutal run of four straight losses from Round 16 knocked it right back off again. The 66 point defeat to Hawthorn in the pouring rain at the MCG was richly symbolic – a daring, cavalier team imperiously dispatching the team that until, so recently, had set the standard in that regard. Results elsewhere meant that four wins in five, including a couple of classic McRae heart-stoppers, weren’t enough for Collingwood to scrape into the eight, where they could well have taken a couple of scalps. Nagging injuries to key players certainly didn’t help things. Tom Mitchell, Dan McStay, Brody Mihocek and Jordan De Goey all missed significant amounts of footy. And Collingwood’s best was still very good indeed. But, in a season where it felt like they were always playing catch up, they could never build enough momentum.

Summary of game style

Under coach Craig McRae, Collingwood have made extensive use of a very simple concept: the ball moves faster than the player. The Pies defend by creating pressure around the ball carrier to force poor-quality disposals and create interceptions. They attack by turning those interceptions into quick, incisive attacks. It’s a high-wire act – the Pies were 17th for disposal efficiency last season, after being eighth in their Premiership year – but when it works, it really works. Only Geelong used fewer possessions to transition from their defensive 50 to attacking 50, and no team last season was better than Collingwood at turning their inside-50 entries in scoring shots.

The main reason for Collingwood winning a white-knuckle flag one year and missing finals the next wasn’t any significant change in their own game plan. It was the adjustments rival teams made to counter them, with a little bit of luck-based regression to the mean sprinkled in. Collingwood’s opposition became much better at not falling into the traps McRae set (namely, funnelling teams into vulnerable parts of the ground where the Pies could force turnovers). Instead, they didn’t give Collingwood the ball. The Pies were 15th for opposition uncontested possessions and 14th for opposition marks, after being middle of the pack in those metrics in 2023. Control calmed the chaos. The loss of Collingwood’s persistent tactical advantage was compounded by injuries to key personnel which made their style sustainable in 2022 and 2023. The biggest loss was to Nathan Murphy, whose unfortunate concussion-enforced retirement deprived the Pies of their best tall stopper and inhibited Darcy Moore’s ability to intercept. Being without Tom Mitchell for long stretches of last year also hurt more than was widely known. Without him, the Pies struggled to get first possession. Not being able to win the ball when it’s in dispute, or reliably turn it over, is a nasty combination.

List changes

In: 

• Joel Cochran (2024 National Draft, pick #47)

• Charlie West (2024 National Draft, pick #50)

• Will Hayes (2024 National Draft, pick #56)

• Tim Membrey (delisted free agent)

• Dan Houston (trade – Port Adelaide)

• Harry Perryman (free agent – Greater Western Sydney)

Out:

• John Noble (trade – Gold Coast)

• Joe Richards (trade – Port Adelaide)

• Aiden Begg (delisted)

• Jack Bytel (delisted)

• Josh Eyre (delisted)

• Nathan Kreuger (delisted)

• Nathan Murphy (retired)

• Josh Carmichael (retired)

List profile

Number of top-10 draft picks: five (T-13th)

Average age at Opening Round: 26.4 (oldest)

Average number of games played: 102.1 (most)

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Pies are old. In fact, I’m not sure there’s ever been an older or more experienced list in the AFL. Just take a look at the chart above – it’s fairly unprecedented. Although the fact of Collingwood’s age raises a question; what’s actually in scope for a season preview? Assembling such an old list, and assigning a low priority to the draft, will most likely be a problem for Craig McRae’s side in 2026, 2027 and 2028. But in 2025? I’m not so sure.

The main reason why is that Collingwood’s three trade and free agency acquisitions will all serve to immediately improve the team. The obvious coup is Dan Houston. He’s the competition’s best kick and, with due respect to these players, a massive upgrade on the likes of John Noble and Oleg Markov. Given the importance of generating quick, incisive back-half ball movement to McRae’s game plan, I’d expect Houston to start off half-back. But there would surely be a temptation to occasionally push him upfield and have him delivering darts to the Pies forwards. Harry Perryman’s size and positional versatility (he can do a job in the middle, on half-back, and even on a wing) will provide McRae with a good set of options, but I’d expect him to slot into the midfield rotation given Scott Pendlebury’s age and Jordan De Goey and Tom Mitchell’s struggles with injury. Tim Membrey, meanwhile, will provide marking prowess (he ranked as elite for both contested marks and marks on the lead last season) and defensive pressure (he was also elite for tackles inside 50) to a forward line that thrives on bringing the ball to ground and extracting errors from opposition defenders.

Respectively, each of these players will fortify their respective lines. But that doesn’t mean Collingwood’s list is flawless. Far from it. The defence is still sorely missing Nathan Murphy, who was sadly forced to retire after one too many concussions. His accountability allowed Darcy Moore to peel off, intercept, and initiate attacking moves from deep positions. It’s no surprise that, forced into a different role and deprived of his key defensive partner, Moore struggled (by his lofty standards) last season. Billy Frampton and Jeremy Howe – the latter of whom performed admirably given he was playing undersized – are underwhelming replacements. Howe’s change of role also weakened Collingwood’s ability to lock down on opposition smalls and mediums. It’s no coincidence that the side’s worst losses involved smalls and half-forwards getting off the leash. On the bright side, the decision to shift Steele Sidebottom from the wing to a physically less demanding role at half-back probably extended the veteran’s career by a year and made good use of his footy IQ.

The midfield is where most of the star power is concentrated. There’s nothing to say about Nick Daicos that hasn’t already been said. His presence is a large part of why I’m sceptical that the Pies will truly bottom out in the medium-term. Critics might call De Goey a moments player, but they’re bloody good moments. Perryman and, if he can return to fitness, Tom Mitchell, will help the Pies fix their most glaring midfield weakness – winning first use. Collingwood were ranked 18th for hard ball gets differential (hard ball gets minus opposition hard ball gets), which resulted in lots of time without the ball (the Pies were 16th for disposal differential, 16th for uncontested possession differential, and 17th for mark differential).

Up forward, the addition of Membrey and return of Brody Mihocek (although he’s a watch given the severity of his injury and how it might impact his strength in marking contests) and Dan McStay will help Bobby Hill and Lachie Schultz, who were often forced to feed on scraps in 2024. Despite the seemingly modest personnel, Collingwood’s forward line continues to function very well – they were first in the AFL last season for scoring shots inside 50. The biggest question is whether McRae will play all three tall forwards (Mihocek, Membrey and McStay) together, and, if so, how that impacts the space available for the smaller forwards. If the Pies can improve their volume of inside-50 entries (they ranked ninth in 2024) while maintaining their efficiency, their scoring power will increase. Mason Cox and Will Hoskin-Elliott are adequate depth options.

Line rankings

Defence: Average

Midfield: Elite

Forward: Above Average

Ruck: Above Average

The case for optimism

You want a warm take? List age is an overrated measure of long-term success, especially for a club like Collingwood – and especially when Collingwood has a formidable recruitment asset in the form of Nick Daicos. Besides, the Pies are only doing what they told us they’d do. Here’s (former) club president, Jeff Browne, in early 2024: “For successful clubs who don't want to drop down to the bottom, the draft doesn't really work for them.” Browne was articulating a strategy that many people associate with Geelong – it’s better to reduce risk by recruiting established players rather than rely on the crapshoot of the draft. As Browne alluded to, the strategy isn’t available to all clubs. But it is available to Collingwood.

Collingwood’s coaches and list management team correctly identified three pressing needs for their list – back-half ball use, defensive midfield depth, and another marking tall to split packs, provide an outlet and relieve the pressure on an ageing (and convalescing) Brody Mihocek. And they went out and addressed them all. Yes, John Noble and Joe Richards were useful depth. And yes, they virtually ignored the draft (again). But, come on, it’s Dan Houston. He’ll either transform Collingwood’s back-half ball movement – the engine of their Premiership success in 2023 – or push up the ground and upgrade the quality of their delivery inside 50. Either way, he shapes as a superb addition.

It’s possible to go further. Trying to win another Premiership while the likes of Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Howe (and, to a slightly lesser extent, Mitchell and Mihocek) are still on the list isn’t just a sensible thing to do – it’s the responsible list management choice. To return to the point I opened this section with – for clubs like Collingwood, it’s not totally absurd to say that the draft is overrated, and that, through shrewd trade and free agency acquisitions (and a healthy smattering of father-son picks), you can delay the future. Although the voodoo might not be quite as potent as it was in 2022 and 2023, we know that McRae’s game plan stacks up under pressure. And besides, trading out their 2025 first round pick would have made some sense even if it hadn’t netted Dan Houston. A lot can change with the entire under-18 season to play, but prospective father-son pick Thomas McGuane currently looks likely to be taken in the first round of the 2025 draft.

The case for pessimism

Yes, the point of list management is to create a competitive AFL list and, ultimately, to win footy games. In that respect, the Pies’ strategy makes sense. But there’s trying to squeeze out another Premiership and delaying the future – and there’s trying to defy gravity. As far as I can tell, Collingwood’s list is the oldest and most experienced in AFL history. And, as much as the point of AFL list management is to win, not simply hoard talented young players, there’s no denying that the Pies are incurring some major risks.

Bobby Hill turned 25 on February 9th. And when he did, the mantle of second-best player under 25 was almost certainly passed to Beau McCreery. I like Beau McCreery! He’s a great example of the kind of committed role player you can find late in the draft. But I don’t think it’s unfair to say that teams with dreams of staying at the top indefinitely should have a deeper pool of young talent. What makes Geelong’s list management strategy viable is their supernatural ability to convert low-value draft picks into contributing players. Tom Stewart was pick #40 in the 2016 draft, and reigning Rising Star winner, Ollie Dempsey, was pick #15 in the 2022 rookie draft. Collingwood used to do that (Dane Swan being the canonical example), but they haven’t for some time. As I’m writing, there really is a dearth of young talent. Perhaps Ed Allan and Harry DeMattia will break out this year. But it’s unlikely they’ll do so to the extent that it meaningfully changes the trajectory of Collingwood’s youth.

There’s been a fair amount of comparison of Collingwood’s likely best 22 in 2025 with their 2023 Premiership team in order to show that the former is stronger. And, in isolation, you can make that argument. But it ignores one of the major downsides of players playing on into their mid-30s – they get worse. Pendlebury, Howe, Sidebottom et al have all gotten cleverer. But their bodies simply aren’t allowing them to do the same things, to the same standard, as earlier in their career. With the exception of Jack Crisp, who continues to be the model of consistency, it’s very hard to see Collingwood’s 30+ brigade having the same impact as in 2023.

I’ve spoken about the quality and usefulness of the three new acquisitions. But the Pies still haven’t fixed what is arguably the biggest hole in their list – a key defensive partner to replace Darcy Moore. Can McRae find the answer among Billy Frampton, Jeremy Howe or Charlie Dean? I have my doubts. It might not be this year. But I suspect unless they have a Nick Daicos-style gift fall into their hands, the Magpie Army might be about to learn that you can’t defy gravity forever.

One final point: Collingwood are predicted to have a tough draw, including an opening six games against teams which all played finals in 2024 (before the traditional Anzac Day clash against Essendon). The Pies could well be playing catch up again.

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Breakout player

It’s fairly slim pickings here, especially because I’ve limited myself to only choosing from players who’ve already made their debut. Ed Allan impressed in Collingwood’s final game of 2024, a dead rubber against the Demons, racking up 21 disposals, a goal, and a coach’s vote. If he can put in similar displays in games that matter, then suddenly the horizon looks a little brighter.

Most important player

Nick Daicos. He’s the present and the future in one. Exquisitely skilled, superbly balanced, and consistently meets the moment. So long as he stays fit, he will be Collingwood’s best player – and one of the very best in the AFL – for many, many years.

Biggest question to answer

What if it doesn’t work? I genuinely understand why Collingwood have gone the way they have – they believe that their strategy maximises their chances of winning another Premiership in the next 10 years. That doesn’t mean it isn’t teeming with risk.

What success looks like

Collingwood have brought in a trio of mature-age players, let their elder champions play on, and once again largely ignored the draft. On paper, they’re better than in 2024 – and, if you’re very optimistic, better than 2023. But so is the rest of the competition. Given the risks they’ve taken, and the paucity of their youth, it looks like flag or bust.

In a nutshell

The Pies have taken out a mortgage on their future to squeeze another Premiership from the Pendlebury generation. It is a mighty risk. If it succeeds, their fans will laud their list management team and ignore the pain which might lay in store.

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Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Pies? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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