2025 AFL Season Previews: Carlton

Can this list – under this coach – win a flag?

My third preview asks how Carlton can go a few steps further.

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2024 ladder position: 8th (13 wins, 10 losses – eliminated at Elimination Final stage)

2024 best-and-fairest: Patrick Cripps

Senior coach: Michael Voss

Story of the season

Failure to meet sky-high expectations – but with an asterisk. After a first prelim appearance for almost a quarter of a century, and a stirring comeback win at the Gabba in the opening game of the season, it felt like many large, back-dwelling monkeys were being shrugged off blue backs. Just like 2023, Carlton went unbeaten in their first four games. Just like 2023, they were handed their first loss by Adelaide. And then, just like 2023, their season threatened to spiral out of control from there, with a string of disappointing results casting doubt on players and coaches alike. But there was one key difference between the two seasons, which would go on to ultimately define Carlton’s season – the length of its injury list. Sam Docherty did his knee, Adams Saad and Cerra popped their hamstrings, Sam Walsh wrenched his back. Injuries ended up costing the Blues 137 games to best-22 players, second in the AFL only to Richmond (where a Premiership was not the priority). Carlton got sucked into the doom loop of rushing players back from injury to take the place of other injured players, only to see the first group re-injured because they hadn’t rehabilitated for long enough. Although they toiled on, at one stage reeling off five straight wins, injuries and inconsistency cost them a legitimate shot at the flag. They lost seven of the last nine home & away games, and didn’t have the personnel or the form to put up a meaningful fight at the Gabba. As valid as the injury excuse was, the fact remains: Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Jacob Weitering won’t be around forever. In that context, 2024 was a missed opportunity for a team that believes it should be contending.

Summary of game style

Carlton’s strengths remain largely the same as they have for years – contested ball, and two excellent key forwards. And in large part, so are their weaknesses. The Blues excel at the coalface, but struggle to generate fluid ball movement and have a tendency to be exposed on defensive transition. Brawny, but perhaps a little plodding.

In an interview with Cal Twomey ahead of the 2024 season, published almost exactly a year before I’m writing this, head coach Michael Voss said he wanted his team to double down on its strength at the contest. Not a bad idea when you have Patrick Cripps and, in Sam Walsh, a player who looked poised to join his captain at the top step of the game. So it’s interesting, then, given those comments and the Blues’ innate strengths, to look at some key metrics across the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Here’s a table.

Oh, how I wish Substack let you just insert a table.

You’ve got to be careful interpreting numbers like these. We’re usually not talking about massive absolute differences – Carlton “only” conceded 12.7 points more from stoppages last season compared to 2023 – and player availability (or lack of it) was probably as relevant as any deliberate change of style. But the stats do tell a story. In 2024, Carlton became a worse contested team, but much better at punishing opposition turnovers. And they managed this despite maintaining their relative clearance numbers – while actually forcing relatively fewer turnovers!

Voss and his coaches, recognising the importance of generating scores from turnover, changed how the Blues set up around stoppages, often sacrificing a number at the contest to create a spare a kick behind the play. Personnel also played an important role. Tom De Koning, who assumed a more prominent role in Carlton’s midfield mix in 2024, is much better in transition than Marc Pittonet, while not being as defensively disciplined. Ditto someone like Sam Walsh who, despite missing Carlton’s first four games, attended significantly more stoppages than in 2023.

The end result was a more enterprising Blues side that was better at creating turnovers in dangerous areas of the field, but also bled more high-quality stoppage exits – the most painful example being when Sam Walsh was caught ball-watching with a couple of minutes to go against Collingwood in Round 8, allowing Nick Daicos to stream out and kick the winning goal. The Pies doubled the Blues’ scores from stoppages (44 to 22) in that game. In trying to address his team’s weaknesses, Michael Voss overcorrected. He will be searching for a more sustainable balance in 2025.

List changes

In: 

• Jagga Smith (2024 National Draft, pick #3)

• Harry O’Farrell (2024 National Draft, pick #40)

• Ben Camporeale (2024 National Draft, pick #43 – father/son)

• Lucas Camporeale (2024 National Draft, pick #54 – father/son)

• Harry Charleson (2024 Rookie Draft)

• Matt Duffy (Category B Rookie)

• Nick Haynes (free agent – Greater Western Sydney)

Out:

• Domanic Akuei (delisted)

• Jack Caroll (delisted)

• David Cuningham (delisted)

• Sam Durdin (delisted)

• Caleb Marchbank (delisted)

• Jack Martin (delisted)

• Alex Mirkov (delisted)

• Matt Kennedy (trade – Western Bulldogs)

• Matt Owies (trade – West Coast)

List profile

Number of top-10 draft picks: seven (T-7th)

Average age at Opening Round: 25 (6th)

Average number of games played: 74.4 (7th)

There’s an observation about the composition of Carlton’s list which has attained meme status. Here it is, in Simpsons form.

You hear it so often that you suspect that at least half of the people (especially non-Carlton fans) are just saying it because others have, not because they’ve delved particularly deep into the Blues’ list. Is it true? The bottom five players who played 15 or more games for Carlton last year were (in ascending order of player rating) Jordan Boyd, Ollie Hollands, Lachie Cowan, Brodie Kemp, and Lachie Fogarty. I don’t think any of those players are stars in waiting, but it doesn’t seem like an unusually poor group. Most are in the first half of their careers, and you could reasonably make the case that they’ll improve. There’s some truth in the broader point, though. Cripps, Curnow, Weitering, Walsh, McKay, and de Koning is a superb uppermost group. I think the more accurate criticism isn’t so much that the bottom part of Carlton’s list is poor (by definition, isn’t every club’s?), it’s the fact that the list had, and probably still has, obvious gaps. Who is Jacob Weitering’s defensive partner? Who provides overlap run and line breaking? Are there enough quality users by foot? Who supports Harry and Charlie at ground level?

On paper, Carlton’s draft and trade period have addressed at least some of those deficiencies. Nick Haynes will most likely slot straight into a defence that was often missing a second true key position defender (Mitch McGovern and Jack Silvagni, retooled as a defender throughout pre-season, could also feature). With the exception of Jagga Smith, most of the new draftees are unlikely to see much senior action this year but will add useful depth and should be ready to contribute just as the current generation begin to age out. The outgoings all make sense, too. Matt Kennedy was a fan favourite but wasn’t moving the needle. Replacing his minutes with Ben Camporeale, Cooper Lord and perhaps even Billy Wilson is a prudent decision. Matt Owies had a decent goal return but didn’t offer enough creativity with ball in hand.

Jagga Smith is by far the most intriguing addition. The livewire Oakleigh Chargers product will pull on the famous navy blue after a multi-party deal which ultimately sent West Coast’s natural Pick #3 to Carlton in exchange for Pick #12, Pick #14 and Matthew Owies. The move was met with disbelief (of the bad kind) from Eagles fans and (of the good kind) Blues fans alike. Reports from pre-season suggest Smith is already impressing and will likely play in Round 1. But the Blues paid a lot to get him. If this season doesn’t pan out, there won’t be much solace in the draft – at least until Cody Walker becomes eligible in 2026.

Line rankings

Defence: Average

Midfield: Elite

Forward: Above Average

Ruck: Above Average

The case for optimism

Carlton’s best players are among the very best in the AFL, and none are showing signs of decline. Patrick Cripps just recorded the highest Brownlow vote tally ever. Jacob Weitering finally got his All-Australian jacket. Curnow and McKay can win any game. If anything, Blues fans should feel confident that, in Tom de Koning (and perhaps Sam Walsh), they have more players who will, or at least can, join the ranks of the game’s elite. And in Jagga Smith, they should feel confident they have a great player for the future. Whatever the flaws with Carlton’s list, there’s no lack of top-end talent.

It’s not often a team with immediate designs on the pointy end of the ladder gets the chance to draft a kid like Smith. He appears to bring precisely what Carlton lack – pace, agility and skill on the outside. The high cost the Blues paid to get him suggests they think he could be the final piece of the jigsaw. Beyond Smith’s direct contributions (and we should still keep our expectations in check) in 2025, the injection of quality youth can have a rejuvenating effect on an entire list. An entire club, even. And Smith won’t be the only talented first-year player at Carlton. The Camporeale twins also impressed last year. There’s something to be said for good vibes.

Speaking of rejuvenation: injuries. The Blues were dragged down by them last year. It’s unlikely to be as bad this season. I’m not saying that because I have inside knowledge of why Andrew Russell was a bad Director of High Performance, or why Rob Inness will be a good one. I’m saying that because of statistics. Up to a certain point, the prevalence of injuries is essentially random (or at least normally distributed). That isn’t true in all cases: once you hit a critical threshold and start rushing back players before they’re ready, therefore increasing their chances of re-injury, you’re in trouble. But until then, assuming that a modern AFL high performance program is doing all the basics, it’s basically chance. Carlton had very bad luck last year. Nic Newman has already been ruled out for almost the whole season. But it’s still possible – likely, I’d say – for them to have a softer run this year.

The case for pessimism

Three things to say here. The first is that I remain unconvinced by Michael Voss’ ability to change the course of games where his side is up against it. The prime example from last season was the Round 17 clash against GWS. The Blues led by 39 points in the first quarter, and yet were virtually out of it by three-quarter time. That shouldn’t happen. Those middle two quarters were a condensed version of all of Carlton’s flaws in 2024 – leaking like a sieve from stoppages (70 points against from that source), aerially uncompetitive in defensive 50, and physically slow by foot. Voss stood on the sidelines looking increasingly perplexed as the Giants mowed down his side, yet couldn’t – didn’t – do anything. And injuries, for once, weren’t an excuse; virtually all of Carlton’s prime movers were on the field. Every team faces adversity and tactical challenges within games. But the teams that win flags have coaches that can solve those problems through more sophisticated means than calling for greater effort and determination.

The second cause for Blues-related blues is that, despite the positive moves made during the trade and draft period, there are still exploitable holes in the list. Will an ageing Nick Haynes, injury-prone Mitch McGovern or untried Jack Silvagni be an adequate partner to Jacob Weitering and shore up a defence that conceded the fourth-highest expected score per game in 2024? Will Jagga Smith provide the outside run and precise delivery by foot Carlton still desperately need? Will Jesse Motlop become the small forward the Blues need him to be? I’m not necessarily saying the answer to these questions is “no”. I’m saying that teams in Premiership contention – which Carlton believe they are – don’t often have so many unresolved personnel-related questions (and probably aren’t relying on a first-year player to carry such a heavy load).

The third and final cause for pessimism, closely intertwined with the one I just mentioned, is that same, haunting spectre: injuries. Or, to be specific, one injury in particular. A new season hasn’t necessarily turned the club’s fortunes around. Nic Newman has been ruled out for virtually the whole season with a ruptured patella tendon. He’s a really underrated cog in not only Carlton’s backline but also their ball movement scheme, because he offers something almost no other player on Carlton’s list does: reliable, high-threat kicking from the back half. This chart, created by data scientist Liam Crowhurst, ranked the best kicks in the AFL last year along two separate axes, threat and retention. They’re basically both what they sound like. Retention is how likely a kick is to be retained by a teammate, and threat measures how likely a kick is to result in a scoring shot later in the possession chain. Newman is by far Carlton’s most threatening kick. McGovern offers precision without accumulation and Saad offers run, but neither provides the same ability to begin productive possession chains from deep defensive positions (and lockdown ability) that Newman does. It’s a cruel blow for a player that didn’t enter the AFL until he was 22, and a blow for a side that already needed to improve its corridor use and ability to generate scores from the back half.

There has been and will continue to be lots of chat this season about the extent to which Collingwood are “all-in” to win the flag this year (sorry, Carlton fans, for mentioning the old enemy in your preview). But I think the extent to which the Blues have traded away future growth for current success has flown under the radar. Don’t get me wrong. It’s the right thing to do. When you have players of the quality of Cripps, Curnow, and Weitering, you need to do everything possible to deliver a flag. But that doesn’t mean it’s without risks.

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Breakout player

As a South Australian who’s fairly recently become enough of a tragic to follow the draft, I’ve long been intrigued by Ashton Moir. The rangy half-forward showed enough in his underage year to be spoken of as a possible top-10 pick, before a mediocre 2023 meant he slid all the way to the final pick of the first night. But Carlton feels like the right fit for him – good forwards to learn from, a spot if he’s good enough to claim it, and a list that’s mature enough to not need him to be a success right away. Moir showed enough in his first two games to make me think we’ll see more this year.

Most important player

It’s tempting to be a little bit edgy here and say that actually Carlton’s most important player is Jacob Weitering or one of the tall forwards. But in this case, the obvious answer is the correct one. There’s no one, on any list, who can do quite what Patrick Cripps does. In 2024, he recorded career highs in disposals, inside 50s, and metres gained on his way to a fifth club best & fairest and a well-deserved second Brownlow. He is Carlton’s conductor, and a fair chunk of its orchestra, too.

Biggest question to answer

Is there a flag in this Blues list? Surprisingly, for such an experienced list and scrutinised club, I’m not sure we actually know yet. It feels like they played at something like their peak for about one full season. Unfortunately for Blues fans, that form straddled two seasons (2023 and 2024) and was arguably inflated by some – in hindsight, unsustainable – absurdly efficient scoring from stoppages and a great run of close wins. They need to build on more sustainable foundations.

What success looks like

Better luck with injuries, a game plan that stacks up against the competition’s most dynamic sides, and a deep run in September. It’s a high bar. But Carlton’s leaders and fans should expect nothing less. They’ve been telling us that they’re coming for a long time now. Time to show it.

In a nutshell

An injury crisis prevented Carlton from showing us that the form they showed in the back half of 2023 wasn’t a fluke. As we mark 30 years since the Blues’ last flag, there remain unanswered questions about the distribution of quality across its list, and the tactical acumen of the man running the show.

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Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Blues? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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