2024 AFL Season Previews: Gold Coast
Can Damien Hardwick create a new dawn at the Suns?
I’m kicking off my 2024 season previews by looking at the eight teams competing in Opening Round. Let’s turn our attention to the Gold Coast Suns.
2023 ladder position: 15th (9 wins, 14 losses)
2023 best-and-fairest: Noah Anderson
Senior coach: Damien Hardwick
Story of the season
Gold Coast’s Round 16 game against Collingwood shaped up as the most consequential in the club’s young history. It was certainly the most anticipated. Supporters and the footy media descended on Heritage Bank Stadium with one question on their minds: could this be the game where the Suns announced themselves as a serious team? The answer didn’t take long to arrive. The Pies ran in 11 goals to one in a dominant first half. The Suns’ 78-point defeat wasn’t merely a disappointment. It was embarrassing. And it sealed the fate of their coach, Stuart Dew. The affable South Australian was given his marching orders after Port Adelaide drove in one more nail. Five weeks later, the worst kept secret in football was finally confirmed as three-time Premiership coach Damien Hardwick was announced as his permanent replacement. His announcement, plus a handful of exciting Academy recruits, means it’s a new dawn for the Suns.
Summary of game style
Under Stuart Dew, Gold Coast played to their strengths – namely, their ground game. They had the third-best clearance differential in the AFL in 2023. So often, a Suns score would originate from Matt Rowell or Noah Anderson winning the ball at stoppage, shovelling out a quick handball, and then kicking for territory and doing it all over again. It was pretty dour – Dew’s team played with almost no outside run – but reasonably effective. The biggest knock on the Suns under Dew was that, despite their contested prowess, they weren’t very good without the ball. They were fourth-bottom for tackle differential, clangers conceded, and dead last for preventing opposition scoring chains originating from turnovers. It was that inability to prevent opposition sides from imposing their style that ultimately cost Dew his job.
Dew’s replacement, Damien Hardwick, changed how AFL football was played. His Richmond side was statistically distinctive. They didn’t care much about possession. They didn’t care about clearances. Instead, they trusted in their incredible ability to score from turnovers in dangerous parts of the ground, and a defence that was like both a brick wall and a trampoline. They were a brilliant reactive side that forced errors and punished them ruthlessly. If Jürgen Klopp tried his hand at AFL coaching, his teams would probably play like Hardwick’s Tigers.
The way you play is usually a function of who you have. On paper, Gold Coast’s list appears to map fairly well onto what Hardwick will want to do, at least with the ball: good intercept defenders in Charlie Ballard and Mac Andrew, ferociously tough, kick-first midfielders like Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson, and a forward line that provides pressure and marking. The two big questions to answer are whether the Hardwick Suns can move the ball faster, and whether they can impact the game without the ball.
List changes
In:
Jed Walter (2023 National Draft, pick #3)
Ethan Read (2023 National Draft, pick #9)
Jake Rogers (2023 National Draft, pick #14)
Will Graham (2023 National Draft, pick #26)
Sam Clohesy (2023 Rookie Draft, pick #4)
Will Rowlands (2023 Rookie Draft, pick #18)
Jack Mahony (2023 Rookie Draft, pick #24)
Out:
Mabior Chol (traded to Hawthorn)
Chris Burgess (traded to Adelaide)
Elijah Hollands (traded to Carlton)
Jed Anderson (delisted)
Jake Stein (delisted)
Jeremy Sharp (delisted)
Brodie McLaughlin (retired)
Connor Blakely (retired)
Charlie Constable (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: 11 (second-most)
Average age at Opening Round: 24.6 (eighth-oldest)
Average number of games played: 69.6 (ninth-fewest)
The Suns’ list is in rude health. A big chunk of their production is generated by players in or approaching their peak years, and the only core player who you can confidently say is nearer to the end of their career than the beginning is their #1 ruck, Jarrod Witts. Their midfield stocks in particular look outstanding. Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson are 22 and 23 respectively, and the 31 year-old David Swallow’s centre bounce attendances were gradually superseded by 22 year-old Sam Flanders after the bye. The additional blessing is that replacements for the Suns’ two oldest regulars, Witts and Levi Casboult, fell into their laps on draft night. The Suns selected four academy players in the first round, including the consensus best forward in Jed Walter and one of the best rucks in Ethan Read. Provided their emerging young players like Bailey Humphrey, Sam Flanders and Mac Andrew maintain a good trajectory, the Suns should have a list that’s competitive for years to come.
Line rankings
Defence: Average
Midfield: Elite
Forward: Above Average
Ruck: Above Average
The case for optimism
The Suns have an exciting list supplemented by a great-looking draft haul and the most successful AFL coach of the last decade, who’ll be able to do his work outside of the harsh glare of the Melbourne footy media.
As I alluded to in the list profile section, Gold Coast’s younger players already do a lot of heavy lifting. Five of the top 10 in their Best & Fairest were under 25, with Witts the only player older than 30. And the exciting thing is that given the development their young players have shown to date, you’d expect that contribution to only increase. Don’t be surprised if Sam Flanders, Bailey Humphrey, Mac Andrew and Ben King all make the top 10 in the Suns’ B&F this year. Add in the four exciting draftees, all of whom have an existing emotional connection to the Suns as Academy players, and the immediate future looks bright.
Since they entered the AFL in 2011, it’s been hard to shake the feeling that a lot of people just don’t take the Suns all that seriously. There are some minor reasons: the perception that the Gold Coast is a fickle market, the initially shabby facilities, the uninspiring branding. But the biggest reason is their football hasn’t warranted being taken seriously. Relevance deprivation syndrome is a pretty big source of unhappiness for supporters. And it can contribute to player unrest. The Suns have lost a hell of a lot of good players along the journey: Steven May, Tom Lynch, Izak Rankine and Adam Saad to name just a few. Moving up the ladder under the tutelage of a successful coach should make players and fans alike feel like the Gold Coast is the place to be – in 2024 and beyond.
The case for pessimism
Despite our clamour for the season to begin every year, the return of footy can actually be one of the worst times for supporters. For the six months of the off-season, we delude ourselves into believing that our team’s deficiencies have all been removed, leaving only bulging biceps and ripped torsos after a pre-season spent training the house down. But then, Round 1 arrives, our team confronts the harsh reality of AFL football, and the familiar pessimism returns.
All of this is to say that, on paper, the Suns are trending the right way. But we’ve said that before, haven’t we? Yes, the coaching box has a new occupant. But it wasn’t all that long ago Damien Hardwick quit the Tigers citing burnout. Even if he’s fully rejuvenated, which is plausible given he won’t have coached for almost 10 months by the time the Suns run out for their first game, the sport evolves quickly. Hardwick last won a Premiership in 2020. But the zeitgeist has moved away from frenetic chaosball to something slightly more measured. Teams like Collingwood and Greater Western Sydney attack the ball with vigour, but also employ disciplined ball movement patterns. Perhaps Hardwick will take to AFL circa 2024 like a fish to water. Or perhaps we’ll learn that his style, which already takes some time to teach a new group, has become a little outmoded.
Even if Hardwick does hit the ground running, the fact is that making finals looks like it’ll be a tall order in 2024. There are probably only five teams you can confidently put a line through in terms of making the top eight. That leaves 13 possible finalists, which – in case you hadn’t noticed – doesn’t go into eight. If the Suns make a slow start, which isn’t unlikely given they’ll be learning a new style, they could be playing catch-up very early.
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Breakout player
It’s a crowded field. Sam Flanders looks primed to make the leap. Some time off could help Matt Rowell rediscover the explosiveness that characterised his first season. Bailey Humphrey could be anything. But I’m really excited to watch Mac Andrew in 2024. He combines excellent speed and intercept marking with good disposal coming out of the back 50. If he can put some minor discipline and pre-season injury issues behind him, he will provide an important point of difference for the Suns.
Most important player
I interpret this question not as “best player” but more like “player whose absence would be felt the most”. By that measure, Gold Coast’s most important player is Jarrod Witts. He’s a top-five ruckman in the AFL and key to the Suns’ strength in stoppages. Ned Moyle looked relatively promising in two games in 2023, and there are big wraps on Ethan Read. But right now, neither is half a Witts (sorry).
Biggest question to answer
Can Damien Hardwick work his old magic again? He’s inherited a good list that looks primed to spend a few years near the top of the ladder. But there’s simply no guarantee it’ll happen. His style might not take. It might no longer be fit for purpose in a league that’s trending towards higher scoring. Or it might not be the right cultural fit.
What success looks like
The Suns have played 282 games of AFL football. Not a single one has been a final. Guy McKenna couldn’t make finals. Nor could Rodney Eade. Or Stuart Dew. Hardwick will be expected to. Given the track record and the talent at his disposal, he should. Many think he must.
In a nutshell
If Hardwick can add the toughness, speed and ironclad belief that characterised his Richmond sides, and Gold Coast’s young list continues developing as it has, the Suns are primed to move up in the ladder in 2024 – and beyond.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Suns? Share your thoughts in the comments.