2024 AFL Season Previews: Melbourne
Can the Demons shake off a horror pre-season to stay near the top?
I’m kicking off my 2024 season previews by looking at the eight teams competing in Opening Round. To begin, a look at one of the teams playing in the very first game: Melbourne.
2023 ladder position: 4th (16 wins, 7 losses – eliminated at semi-final stage)
2023 best-and-fairest: Christian Petracca
Senior coach: Simon Goodwin
Story of the season
Once again, August expectation soured into September disappointment. After a narrow loss to Greater Western Sydney in Round 16, the Dees came home with a wet sail, winning eight out of their last nine (with the sole defeat – to Carlton – being rather contentious). Then it went bad. Despite being comfortably the better team, and suffering the shock of seeing Angus Brayshaw get knocked out by Brayden Maynard, they lost the qualifying final to Collingwood. The following week, despite once again being comfortably the better team, they lost to Carlton. Suddenly the team that looked like a good bet to become the next dynasty after winning the Premiership in 2021 had instead become the first in the current finals system to be knocked out in straight sets in consecutive years. It all felt a bit like the end of the Roman Empire.
Summary of game style
Melbourne under Simon Goodwin play one of the most recognisable brands of football in the AFL: muscular contested football with a high defensive press. Melbourne excel at winning the ball in dispute (they were #1 for ground ball gets in 2023), shovelling it forward, and locking it inside their forward 50 (#1 for inside 50s). They’ll push their two key defenders, Steven May and Jake Lever, up past the centre circle to utilise their excellent intercept marking and effective disposal. What the approach might lack in craft and precision, it makes up for in volume and pressure. At their best, Melbourne suffocate their opponents and exploit their fatigue by scoring in massive, overwhelming bursts.
List changes
In:
Caleb Windsor (2023 National Draft, pick #7)
Koltyn Tholstrup (2023 National Draft, pick #13)
Kynan Brown (2023 Rookie Draft, father-son)
Shane McAdam (traded from Adelaide)
Jack Billings (traded from St. Kilda)
Tom Fullarton (traded from Brisbane)
Marty Hore (Supplemental Selection Period)
Out:
Brodie Grundy (traded to Sydney)
James Harmes (traded to Western Bulldogs)
James Jordon (free agency – Sydney)
Deakyn Smith (delisted)
Kye Turner (delisted)
Michael Hibberd (retired)
Luke Dunstan (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: nine (fourth-most)
Average age at Opening Round: 25.1 (third-oldest)
Average number of games played: 84.9 (third-most)
Melbourne have the third-oldest and third-most experienced list in the AFL. That’s hardly a surprise – they’ve been in the premiership window for years now. But they’ve done a good job at ensuring that they have a high-performing core group that are either still in or not yet in their peak years. Christian Petracca, Jake Lever, Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver, Bayley Fritsch, Christian Salem and Harrison Petty are all between 24 and 29. Then there’s an emerging crop of 20-23 year-old players like Trent Rivers, Kysaiah Pickett and Judd McVee who have established themselves in the first team. The two biggest question marks are the ones hovering over Max Gawn and Steven May. They’re both still absolutely vital to how the Demons play. And they’re both 32.
Line rankings
Defence: Elite
Midfield: Elite
Forward: Average
Ruck: Elite
The case for optimism
Despite 2023 ultimately leaving a sour taste in the mouth, Melbourne… really weren’t far off winning the flag. They’re still a very good team. Everything except the forward line is still working well. They were #1 in the AFL for inside 50s and contested possessions. Only St. Kilda conceded fewer points. They were the better team in both of their games against Collingwood.
The Melbourne hierarchy have acted quickly to correct last season’s mistakes. They’ve moved on from the failed Brodie Grundy experiment. Drafting Caleb Windsor and bringing in Koltyn Tholstrup and Shane McAdam indicates that the club recognises that both their forward-line efficiency and their delivery into the forward line need to improve. The core of the team that won the flag in 2021 is still good enough, and only Max Gawn and Steven May are at the age where you wouldn’t be surprised to see a decline. Young players like Kysaiah Pickett, Jacob van Rooyen, Judd McVee and Trent Rivers should still improve.
Standards are different these days at Melbourne. Failure is now measured by not winning the Grand Final rather than the dark days of the Bailey/Neeld era. It’s frustrating to feel like you might be squandering a potential dynasty. But winning a Premiership is, as all the sages say, bloody hard. The Dees aren’t a perfect team. But their flaws are fixable. The difference between them losing two tight finals (to red-hot teams) and winning another flag is pretty small.
A late edit, after watching their match simulation against Richmond last night: Melbourne seem to have invested lots of time in improving their ball movement. It was quick and decisive – a far cry from what Dees fans had to put up with for much of 2023. Caleb Windsor, in particular, showed impressive speed and delivery inside forward 50. It’s only a practice match. If the players aren’t sufficiently drilled, there will be a reversion to type when the whips get cracking. But it’s a positive start.
The case for pessimism
Melbourne have been up to their ears in the premiership race for years. They made a preliminary final in 2018 with the same core that won them the flag in 2021. But since lifting the cup in Perth, they haven’t even won a final. And, for the first time since then, there are reasons to believe they might have regressed.
I’ll start with the on-field. There just isn’t much evidence that Simon Goodwin has fixed the forward line. If anything, it’s gotten worse. The Dees were second for scoring shots per inside 50 in 2021, the year they won the flag. Last year they were 15th – and, as a result, they lost games they shouldn’t have. Goodwin tried Ben Brown. He tried Brodie Grundy. He tried Tom McDonald. He tried Harrison Petty. He tried Joel Smith. With the exception of Petty, who kicked six goals against Richmond and then suffered a bad foot injury, none of them really looked up to it. Melbourne have good forwards. Kysaiah Pickett and Bayley Fritsch would improve most teams, Jacob van Rooyen has shown promising glimpses, and Petty is a good contested mark and a good kick. On paper, Shane McAdam and Jack Billings look like astute additions. But personnel was only part of the problem. Time and time again last year, the Dees midfield bombed the ball deep or took low-percentage shots on goal instead of finding a forward target. Until Goodwin improves the structure and the quality of delivery inside 50, the efficiency problems that plagued them all year will persist.
And now, the second cause for pessimism: the vibes. They are… not great. Teams can win flags when the vibes are bad! (Alastair Clarkson is proof of that.) But there seems to be an emerging consensus that excellent teams can win despite the vibes being bad. If you’re just very good, it's very tough to beat that handicap. Where to even begin? There’s clearly been something going on with Clayton Oliver. I won’t speculate on why he stepped away from football – the most important thing is that he did. The latest is that he’s back at training and even featured in a secondary match simulation against Richmond. But it might be a while until he’s physically and mentally fit enough to play AFL. We just don’t really know. Joel Smith’s suspension for a positive drug test has now escalated into an allegation of drug trafficking. Max Gawn claiming there’s no drug culture at Melbourne has the slight air of “raises a lot of questions already answered by my shirt”. Harrison Petty didn’t sound particularly enthused at being held to his contract when he was interviewed on a golf course (while playing a round with two Crows players). Late last year, Melbourne chief executive Gary Pert said the club culture was the best he’d seen in 40 years. That was hard to believe at the time. It looks downright comical now.
A late addition to this section: the sad forced retirement of Angus Brayshaw due to repeated concussions. It’s undoubtedly the right decision for his own wellbeing. But it will force Goodwin to reshuffle his main midfield rotations. The AFL has a real problem on its hands, and I’m not convinced it’s ready for what is coming in future years. I encourage you to read Brayshaw’s letter reflecting on his retirement.
Breakout player
Jacob van Rooyen. Dees fans were clamouring for him to be in the senior side since as far back as late 2022. When he did finally debut, he looked like he belonged. The West Australian key forward has a good pair of hands and kicks straight. Even if he doesn’t mark it, he does a good job of bringing the ball down to the ground for the likes of Kysaiah Pickett. A large part of Melbourne’s forward line improving is predicated on van Rooyen’s continued development.
Most important player
It’s still Max Gawn. Melbourne’s captain does it all. He taps the ball down to his teammates. He’s a gun at either end of the ground. And he’s an inspirational leader that’s guided the Demons through their most successful period in half a century. But he’s 32 now. Last season, he had fewer kicks, marks and hitouts, and kicked fewer goals than in 2022. Was it the distracting presence of Brodie Grundy? Was it the lingering effects of the early-season knee injury? Or was it the first sign of this mighty competitor slowing down? The answer will go a long way to determining Melbourne’s fortunes in 2024.
Biggest question to answer
Can Melbourne stay near the top? If they do, it’ll be by doing things slightly different than in the past. It’s unlikely they’ll have Clayton Oliver at their best all season. Premiership stalwarts like Gawn and May are a year closer to the end. The Dees’ defensive and clearance dominance might wane. But some good additions to the forward line, and a focus on drafting players with speed and foot skills, should add some much-needed potency up forward. The wildcard is the on-field impact of the widely reported off-field issues.
What success looks like
Winning a Premiership used to be enough. These days, all the cool kids are starting dynasties. There’s definitely a feeling among some pundits and many Dees fans that a list of this calibre delivering only one Premiership (and in Perth, no less!) would count as a disappointment. I’m not necessarily saying Melbourne need to win the flag in 2024. But how about winning a final?
In a nutshell
Melbourne are good enough to win another premiership. They should have made the preliminary final last year. But an ageing core and a difficult pre-season means the range of possible outcomes for their season feels wider than ever.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Dees? Share your thoughts in the comments.