2024 AFL Season Previews: Hawthorn
Can the Hawks continue the positive trajectory of their rebuild?
As we enter the back half of the season previews, I look at what Sam Mitchell and his happy team at Hawthorn have been up to.
2023 ladder position: 16th (7 wins, 16 losses)
2023 best-and-fairest: Will Day
Senior coach: Sam Mitchell
Story of the season
Progress on the field, uncomfortable amounts of controversy off it. The early part of Hawthorn’s season was dominated by the inquiry instigated by champion forward Cyril Rioli’s allegation that he and other indigenous players were the victims of racist incidents during their time at the club. Although the AFL ultimately ruled the club had no case to answer, the fallout lingered. A slow start on the field compounded the ill feeling.
Then Sam Mitchell moved some magnets around his whiteboard. His tweaks to the Hawks’ style of play (more details to follow in the next section) improved results and performances. After Round 10, Hawthorn won six of their 14 games, including two impressive wins against the teams that would end up squaring off in the Grand Final. Over that same time period, they were ninth for quarters won. That improvement, together with the emergence of some future stars, vindicated Mitchell’s decision to once again make deep cuts to the list over the summer. Hawthorn didn’t make finals – they weren’t even close. But they underlined their credentials as a side, if not necessarily always a club, travelling in the right direction.
Summary of game style
Sam Mitchell played a trick on us. In his first year in charge, and even in the early stages of the 2023 season, there was nothing unusual or even especially interesting about how the Hawks set up or chose to move the ball. Then, everything changed. The Hawks started handballing – and basically never stopped. They became the #1 ranked handball team, both in terms of sheer aggregate numbers and kick:handball ratio.
Quick, handball-heavy styles have emerged as a popular way to dismantle opposition defensive zones. But Mitchell did something very interesting: he also turned Hawthorn into a side that took a heap of uncontested marks. In the final five weeks of the season, the Hawks were ranked #1 for both handballs and marks – a very unusual combination. They could go quick or slow, depending on what the situation required. It might not have always worked – hardly a surprise given the inexperience of both coach and players – but it was an intriguing sign of things to come, both for Mitchell and his Hawks.
List changes
In:
Nick Watson (2023 National Draft, pick #5)
Will McCabe (2023 National Draft, pick #19 – father-son)
Bodie Ryan (2023 National Draft, pick #46)
Calsher Dear (2023 National Draft, pick #55 – father-son)
Mabior Chol (traded from Gold Coast)
Jack Ginnivan (traded from Collingwood)
Jack Gunston (traded from Brisbane)
Massimo D’Ambrosio (traded from Essendon)
Ethan Phillips (Supplemental Selection Period)
Out:
Jacob Koschitzke (traded to Richmond)
Tyler Brockman (traded to West Coast)
Brandon Ryan (traded to Brisbane)
Lachie Bramble (delisted)
Fergus Greene (delisted)
Emerson Jeka (delisted)
Josh Morris (delisted)
Fionn O’Hara (delisted)
Ned Long (delisted)
Max Lynch (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: six (eighth-most)
Average age at Opening Round: 23.5 (second-youngest)
Average number of games played: 59.6 (third-fewest)
One year after pushing 1,118 games of experience out the door, Sam Mitchell and his list management staff swung the axe once again. 10 players left the club, while nine joined. Strikingly, not a single one of the incoming players was a midfielder. Mitchell is clearly content with what he has there.
Instead, summer recruitment focused on improving a forward line which generated the second-fewest scores per inside 50 entry last season. Mabior Chol will line up alongside Mitch Lewis, Luke Breust and the returning Jack Gunston will occupy medium-sized defenders, Dylan Moore and #5 draft pick Nick Watson will match up on opposition smalls, and Jack Ginnivan can probably play on either. Elsewhere, two father-son selections in Will McCabe and Calsher Dear should bolster the Hawks’ key position stocks (if not this year, then in future) while Massimo D’Ambrosio will provide additional run and quality ball use, either in defence or on a wing. Just as it was last season, the biggest question will be how Hawthorn’s defensive unit holds up. Two years into his coaching career, Sam Mitchell has transformed one of the AFL’s oldest lists into one of its youngest. There are still gaps – but Hawthorn are brimming with talent and hunger.
Line rankings
Defence: Average
Midfield: Elite
Forwards: Average
Ruck: Average
The case for optimism
There’s plenty for Hawks fans to be optimistic about – provided their expectations are well-calibrated to their team’s current ability. What do I mean by that? I don’t think Hawthorn will play finals in 2024. But I also think they’re making decisions that will enable them to play a lot of finals from 2026 onwards.
Decisions like the list cull are beginning to bear fruit on-field. Since the second half of last season, the Hawks have been heading in the right direction. They beat the two Grand Finalists and the Western Bulldogs, while also running good sides like Greater Western Sydney (twice) and Adelaide close. Mitchell has implemented an ultra-high possession, handball-first style that can cut through unprepared opposition defensive zones. Over the whole year, the Hawks ranked #1 for possession differential and tied with Brisbane for top spot in centre clearance differential. Rather than sinking because of a “lack of leaders”, as many pundits were worried about, the baby Hawks learned to swim.
But ultimately, the real legacy of 2023 will be the emergence of a group of players who will figure prominently in the club’s next period of success. Will Day and Jai Newcombe are the obvious ones. But players like Josh Weddle, Conor Nash and Dylan Moore aren’t far behind. It’s a credit to Hawthorn’s recruitment department. As everyone knows by now, Newcombe was picked up in the Mid-Season Draft. Nash was an Irish punt. Mitch Lewis, the club’s best forward, was pick #76 in the 2016 draft. Turning low-value picks into high-value players is both highly predictive of success and the result of effective work behind the scenes.
Something I wrote about in both the Geelong and Sydney previews is that those clubs’ fans are entitled to feel optimistic because recent history suggests the people in charge know what they’re doing (at least in terms of building winning football teams). Hawthorn belong in the same bracket by virtue of their ability to make difficult decisions that ultimately increase their chances of winning Premierships. Most AFL clubs wouldn’t have paid off the final year of their four-time Premiership winning coach’s contract to elevate a novice coach (albeit one who’s also a legendary former player). Most AFL clubs probably would have baulked at that novice coach’s list management decisions just a year into the job. Hawthorn, however, stuck fast. And although they’re not quite finals-ready yet, they’re already in a position where fans are seeing the dividends of those decisions.
The case for pessimism
Long term, the picture looks bright at Hawthorn. In the short term, the prospects aren’t quite so luminous. The main reason is that a clutch of unfortunate injuries has further depleted their already thin key defensive stocks. James Blanck, who was set to line up at full-back, will instead miss the whole season after rupturing his ACL in an intra-club match. Denver Grainger-Barras will be sidelined for 12-14 weeks after he sustained a “turf toe” injury, while Will McCabe will miss at least three months with a lower back injury. (Will Day will also miss the start of the season after sustaining a stress fracture in his foot.) They’re injuries the Hawks could ill-afford for a whole bunch of reasons. For a start, their backline already conceded the second-most goals per inside 50 entry last year. The injuries will rob Blanck and Grainger-Barras of valuable development. They mean that Hawthorn’s excellent young midfield simply has no room for error – the Hawks will lose almost every time they’re outpointed in the engine room. And they also put captain James Sicily in an invidious position. He’s one of the best intercept defenders in the game, snuffing out opposition attacks and beginning Hawthorn scoring chains. He might need to play on key forwards for the first half of the season. The absence of reigning best-and-fairest Will Day for at least the first few weeks of the season will also deprive the Hawks of class and composure.
A second, admittedly slightly more subjective cause for pessimism: I am sceptical about the quality of forwards Hawthorn have brought in. The rationale is easy enough to understand: Mabior Chol will line up as a second marking target inside 50 next to Mitch Lewis, with Jack Gunston as the third tall. If they can’t mark it, they can at least bring it down for the likes of Luke Breust, Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan and Nick Watson. It’s a flexible set-up. But I worry about its quality and long-term viability. Lewis and Breust are both very good forwards. But Breust is 33, and Lewis has barely played half of the available games since his debut. Gunston was very good but his year at Brisbane suggests the past tense might be warranted. Chol provides more of a goal threat than the man he’s replaced, Jacob Koschitzke, but much less without the ball. As for Ginnivan, this season will tell us if he’s the livewire forward who electrified the AFL in 2022, or the slow and at times frankly sub-standard imitation of 2023. Hawks fans make the argument that even a modest improvement to their forward line will propel the side up the ladder. But from the outside, it looks like a big outlay on a group that will need further upgrades before the Hawks enter their next Premiership window.
There’s something else I think is worth mentioning here – the racism inquiry. The AFL has closed the book – they concluded their investigation last May, and made “no adverse findings” against Alastair Clarkson, Chris Fagan, or Jason Burt, the three staff members most closely implicated. For some Hawthorn fans, perhaps most, that’s enough to declare the matter settled. For others, learning about these events (and, subsequently, understanding Cyril Rioli’s choice to retire early and then distance himself from the club) have retrospectively dampened the lustre of the dynasty years. I’m not telling Hawks fans how to feel. But, as a football fan, it feels like a sad reminder of how much progress there is still to be made in terms of creating genuinely supportive environments for indigenous players and their families.
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Breakout player
It’s a cliche – but Josh Weddle. The 19 year-old combines the attributes of an intercept defender and dashing half-back flanker. He averages more than five marks and three score involvements per game. He’s good at getting the ball and is already top ten league wide for bounces per game. Plus he can run all day. He’s a fascinating hybrid. Honourable mention to Henry Hustwaite, who’s excited Hawks fans in pre-season.
Most important player
It’s a cliche – but James Sicily. If he’s not the best defender in the league, he’s in the top three. He’s also Sam Mitchell’s lieutenant on the field. I’ve made the point in another preview that experienced players, when harnessed correctly, don’t just help the side to win games in the short term, they also help in the long term by assisting the development of younger players. Hawks fans will want Sicily to be part of their next flag. Even if he isn’t, chances are he will have played a big part in it.
Biggest question to answer
How will a new-look forward line gel? I spoke about my reservations above – one of them being that it looks like a curiously short-term decision in the context of a club planning for the future. The flipside is that you’d expect Breust and Gunston to pass on their years of experience to the younger forwards around them.
What success looks like
The injuries to Day, Blanck and Grainger-Barras will cost Hawthorn some wins until they return to full fitness. Add a tough draw (it’s rated as the fifth-hardest) and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Hawthorn don’t win more than the seven games they managed last year. But Sam Mitchell will be smart enough to know that what really matters is the continued development of a young list and implementation of his exciting game plan.
In a nutshell
Hawthorn profile as an exciting young team poised to rise up the ladder. Injuries to key defenders mean it might not happen this season, but they’re unlikely to derail their long-term trajectory.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Hawks? Share your thoughts in the comments.