2024 AFL Season Previews: Collingwood

Can Fly's Pies go back-to-back?

I’m kicking off my 2024 season previews by looking at the eight teams competing in Opening Round. Let’s look at the reigning Premiers.

McRae’s the one on the right.

2023 ladder position: 1st (18 wins, 5 losses – Premiers)

2023 best-and-fairest: Josh Daicos

Senior coach: Craig McRae

Story of the season

At the start of 2023, AFL journalists were asked to predict their ladders for the upcoming season. More of them had Collingwood finishing outside the top eight than inside the top four. I don’t mean to pick on these journos – there are roughly 6.4e^15 possible ladder combinations. I doubt anyone has ever correctly predicted the ladder, at least not in the 18-team era. Their selections reflected a common belief about the Pies heading into 2023: they couldn’t keep getting away with it. It simply wasn’t sustainable to win so many close games (the Pies won 11 out of 12 games decided by less than two goals in 2022). Their underlying numbers weren’t strong enough. They had visible flaws. So instead, Craig McRae decided to win games by bigger margins instead. Collingwood were imperious in the first half of the season, adding clearance strength to their irresistible ball movement. Despite a slight regression from those lofty standards later on in the season, they still finished as minor Premiers. In the finals, they happily returned to their 2022 shenanigans, winning all three games by seven points or fewer. Collingwood won the Premiership – their 16th, putting them level with their grand old rivals, Carlton and Essendon. They did indeed keep getting away with it. 

Summary of game style

Many Collingwood fans will find this an invidious comparison, but it’s too true to pass up: under Craig McRae, Collingwood are the Bazball of the AFL (Raeball? Flyball?). That manifests in two closely-related ways: the first is tactical. Collingwood are ultra-aggressive during all phases of play. When they don’t have the ball, or it’s in dispute (e.g. at a stoppage), they’ll overload the space close to the ball in order to maximise their chances of winning possession. As soon as possession is assured, either because of a contested win or defensive interception from the likes of Darcy Moore, Collingwood’s quicker, more skilful players (e.g. Nick Daicos) bolt forward. In other words, the Pies are constantly making calculated bets that their teammate will have the ball and be able to find them at the front of the stoppage. That creates the space that allows Daicos et al to stream into the forward 50 and either take direct shots at goal or fashion opportunities with clever ball use. 

The second reason why Craig McRae is the Brendon McCullum of the AFL is psychological. The England test team have improved their performance levels by liberating their players from the fear of failure. And that’s what Collingwood have done. Their high-risk style is only viable because they trust each other, and they know they won’t be punished or publicly castigated by their captain or coach if it doesn’t come off. I suspect this is also the reason why the Magpies have such an astonishing recent record in close games. They’re driven by the ecstasy of victory, not the agony of defeat. It makes for exhilarating football.

The Pies’ final pre-season game against Richmond suggests that McRae and his assistants have been tinkering over the summer. Collingwood kicked it 259 times against the Tigers, 28 times more than the most kicks they recorded in a game in 2023. Those 259 kicks resulted in 130 marks, significantly above last season’s average (90). What’s more, the Pies handballed it just 119 times against the Tigers, less than every game in 2023 except the Qualifying Final.

List changes

In: 

• Harry DeMattia (2023 National Draft, pick #25)

• Tew Jiath (2023 National Draft, pick #37)

• Lachie Schultz (traded from Fremantle)

• Jack Bytel (Supplemental Selection Period)

• Josh Eyre (Supplemental Selection Period)

• Lachie Sullivan (Supplemental Selection Period)

• Wil Parker (Category B Rookie)

Out:

• Taylor Adams (traded to Sydney)

• Jack Ginnivan (traded to Hawthorn)

• Trent Bianco (delisted)

• Arlo Draper (delisted)

• Will Kelly (delisted)

• Cooper Murley (delisted)

• Trey Ruscoe (delisted)

• Tom Wilson (delisted)

List profile

---

Number of top-10 draft picks: five (eleventh most)

Average age at Opening Round: 25.9 (oldest)

Average number of games played: 92.1 (most)

It’s an amusing juxtaposition that the side which plays the most devil-may-care football in the AFL is also the oldest – and it’s not close, either. It’s a slightly misleading statistic. In absolute terms, the difference isn’t that great, and it’s obviously skewed by the presence of the seemingly ageless Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom. But it’s striking. Being old isn’t necessarily a problem. The goal is to win, not put out the youngest side. And it’s not as though Collingwood don’t have some excellent young players. But the question McRae and Collingwood’s recruitment staff will be asking themselves is by how much will the team decline when Dad’s Army hangs up their boots? 

At some level, list management and team selection are all about choosing how much to borrow from the future. Pendlebury and Sidebottom helped Collingwood win the flag last year. They will help the Pies get close this year. But in terms of both draft picks and experience for the younger generation, those decisions have a cost.

In terms of recruitment, it’s hardly a surprise that the reigning Premiers didn’t see much need to overhaul their list. Draftees Harry DeMattia and Tew Jiath seem to be astute additions who’ll add midfield grunt and run from half-back (respectively) when the likes of Tom Mitchell and Brayden Maynard begin slowing down. The prized recruit is undoubtedly Lachie Schultz from Freo. The crafty small/medium forward will add pressure and a marking threat.

Line rankings

Defence: Elite

Midfield: Elite

Forward: Above Average

Ruck: Average

The case for optimism

As post-Premiership euphoria is not a feeling I’m accustomed to, I can only imagine how Magpies fans have been feeling for the last six months. And the good news for them is the short-term picture remains rosy.

Flag aside, the single strongest piece of evidence for optimism is that the first third of 2023 shows that they can reach a level beyond the capabilities of any other team. Craig McRae correctly surmised that the Pies’ major weakness in 2022 was contested possessions – they were 17th for contested possession differential. Enter Tom Mitchell. The 2018 Brownlow Medallist, discarded by Hawthorn as part of their deep list cut, made an immediate difference. Through the first six rounds of 2023, the Pies were first for contested possession differential (while maintaining their superiority in uncontested ball). A weakness had seemingly become a strength. As the season progressed, that contested strength declined. By the end of the season, the Pies were 18th for contested possessions conceded and 17th for clearances conceded – a legacy of the risks they take. Bring those numbers back up to where they were in the early part of the season, and the Pies could once again put distance between themselves and the rest.

Tom Mitchell was the most astute pick-up of 2023. Lachie Schultz could be the most astute pick-up of 2024. He’s a unique profile: a pressure forward whose main offensive threat is his marking. In that respect, the player he most closely resembles is now a team-mate: Jamie Elliott. Schultz should add even more pressure and threat to a forward line that excels at creating turnovers and finding space inside 50.

If we zoom out a little, another cause for optimism for Pies fans is that the onus is on other teams to solve the puzzle they present. Their list is stable. Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom are slowing down, but they’ve offset their loss of pace with craft and anticipation. Nick Daicos should, somehow, get even better. Darcy Moore, Jordan de Goey, Brayden Maynard and Josh Daicos are in their primes. Almost everyone expected the Pies to be knocked off their perch in 2023. Yet they weren’t.

The case for pessimism

Say the line, Bart! OK, then: they really can’t keep getting away with it. Here’s the evidence. Almost everything went right for the Pies last year. They went 6-1 in close games, and won three close finals despite arguably being outplayed in two of them. They consistently made tough shots while opponents missed theirs. Across two seasons, they’ve won 20 out of 24 games decided by two goals or less. Lots of close games are essentially coin flips. The teams are even, and the result is random. If you flipped a coin 24 times, the chances of getting 20 or more heads is 0.077%.

Consider what’s more likely: that Craig McRae has cracked the code for winning close games, or that he’s enjoyed two consecutive seasons of good luck. Note that this doesn’t mean I’m begrudging the Pies their success. They’re an excellent team, and were deserving Premiers. Their experience in close games, and the intimidation factor of the Black and White army in full voice make a difference. But there’s simply no precedent in footy or any other sport for a team consistently overperforming based on their underlying metrics. Even if McRae has found a real psychological or tactical edge that explains their performance in close games – in the elite confines of the AFL, advantages tend to get whittled away.

To that point: the likes of Chris Fagan and Adam Kingsley have probably spent a fair bit of time over the summer devising ways to stop Flyball. One possible solution is to leave one or two players on the defensive side of stoppages to deny the likes of Nick Daicos and Jordan De Goey the space to rush forward, or clamp down on Darcy Moore’s ability to start scoring chains from deep positions. (ETA: this is what makes Collingwood’s choice to kick it more in their final pre-season game so intriguing.)

Based on the numbers that Collingwood were putting up in the back half of 2023, a regression to the mean in close games combined with more effective opposition tactics might see them battling to make the top four. Playing qualifying and preliminary finals away from home makes it a fair bit harder to win the Grand Final.

---

Nodding your head while reading? Think your Pies-supporting mate might enjoy this preview? Then share it with them!

---

Breakout player

It’s safe to say Nick Daicos has already broken out, so I’ll exclude him from consideration. That leaves Beau McCreery as the standout candidate to break out among players who've already made their debut. For now, the tough-tackling (that feels like an understatement) South Australian plays as a pressure forward. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up taking some of the centre bounce attendances vacated by Taylor Adams. McCreery is tough and quick. When he adds a little more composure, he should be a very good player indeed.

Most important player

Darcy Moore. Nick Daicos is the chosen one. Scott Pendlebury bends space and time. Mason Cox starts the beefs. But it’s Moore who leads this team. He has matured into a sublime defender who’s equally adept at taking contested marks or intercepting opposition kicks to start Collingwood scoring chains. His captaincy is just as impressive. Whenever Moore is on the field, you feel like Collingwood are never out of a game.

Biggest question to answer

Can they keep getting away with it? 2023 was the ultimate tease for Collingwood anti-fans because it often looked like they were on the verge of being “found out”. Yet, with the exception of Hawthorn, who destroyed the Pies in the clearances in their Round 21 clash, no one really did. This will be the season when we discover if Collingwood’s amazing ability to win close games really is their superpower – or one of the strangest statistical quirks of 21st century football. 

What success looks like

Maintaining their place at the top table while bringing through the next generation. Craig McRae is intelligent enough to know that his team wasn’t so superior to the chasing pack that going back-to-back is guaranteed, or even likely. What he needs to learn is whether his younger players are good enough to keep the Pies in flag contention once the likes of Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe, Elliott and Mitchell retire.

In a nutshell

Collingwood won the Premiership last year despite only playing at a level clearly beyond any other team for about a third of the season. If they rediscover their form from the first two months of 2023, specifically in winning contested possessions, they will be hard to stop. If they can’t, they might be merely very good instead of brilliant.

---

Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Pies? Share your thoughts in the comments.

---