2024 AFL Season Previews: Geelong
Can the Cats bounce back after a disappointing year?
Geelong did something unexpected in 2023 – they missed the finals. Will they return to the eight in 2024, or are they set for some time near the bottom?
2023 ladder position: 12th (10 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw)
2023 best-and-fairest: Tom Stewart
Senior coach: Chris Scott
Story of the season
The Cats came into 2023 off the back of a dominant Premiership year which capped an extraordinary 15-year run of success. Most pundits expected them to be right at the pointy end once again. But then something unusual happened. They lost their first three games – which no reigning Premier had done since 1976. And despite winning their next five, in truth, they were always playing catch-up. A shocking run with injuries and some unlucky losses meant the Cats could never generate the momentum they needed to make finals. They lost four out of their last five games to finish 12th. It was their equal-lowest finish and – incredibly – just the second time since 2006 the Cats had a holiday in September.
Summary of game style
Prior to 2022, Geelong built their own attacks and prevented opposition attacks the same way: by possessing the ball and controlling tempo. It was a style that worked beautifully in the Home & Away season but often succumbed to the pressure of finals football. In their Premiership year, the Cats shed their previously pathological need to always have the ball (their uncontested possession differential fell from first in 2021 to fifth in 2022) and instead attacked and defended with more aggression, allowing them to keep the ball near their attacking goal for longer. Key players hitting top form, and the amazing emergence of Tyson Stengle as an All-Australian small forward, also helped immensely.
Where things really fell apart on the field last year – largely because of the aforementioned injuries – was in the clearances. The Cats went from being ranked sixth for clearance differential in 2022 to 16th last year. Even though other traditional pillars of their game, such as contested marking and intercept possessions, held up reasonably well, they just couldn’t overcome the basic problem of not getting first use of the ball.
List changes
In:
Connor O’Sullivan (2023 National Draft, pick #11)
Mitchell Edwards (2023 National Draft, pick #32)
Shaun Mannagh (2023 National Draft, pick #36)
George Stevens (2023 National Draft, pick #58)
Lawson Humphries (2023 National Draft, pick #63)
Emerson Jeka (2023 Rookie Draft)
Joe Furphy (Category B Rookie)
Out:
Esava Ratugolea (traded to Port Adelaide)
Sam Menegola (delisted)
Flynn Kroeger (delisted)
Osca Riccardi (delisted)
Sam Simpson (delisted)
Cooper Whyte (delisted)
Isaac Smith (retired)
Jonathon Ceglar (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: four (third-fewest)
Average age at Opening Round: 25.4 (second-oldest)
Average number of games played: 88.6 (second-most)
The Cats have 11 players aged 30 or older. Some, like Jed Bews, are barely in their fourth decade. Tom Hawkins, on the other hand, is more than halfway through. The Cats being old is nothing new – it’s the byproduct of their deliberate strategy to prolong their competitiveness at the cost of high draft picks. What is new is missing finals.
On the evidence of 2023, Geelong are still a pretty good team that was derailed by injuries. But a wasted year when half of your starting team is 30+ really hurts, because it brings them closer to the cliff. Last year, for the example, was the first time it was possible to detect a real (albeit slight) decline in Hawkins’ output. Ultimately, the Cats’ fortunes this year still depend on injuries and the performance of the older players. If they start well, they might make one more tilt. If they don’t, then Cats fans may have to finally familiarise themselves with footy’s most dreaded r-word: the rebuild.
Line rankings
Defence: Above Average
Midfield: Average
Forward: Elite
Ruck: Average
The case for optimism
Geelong fans have micro- and macro-reasons for optimism. The micro- is that, statistically, they were still a finals-calibre team in 2023. Geelong ranked seventh on Pythagorean wins, a measure which forecasts how many games a team “should” have won based on their underlying metrics. Their percentage was better than three sides which made the eight, and virtually identical to Port Adelaide’s. The main thing that went against them was luck. They lost close games (they won just two of seven games decided by fewer than 20 points) but won big (their average winning margin was 46.4 points, and four of their 10 victories were by more than 10 goals) – especially at GMHBA Stadium.
What ultimately brought Geelong undone last year was injuries to key players. Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan, Tyson Stengle, Gary Rohan and Patrick Dangerfield (among others) missed significant amounts of football at key parts of the season. Missing your best players turns comfortable victories into narrow defeats. If the Cats’ veterans stay healthy and run hot, another deep finals run isn’t out of the question.
The macro-reason Cats fans should be optimistic is… [gestures at their 21st-century performance]. Yes, past performance is no indication of future success. But it certainly makes you feel good when the club you support, generally speaking, knows what it’s doing. No club has more Premierships than Geelong in the 2000s. They’ve finished in the top four a staggering 13 times since their drought-breaking flag of 2007. They have repeatedly turned conventional wisdom on its head by topping up and going again. Just look at the top three of their Best & Fairest last year: Tom Stewart was overlooked by recruiters for years until being picked up at #40 in 2016. Tom Atkins was picked up in the 2019 rookie draft. And Gryan Miers was chosen at pick #57 in the 2017 national draft. It’s when most other sides have packed up and gone home that the Cats’ recruiters have done some of their best work. Although he’s handed over responsibility to Andrew Mackie, Stephen Wells has probably created more value than any other non-playing AFL staff member in the last 20 years.
All of which is to say don’t be surprised if Geelong’s new recruits make an immediate impact. Connor O’Sullivan was rated as the best key defender in the draft. Shaun Mannagh was best afield in the VFL Grand Final. And George Stevens and Lawson Humphries might just end up as yet more diamonds salvaged from the rough.
The case for pessimism
The universe doesn’t care about your excuses. Perhaps the Cats would have made finals with a clean bill of health. But they weren’t healthy, and they didn’t make finals. And now, an already-old team is one year older.
In 2022, the Cats were content to basically split clearances because they were so confident in their superiority in both 50-metre arcs. But if you can’t reliably win the ball or turn it over, you’ve got a problem. Returning to something approaching clearance parity will require both fewer injuries and internal improvement. Young players like Tanner Bruhn and Jhye Clark should take the next step. But will their improvement be enough to offset the potential decline of Mitch Duncan and Patrick Dangerfield? It’s a big ask. The sight of Cam Guthrie, whose 2023 season was ruined by injuries, leaving the field seconds into Geelong’s match simulation against Carlton, doesn’t bode well. (ETA: he’s just been ruled out for 8-10 weeks. Disaster.)
The wily, streetwise Cats could easily make finals. But you can say that for about 10 teams – it looks like there’ll be a logjam in the middle of the ladder. Beyond that, they look both too old and too callow to make a big impression.
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Breakout player
In his AFL debut, Jhye Clark gathered six touches and laid five tackles in a bit over a quarter. Cats fans loved what they saw. Unfortunately, the #8 pick from the 2022 draft then suffered a foot injury which kept him out for the rest of the season. Tanner Bruhn appears to be coming on very well. If Clark can show similar potential in what will effectively be his first year, Cats fans will feel a lot more confident about the long-term future of their midfield. An honourable mention to Ollie Dempsey, who looks primed for more time up forward for the seniors.
Most important player
Tom Stewart is making up for lost time. Despite not debuting until after his 24th birthday, the 30 year-old has already racked up five All-Australian selections. He’s the consummate modern defender, repelling opposition attacks and initiating them for Geelong. There’s supposedly been some talk he’ll spend more time in the midfield in 2024. That seems a strange choice when Stewart is the main reason why Geelong’s defence conceded the second-fewest scoring shots per inside-50 entry in 2023.
Biggest question to answer
Do the veteran Cats have one more life left? While not many people believe the Dangerfield and Hawkins generation can win another flag, not very many people have made money betting against Geelong in the last 15 years. Being competitive and making finals will give the young and middle-age players an opportunity to step up – which could provide a platform for the kind of continued success Cats fans have become accustomed to.
What success looks like
There are two ways Geelong can have a successful 2024. The first is squeezing another finals run out of players like Dangerfield, Hawkins and Mitch Duncan. The second is quickly realising that it won’t happen and providing the club’s younger players with the opportunity to take over the reins. Missing finals might ultimately be worth it if Tanner Bruhn, Gryan Miers, Max Holmes, Jhye Clark and Sam de Koning establish themselves as future leaders.
In a nutshell
Bad luck prevented Geelong from playing finals in 2023. If the veterans maintain their form and young players improve, they should make it back to September. But, for the first time in a long time, it’s hard to see them going deep.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Cats? Share your thoughts in the comments.
It is actually good you can write this entire post without mentioning our best player. This is why Geelong are a sleeper team.
Jeremy Cameron.
Round 8 last year before Danger went out and our forward line delivery slipped, he was considered the best player in the comp (was 3rd in brownlow at that point). He had a baby and a concussion in 2023 and still came 5th in the Coleman.
His mobility and long legs make it look he's a senior playing against under 16s. A bit inconsistent but at his best kicks big bags and racks up touches. Not unlike Buddy Franklin. Underrated and overlooked, just like the club he plays for!