2024 AFL Season Previews: Richmond
Can a new coach get the Tigers back into the finals?
I’m kicking off my 2024 season previews by looking at the eight teams competing in Opening Round. It’s time to see how things are going at Tigerland.
2023 ladder position: 13th (10 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw)
2023 best-and-fairest: Tim Taranto
Senior coach: Adem Yze
Story of the season
In 2023, football’s most unlikely dynasty ended – not with a bang, but a whimper. Damien Hardwick shocked the football world when he announced he was stepping down after three Premierships, 14 seasons, and 307 games in charge. Andrew McQualter, an assistant under Hardwick, was appointed caretaker coach for the remainder of the 2023 season. He staked a reasonable case for the top job, winning seven of his 13 games in charge. But it wasn’t enough – either for Richmond, or for him. The Tigers missed out on finals, and McQualter was overlooked for the senior coaching role. In a neat twist of fate, he’s essentially swapped roles with his successor, the former Melbourne assistant coach (and player) Adem Yze. Oh, and at the end of the season, more than 850 games’ worth of experience, including two bonafide club legends in Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt, pulled up stumps. It’s the end of an era at Tigerland.
Summary of game style
Richmond are one of just two clubs to begin the 2024 season with a new senior coach. The other is Gold Coast. Of course, one man bestrides the two: Damien Hardwick. Everyone knows what style of football his Richmond sides employed: frenetic, territorial, and turnover-heavy. But Hardwick isn’t around anymore. And we don’t have much data to tell us what Yze will do. All we have so far is the match simulation they played against his old club, whispers from pre-season, and what he’s said publicly.
On the evidence of the match sim, Yze appears to want the Tigers to both kick the ball and use the corridor more often. It didn’t always look especially smooth, and there’s a fair chance it won’t all season. In terms of personnel, Yze has apparently been training with a main midfield rotation of Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper, Dion Prestia and Dustin Martin. Shai Bolton is set to spend most of his time this season up forward, with only occasional centre bounce attendances. And Noah Balta is set to become a permanent forward next to Tom Lynch. Beyond that, Yze has talked about his desire to “reassert team defence”, in recognition of declining standards.
In terms of what he’s said in public, Yze has made it clear he won’t allow himself to get mired in romantic thinking about Richmond’s past glories, specifically citing Hawthorn as an example of a post-dynasty team that set its development back by trying to top up and go again one too many times. He even ordered a 2017 Premiership photo to be taken down. Clearly, he’s determined to establish a new identity and a new era, rather than following in Hardwick’s footsteps.
List changes
In:
Kane McAuliffe (2023 National Draft, pick #40)
Liam Fawcett (2023 National Draft, pick #43)
Oliver Hayes-Brown (2023 Rookie Draft)
Jacob Koschitzke (traded from Hawthorn)
Sam Naismith (free agent)
Mykelti Lefau (Supplemental Selection Period)
Out:
Ivan Soldo (traded to Port Adelaide)
Bigoa Nyuon (traded to North Melbourne)
Kaelan Bradtke (delisted)
Jack Riewoldt (retired)
Jason Castagna (retired)
Trent Cotchin (retired)
Robbie Tarrant (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: six (tied for eighth-most)
Average age at Opening Round: 24.9 (fourth-oldest)
Average number of games played: 71.1 (eighth-most)
You can be young and good. (That’s the best thing to be.) You can be old and good. (That’s what usually happens.) You can be young and bad. (Rebuild!) But the worst thing to be is old and bad. And that’s where the Tigers seem to be heading. They’ve got the fourth-oldest list in the league. Of the top 10 in their Best & Fairest, the youngest was 24 year-old Noah Balta. Seven Tigers are 30 or older. Probably all but one of them is a first 18 player when fit. It’s a tough situation for a club to be in – and normally portends a rebuild.
Understandably, Yze and the Richmond hierarchy will want to see how his players adjust to a new style before committing to a rebuild. Besides, it’s only a year since the club gave up two first-round picks for Tim Taranto.
Line rankings
Defence: Above Average
Midfield: Above Average
Forward: Average
Ruck: Above Average
The case for optimism
Simple – they’ve won three Premierships in the last seven years. If I supported a team with that kind of success, I’d just react to a defeat by pulling up highlights of a Grand Final win. Beyond the ego soothing, recent success provides a new coach with an incredibly valuable commodity: time.
Consider the situation Yze is walking into compared with the predicament facing coaches like Michael Voss at Carlton or Brad Scott at Essendon. The pressure at the Melbourne Megaclubs is intense. If you haven’t tasted success in a long time – and especially if your fiercest rivals have – then hope can give way to anger very quickly. Yze won’t have that problem. He starts life as an AFL coach with the maximum amount of political capital. He’ll still have a lot on his plate. But a couple of poor seasons won’t place his job in jeopardy.
The other off-field cause for optimism is that, although Richmond’s list is showing the effects of age and sustained success, their players’ contracts are structured in such a way that provides lots of room for manoeuvre. Just seven senior-listed Tigers have contracts to 2026 or beyond, and of that group, most if not all should still be making significant contributions. Being old and bad isn’t an ideal state of affairs. But doing it with a coach that has credit in the bank, lots of flexibility to mould the list as he sees fit, and the maximum amount of time to see what the kids can do is certainly cause for optimism.
On the field, the best case for near-term optimism is the return of Tom Lynch from his nasty broken foot. A fit and firing Lynch next to Dustin Martin (whose form in 2023 was good enough to be named in the extended All-Australian squad), Shai Bolton and Tim Taranto is still an excellent top four, regardless of the hole elsewhere.
The case for pessimism
As I’ve discussed above, the Tigers’ list doesn’t look to be in great shape. As Antonio Gramsci might have said had he been a footy fan, the crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old stars are nearing retirement and the kids haven’t shown much yet; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.
Among the young players who’ve already debuted, it’s hard to see many obvious future stars. Josh Gibcus will be a welcome addition to the backline after a year out with persistent hamstring troubles. Samson Ryan and Noah Cumberland have shown some nice things. Tylar Young was voted the club’s best first-year player. But, with the exception of Gibcus, none of them are that young. I’m not saying every young player needs to be Nick Daicos or Errol Gulden. But (expert analysis warning) having promising young players is great both because they improve the team’s performance level and because their development gives supporters something to enjoy in lean times. Tigers fans probably don’t need a whole lot of solace given recent successes, but it’s still nice to have confidence that the future looks bright.
Adem Yze arrives with lots of goodwill. But the situation he’s inherited looks a tough one for a first-year coach. Adam Kingsley performed phenomenally in his first year at Greater Western Sydney. But his brief was quite different: to revive an immensely talented list that had gone stale under the previous coach. Yze, on the other hand, faces the task of integrating a new game plan while renovating an ageing list and, over time, replacing club legends. It will be a tough job. Perhaps it’s unwise to make such a bold assertion so early on, but despite the sprinkling of star quality still on their list, I don’t really see a world where the Tigers make the finals in 2024. There are simply too many other teams ahead of them in the queue.
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Breakout player
There are a few intriguing options here. Noah Cumberland showed promise in the back half of 2022 but couldn’t push on last year. Judson Clarke is a quick half-forward with a penetrating left-foot kick. But I suspect Tigers fans will be most excited to see what Josh Gibcus can do this year. The young key defender missed all of last season with persistent hamstring issues. But if he can get himself right, his run and athleticism will make him a tough matchup for opposition third tall forwards.
Most important player
The magnificent Shai Bolton. He provides heaps of speed, dynamism and creativity to a team that otherwise lacks it. All indications so far are that Yze intends to use him mainly as a forward this year. You can see the logic: after all, Bolton kicked 43 goals in 2022. But the beauty of Bolton is you can put him almost anywhere: in 2023, he spent more time in the middle and even in the defensive half, setting up Richmond scoring chains. Players like Bolton – quick, lavishly skilled, indigenous – often get lumped with the “mercurial” tag. But that does him a disservice. He has emerged as a consistent performer and a true star of the competition.
Biggest question to answer
What kind of coach will Adem Yze be? Under Hardwick, you knew what you were getting. McQualter, who served as an assistant coach under Hardwick, opted for continuity over change. But Yze has no affiliation with the club. He should be ideally placed to make decisions unclouded by emotion. His first season will chart the Tigers’ course for the rest of the decade.
What success looks like
Honestly, if I were a Richmond fan, I’d probably prefer to not make finals in 2024. Because if they do, it’s likely that they’ll have been carried there by their older stars. While the Tigers’ older players have all written themselves into club folklore, they represent the past more than the future. Instead, I’d like to see the kids get better, the old guys phased out with the dignity and gratitude they deserve, and a clear plan from a first-year coach.
In a nutshell
Richmond are a club between eras – definitively out of Premiership contention, but not yet definitively committed to a rebuild. There will be moments of nostalgia for the past and excitement for the future. But overall, it’ll probably be a tough season.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Tigers? Share your thoughts in the comments.