2024 AFL Season Previews: Fremantle
Can the Dockers bounce back after a shocker of a year?
With just three season previews left, it’s time to focus on the Nullarbor states. Let’s look at how Justin Longmuir’s side are poised heading into 2024.
2023 ladder position: 14th (10 wins, 13 losses)
2023 best-and-fairest: Caleb Serong
Senior coach: Justin Longmuir
Story of the season
Sometimes it really is the hope that kills you. The Dockers bounded into the season with the optimism that only winning a final as a young side can provide. Then they lost to St. Kilda in Round 1. Then they lost to North Melbourne, at home, in Round 2. It was like being slapped across the face with a wet fish. Consecutive heavy defeats, including to the same Western Bulldogs side that they beat in a final less than seven months previously, saw Freo limp to a 2-5 record. Improved ball movement that resulted in four straight wins midway through the season made it look like Longmuir had successfully wrestled the car back onto the road. And then the wheels came off. Just one win from the next seven games definitively snuffed out any hope of finals. A couple of nice late wins, including a 101-point thrashing of West Coast, helped paper over the cracks and provided supporters with some cheer. But there’s no sugar-coating it: 14th was an extremely disappointing finish for a side many people were expecting big things from.
Summary of game style
Perhaps Freo’s biggest problem is that this is harder to answer than it should be. So let’s go back to 2022 – when they had a clear plan, and executed it well. That season, the Dockers ranked #1 for disposals, #1 for handballs, #1 for uncontested possessions, #1 for rebounding from defensive 50 without conceding a score, #3 for clearance differential and #4 for tackles inside 50. So in other words, the Dockers were very good at getting the ball, very good at keeping it (primarily through handballs and short kicks), and even pretty good at winning it back. That led to them conceding the fewest goals per game – and winning a home final.
Justin Longmuir clearly intended to do the same thing in 2023. Freo were still in the top four for most handballs made, and in the top two for kicking efficiency and handball efficiency. But they regressed on several other key metrics. They were outmuscled in the contest. They became a bottom-eight team for pressure (including 16th for opposition turnovers) and goals conceded. And, in many ways, the real problems began when they had the ball in their hands. They got stuck – over and over. Fremantle became one of the poorest teams in rebounding from defensive 50 and initiating scoring chains. They ranked 17th for moving the ball from their defensive 50 to attacking 50. Conceding the fewest clangers looks good until you realise it means they didn’t take enough risks (for reference, GWS were 16th and Collingwood were 13th). Many pundits claimed that the Dockers’ biggest problem was that they moved the ball too slowly. But that was really only half the story. What really killed the Dockers is that, at their worst, they tried to force the issue by taking unnecessary risks – which led to them coughing up the ball and not winning it back. The Dockers didn’t execute. But it wasn’t actually clear that the plan they were trying to execute was even the right one.
List changes
In:
Cooper Simpson (2023 National Draft, pick #35)
Ollie Murphy (2023 National Draft, pick #41)
Jack Delean (2023 National Draft, pick #60)
Odin Jones (2023 Rookie Draft, pick #5)
Oscar McDonald (Delisted Free Agent)
Jeremy Sharp (Supplemental Selection Period)
Patrick Voss (Supplemental Selection Period)
Out:
Lachie Schultz (traded to Collingwood)
Liam Henry (traded to St. Kilda)
Joel Hamling (free agent – Sydney)
Eric Benning (delisted)
Travis Colyer (delisted)
Nathan Wilson (delisted)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: eight (fifth-most)
Average age at Opening Round: 23.9 (fourth-youngest)
Average number of games played: 56.6 (second-fewest)
The top ten of Freo’s 2023 best-and-fairest is a perfect distillation of their opportunities and challenges. A key marker of the progress made by a building side is the contribution of younger players. In that regard, the Dockers are flying. Half of the players in the top 10 were under 25. The oldest was their 28 year-old captain, Alex Pearce. Caleb Serong, the winner, is still just 23. Names like Jye Amiss and Brandon Walker will surely feature in the future.
The list isn’t complete: part of Freo’s issues moving the ball come down to lacking a top-level half-back, while too much of the goal-kicking responsibility falls on the shoulders of Jye Amiss and Sonny Walters, who’s now 33. But – despite the well-documented player retention issues – I’m bullish about Freo’s list. Personnel is not their biggest issue.
Line rankings
Defence: Above Average
Midfield: Above Average
Forward: Average
Ruck: Elite
The case for optimism
I’m going to be pretty harsh on the Dockers, and particularly on Justin Longmuir, in the pessimism section. But I don’t want that criticism to obscure the fact that, in the medium-term, there’s still quite a lot for Freo fans to be optimistic about.
The obvious place to begin is the list. Despite leaking players, it’s still shaping up nicely. Most of the Dockers’ best players are still young, and the emergence of Jye Amiss as a future star key forward means the Dockers don’t have obvious gaps anywhere. The major concerns are probably the small/medium forward role after Schultz’s departure (particularly given Walters’ age) and the lack of outside run from wing and half-back. But they feel like fixable problems – especially because the Dockers have lots of cap space and a strong draft hand. Three first-round draft picks in 2024 (two of them tied to Collingwood and Port) could turn into three exciting players. Alternatively, two of them could turn into Logan McDonald. The thought of Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw feeding off Sean Darcy’s ruckwork and delivering inside 50 for Amiss, McDonald and Luke Jackson is an appetising one. In short – they have the time and resources to work things out.
The other important thing to remember is that young sides having a down year before coming good is actually quite common. In 2015, Richmond finished fifth before slumping to miss the eight the next year. There were significant doubts about whether Damien Hardwick was the right person to lead the Tigers to success. You know what happened next. Sydney regressed in 2011 before winning the flag the following year. I’m not suggesting that means you should put all your money on the Dockers. I’m simply saying that development isn’t linear. The players who showed so much in 2022 still deserve the benefit of the doubt.
One more cause for optimism: the ruck rule change. From now on, straight-arm blocks will be allowed in a ruck contest, provided the player also contests the ball. It’s hard to think of many rucks who should benefit more from the change than Sean Darcy. He already helped the Dockers record the highest ruck contest win percentage and second-most taps to advantage last season. With even more opportunity to use his physicality, he – and, by extension, the Freo midfield – should feast. What a shame, then, that he’ll miss the first few weeks of the season with a knee injury.
The case for pessimism
Dockers fans must feel like their club takes a step backwards for every step forwards. In 2021, they lost Adam Cerra to Carlton. Then they won a home final and brought in Luke Jackson. Then they slumped to 14th – and, to add insult to injury, lost Lachie Schultz and Liam Henry (and free agent Joel Hamling). Sure, they were compensated for both Schultz and Henry. And sure, they've got a good draft hand this year. But draft picks have wide error bars. Those picks might turn into better players – in a few years. In the short term, they’re inadequate compensation.
All told, Freo have lost 16 players since 2017. Losing players doesn’t just make the already (very) difficult job of building a list that can compete for flags as a smaller non-Victorian side that much harder. It also saps morale. Whenever a star player defects, other players become more likely to question if they’re in the right environment. I don’t want to harp on about it. Freo aren’t really unique. Retention has been a problem non-Victorian sides have had to contend with since they entered the AFL. But some of them seem to have solved it. The Dockers haven’t.
On field, there are also problems to solve – as you’d expect from a side that finished 14th. For the first seven rounds, Freo were repeatedly killed by ball-use errors in their back half, which led to them being more conservative, which led to them getting pinned in their defensive half. Justin Longmuir recognised the issues and spoke about how hard everyone was working to fix them. For a month, it bore fruit. More imaginative ball movement, particularly an increased willingness to advance the ball up the wings (rather than looking to the corridor at all costs), resulted in impressive wins against Geelong, Sydney and Melbourne. It looked like the Dockers had finally recaptured their 2022 form. Then, just as hopes were at their highest, they fell apart, losing eight of their final 12 games.
The extremely disappointing end to 2023 crystallised something I wrote above: Freo’s biggest problem is tactics, not personnel. The Dockers went into their shell. They looked timid and tentative. And although Longmuir accurately diagnosed the problems, he couldn’t find a solution. If he doesn’t, then both his job and Freo’s short-term prospects are in trouble. The fact that he was lamenting the same issues after defeat to Port Adelaide in their last pre-season game doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Nor will one of the hardest fixtures facing any club.
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Breakout player
Hayden Young was moved into the midfield for the final five games of last season – and he thrived, averaging more than four clearances and almost eight tackles a game. Over that time, the Dockers beat Geelong in Geelong, and ran Brisbane and Port Adelaide pretty close. The 22 year-old is a good size and possesses a booming left-foot kick. I’m excited to see what he can add to Freo’s midfield.
Most important player
Is it totally crazy to think it might already be Jye Amiss? Freo have two excellent ruckmen, crafty medium-sized forwards, and a very good midfield that bats deep. But they don’t have a key forward remotely approaching the quality of Amiss. He kicked 41 goals in his debut season for a side that was ranked #13th for inside 50 entries. The kid’s clearly got something. Once he gets a good night’s sleep, opposition key defenders are in trouble.
Biggest question to answer
Can Justin Longmuir solve Freo’s tactical issues? His side appear to have all the raw ingredients for fast-paced, pressure football. But last year, they were the ones making the turnovers, not forcing them. That led to a crisis of confidence, stodgy ball movement, and confusion in the coaching box. Longmuir’s success in that endeavour will probably determine whether he keeps his job.
What success looks like
In acknowledgement of the vagaries of luck and other teams’ performances, people involved in elite sport have increasingly taken to talking about “the process” – establishing the conditions that maximise the chances of success. Fremantle have made solid, if uneven, progress on one important part of that process: the playing group. The other part is up to Longmuir and his assistants. They must find a tactical identity that maximises the potential of a talented list.
In a nutshell
Fremantle have talent. What’s in doubt is the Dockers’ ability to hold onto wanted players – and Justin Longmuir’s ability to solve tactical problems. The latter, in particular, will determine their success in 2024.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Dockers? Share your thoughts in the comments.