2024 AFL Season Previews: Western Bulldogs
Can Luke Beveridge steer the Dogs back into the top eight?
The Western Bulldogs somehow conspired to miss finals last year. Was it a blip, or a sign of things to come?
2023 ladder position: 9th (12 wins, 11 losses)
2023 best-and-fairest: Marcus Bontempelli
Senior coach: Luke Beveridge
Story of the season
Each team will play approximately 2,760 minutes (at least) of Australian football in the AFL Home & Away season. Within these minutes, they will encounter success and failure. Hardship and triumph. Ecstasy and desolation. It’s very hard, perhaps utterly futile, to boil down any team’s season to a single storyline or moment. Except for the Western Bulldogs in 2023. The extraordinary sight of their ruckman, Tim English, taking the kick-in with just 47 seconds left in a must-win game, became the symbol of the Dogs’ season. Complacency. Confusion. Malaise. A team studded with elite talent, just two years removed from making a grand final, with some of the best players in the game, managed to miss the finals. English was named the All-Australian ruckman on the penultimate day of August. Neither he nor any of his teammates were there in September.
Summary of game style
Just like that rug store that remains stubbornly, mystifyingly open, the Dogs’ secret can be described in three words – clearance, clearance, clearance. They are the #1 team in the AFL for stoppage clearances. It’s hardly a surprise: English, Bontempelli, Liberatore, Macrae and Treloar are a tough group to beat. Clearance strength translated to territory dominance: the Dogs were fourth in the AFL for inside 50 differential, and the only teams ahead of them all finished in the top four.
There’s a case to be made, however, that the Dogs’ stoppage strength comes at the expense of their attacking game. Last year, the Dogs were 16th for rebound 50s, 16th for contested marks, and ninth for score launches (scoring chains launched by an intercept possession, free kick, hitout-to-advantage or clearance). It’s evidence of something which most Dogs fans could easily tell you: one of the most talented teams in the AFL was hindered by their lack of imagination and coherent attacking structures. Instead of running the ball, too often the Dogs’ midfielders blazed away from deep positions to set defences, hoping that Aaron Naughton or Jamarra Ugle-Hagan could clunk a mark. It worked well enough, some of the time. But not as often as they needed it to.
List changes
In:
Ryley Sanders (2023 National Draft, pick #6)
Jordan Croft (2023 National Draft, pick #15)
Joel Freijah (2023 National Draft, pick #45)
Lachlan Smith (2023 National Draft, pick #47)
Aiden O’Driscoll (2023 National Draft, pick #55)
James Harmes (traded from Melbourne)
Nick Coffield (traded from St. Kilda)
Lachie Bramble (Supplemental Selection Period)
Out:
Jordon Sweet (traded to Port Adelaide)
Hayden Crozier (delisted)
Mitch Hannan (delisted)
Robbie McComb (delisted)
Toby McLean (delisted)
Tim O’Brien (delisted)
Cody Raak (delisted)
Roarke Smith (delisted)
Josh Bruce (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: eight (fifth-most)
Average age at Opening Round: 24.8 (sixth-oldest)
Average number of games played: 76.3 (sixth-most)
Looking at the games played graph, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the Bulldogs had one of the younger lists in the AFL. But they’re actually the sixth-oldest, both in terms of age and games played. And although more than half of the players on their list have played fewer than 50 games, it’s not because they’re all young. Sometimes it’s because they’ve not been able to get on the park. Or sometimes it’s because they’ve not yet found their feet at AFL level. For every Ryley Sanders, there’s an Oskar Baker. The most important line is right at the bottom: Bontempelli, Macrae, Treloar, Liberatore. There’s 118 years and 893 senior games between them. Experience is vital. But that’s a lot of miles on the clock for guys who are still expected to shoulder most of the burden.
Line rankings
Defence: Average
Midfield: Elite
Forwards: Above Average
Ruck: Elite
The case for optimism
They’ve got Marcus Bontempelli. I mean, I’m going to write more in this section, but that honestly covers about half of it. This isn’t the NBA, where one superstar can immediately take a team from middling to champions. But (expert analysis warning) having good players is good. And although none of his teammates are quite on his level, some of them are very good indeed: English, Liberatore, Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Cody Weightman among others.
The shock of missing finals has jolted a complacent club into the most radical changes you can make short of sacking the head coach. Days after their season ended, the club hierarchy announced a sweeping review of the football department, which culminated in the creation of a new General Manager of Football Operations role and implementing “a clearer demarcation of reporting lines.” Plus, as shocking as last season felt, the Dogs have been here before under Beveridge. It’s easy to forget – and some non-Dogs fans may well have – but they actually missed the finals in the two years after winning the Premiership in 2016. By that standard, finishing eighth and then ninth in the two years following the 2021 grand final is actually an improvement. Beveridge revived the team’s fortunes then. Perhaps he’s the man to do it again.
Seven delistings suggests the club agrees with the outside view that there was too much deadwood on the list. The recruitment of the exciting Tasmanian Ryley Sanders with the #6 draft pick suggests that Beveridge and his assistants also agree that the team lacked outside run. The emergence of some promising young key defenders and the likely continued improvement of Ugle-Hagan means that, if everyone else maintains a steady performance level, the Dogs should improve. And the list is still packed with enough talent that the Dogs’ floor should still be quite high. With 17 of their 23 games being played in Victoria, the Dogs should be winning a minimum of 10 games. Add a soft draw and some better luck (last year, the Dogs lost six of seven games decided by two goals or fewer), and 10 wins could easily become 14, a home final, and September in Victoria.
The case for pessimism
The question stalking the minds of every Dogs fan is, “what if this is our level now?” What if, despite having arguably the best player in the AFL still in his peak years, they’re now scrapping to make up the numbers in the top eight rather than genuinely competing at the top end? It’s a disquieting thought.
Ranking senior coaches is a tough business in a sport where seasons can be determined by the bounce of a cigar-shaped ball. But if you were to list them in order of how disillusioned the club’s supporters are about them, Luke Beveridge would be in the top two or three. Spend time in any Bulldogs online space and you’ll read the same complaints over and over: too much tinkering with selections, conceding long runs of scores (not helped by a stubborn inability to apply pressure), and a predictable game plan. Those all read like coaching issues. And despite some new assistant coaches, Beveridge is still top dog when the siren sounds. The review of the football department probably augurs well for Bulldogs’ fortunes in the medium term (although reports of tension between Beveridge and Head of Football, Chris Grant, aren’t promising). But in the short term – a.k.a. the rest of Bontempelli’s career – he needs a more detailed plan for success. Because in today’s AFL, you need a better strategy than “have better players.” The problem, beyond doubts if Beveridge is the man for the job, is that the Dogs’ strengths lend themselves to the style of football they already play. They’ve got an excellent ruck, great midfielders, and good marking forwards. Tap-clearance-kick-mark-goal is an obvious strategy. But that’s precisely the problem – it’s the obvious, predictable strategy. I’m sceptical that doing what they already do, but better, is the pathway to success.
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Breakout player
If I allowed players who’d already made their debut, then I’d definitely be writing down Ryley Sanders’ name here. Based on the evidence of the Dogs’ pre-season games, he already looks like he belongs at AFL level – and like he could add the run and creativity the Dogs have lacked. Assuming his body allows him to, he will play more than 20 games this season. But, as already explained, he’s ineligible. So instead, I’m going to opt for Sam Darcy. The son of Dogs legend Luke has intermittently shown AFL qualities without quite yet stringing it together. That’s hardly a surprise – key position players generally need a little longer to grow into their bodies. He’ll probably start the year in the VFL, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him take Rory Lobb’s spot and string some impressive games together.
Most important player
In my first draft of this preview, I tried to employ some convoluted logic about how Marcus Bontempelli isn’t actually the Bulldogs’ most important player because he’s brilliant every week. Then I re-read it, realised that was dumb, and came to my senses. Bontempelli is the fulcrum. The leader. The reference point. The textbook modern midfielder. He wins clearances, kicks it inside 50, lays tackles, and kicks goals. If he had a clone playing alongside him, the Bulldogs would probably be the best team in the AFL.
Biggest question to answer
Can Beveridge fix the Dogs’ chronic issues? The talent is there. The big-game experience is there. The club hierarchy have backed him. The best way to repay the faith is by picking a more predictable team, a less predictable gameplan, and, ultimately, delivering more wins.
What success looks like
Simple – winning a final. Just making them would probably be a below-par result considering the faith the Dogs’ hierarchy have placed in Luke Beveridge. For that to happen, the elite on-ballers need to maintain their performance level, young key position players need to take one or two steps forward, and the Dogs need to be braver and more composed with ball in hand.
In a nutshell
The Bulldogs have arguably the competition’s best player and a handful of very good ones. This is the season where we’ll find out if the Bontempelli generation has one more flag tilt left in them, or if the Dogs are drifting towards the vortex of midtable mediocrity.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Dogs? Share your thoughts in the comments.