2024 AFL Season Previews: Brisbane
Can the Lions bounce back from Grand Final heartache?
I’m kicking off my 2024 season previews by looking at the eight teams competing in Opening Round. Let’s peek under the hood of the Brisbane Lions.
2023 ladder position: 2nd (17 wins, 6 losses – Grand Final losers)
2023 best-and-fairest: Harris Andrews
Senior coach: Chris Fagan
Story of the season
So near, yet so far. Brisbane made it to their first grand final under Chris Fagan’s coaching tenure and their first overall for 19 years. Ultimately, they came up short against a familiar foe, losing to Collingwood by four points. Perhaps you believe that second place is simply the first loser. But I think a fair analysis would conclude that the Lions made some important forward steps in 2023. They won every single home game. They exorcised some September demons, including coming back from an early deficit against Carlton in the preliminary final. And they integrated enough young talent, like Will Ashcroft, Jaspa Fletcher and Keidean Coleman (who would have been a fitting Norm Smith Medal recipient had the Lions won the grand final), to convince me their flag window will remain open for a little while yet.
Summary of game style
The Lions really love kicking the footy. In 2023, no team did it more, or by a greater margin over their opponents. And their kicking can be a scalpel or a hammer. Brisbane are happy to bide their time in the back half, drawing opponents with short-to-medium kicks or tilting them over to one side of the field before suddenly switching to the opposite flank. After punching a hole in the opposition’s defensive structure, the Lions sprint forward, like their namesakes chasing gazelles on the savannah. High-quality users like Hugh McCluggage, Lincoln McCarthy, Zac Bailey ensure that the ball finds its intended forward target more often than not.
At the same time, the marking power and aerobic capacity of guys like Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood means the Lions aren’t afraid to kick to a contest if there isn’t a better option. No mark? No problem. Thanks to superb on-ballers like Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley, Brisbane are the #1 clearance team in the AFL. The end result is a team that can advance the ball up the field several different ways. Once it finds its way inside 50, one of the competition’s most potent forward lines gets to work. In 2023, the Lions were #3 for shots on goal, and #1 for scoring differential.
List changes
In:
Logan Morris (2023 National Draft, pick #31)
Luke Lloyd (2023 National Draft, pick #42)
Zane Zakostelsky (2023 National Draft, pick #51)
Reece Torrent (2023 National Draft, pick #64)
Brandon Ryan (traded from Hawthorn)
Tom Doedee (free agent – Adelaide)
Bruce Reville (Lions Academy)
Out:
Jack Gunston (traded to Hawthorn)
Tom Fullarton (traded to Melbourne)
Blake Coleman (delisted)
Rhys Mathieson (delisted)
Darryl McDowell-White (delisted)
Daniel Rich (retired)
Marcus Adams (retired)
Nakia Cockatoo (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: five (tied for fourth-fewest)
Average age at Opening Round: 24.9 (equal fourth-oldest)
Average number of games played: 78.8 (fourth-most)
Like most teams challenging for the Premiership, the Lions’ prime movers tend to be in or near their prime. They should continue getting production out of guys like Harris Andrews, Lachie Neale, Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron for a while yet. Only Dayne Zorko, whose centre bounce attendances are being dialled down anyway, is close to the end. The Lions’ second tier skews a little younger: Keidean Coleman, Jack Payne, Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner have lots of years left, and probably some room for further improvement.
Brisbane’s alluring combination of winning lots of games, trading in when needed, and being based in a place that isn’t Melbourne but where lots of players still want to live reminds me of Geelong. The Cats stayed at the top of the game by topping up their list while still maintaining faith in an ageing core. The Lions should consider the same approach.
Line rankings
Defence: Above Average
Midfield: Elite
Forward: Elite
Ruck: Above Average
The case for optimism
You can already make the case that Brisbane are the best team in the AFL. Between 2019 and 2023, no team won more Home & Away games. And it wasn’t especially close, either. The Lions won 77 – five more than Geelong. (Incredibly, Richmond aren’t in the top five – despite winning two flags in that time period.) They’ve turned the Gabba into a fortress, and used that strength as a springboard for sustained success. Brisbane keep putting themselves in the conversation. There’s not much more you can do.
The biggest drawback of that kind of long-term success is being denied access to the top end of the draft. The Lions have neatly sidestepped this in two ways. The first is by trading in high-calibre players to fill gaps in their list. It turns out that footy players like joining good teams in a city with beautiful weather where they can walk down the street in semi-anonymity – who knew? Lachie Neale, Joe Daniher and Josh Dunkley didn’t grow up or start their careers in Brisbane. But they knew they could get close to winning a flag without the constant glare of being in Melbourne or a footy-mad two-team town. It’s a positive feedback loop. The other way the Lions avoid suffering from success is by having access to superb father-son prospects. Will Ashcroft was good enough to immediately slot into Brisbane’s midfield rotation in his first year. His younger brother Levi is projected to be just as good. Not a bad pair of players to have land in your lap.
Drafting high-end talent that’s eager to win a Premiership and excellent father-son prospects has helped Brisbane freshen up a list that’s remained stable for years. The core of this team has been in place since almost the very beginning of Chris Fagan’s tenure. They’ve climbed up the ladder together. Grown together. Losing a grand final by less than a goal hurts. But maybe losing together is the impetus a close group needs to go one step further.
The case for pessimism
Almost everything was perfectly set up for Brisbane last year. Finishing second gave them a home qualifying final. They won that, and then won their home prelim two weeks later. Their list was about as fresh as it’s possible to be in September. They’d already beaten their grand final opponent twice during the season, including in Round 23. The only other thing which could have hypothetically worked in their favour was if they weren’t playing an MCG tenant.
And yet, despite those advantages, the Lions still couldn’t do it. Sure, they came very close. If you played the last five minutes of the grand final 100 times, they’d probably win more often than not. But in the reality we inhabit, they didn’t win. Footy is tactical and physical. Coaches set out the game plan, and then players use their strength, stamina and coordination to execute. But it’s also psychological. You need the courage to take risks. You need to hold your nerve and maintain your technique. And, deep down, you need to believe that if you do all of the above, you can win. Brisbane are a very good side. But not every side has a fairytale ending. St. Kilda didn’t. Freo didn’t. The Crows didn’t. GWS haven’t. Do the Lions truly believe they can win?
Even if they do, that’s of course no guarantee they will. The Lions are formidable. But tactically, they’re not the hardest riddle to decode. They’re unusual among top sides in that they don’t create many turnovers (throughout 2023, their opponents conceded the fourth-fewest). In soccer parlance, they’re not a “pressing” team. Which means that, if the Lions don’t get their hands on it first, they can find it hard to get the ball back. Brisbane lost seven games in 2023. In five of them, they lost the contested battle (contested possessions were even in the grand final, and the Lions had eight more contested possessions than the Crows in Round 11). In all seven, Brisbane were on the wrong end of the uncontested possession differential – sometimes to a staggering degree. Identifying a weakness isn’t the same as exploiting it. But if I was a coach preparing to play the Lions in 2024, I’d consider pushing an extra man to the contest in order to secure first use, and then patiently probing for gaps.
Nodding your head while reading? Think your Lions-supporting mate might enjoy this preview? Then share it with them!
Breakout player
For all their strengths, the Lions don’t move the ball by running with it. In 2023, they were second-last for bounces and last (by a mile) for playing on from kick-ins. Jaspa Fletcher could hold the key to their evolution into a slightly more dynamic, less predictable outfit. The 2022 father-son selection immediately showed a good ability to evade traffic and an eye for goal. I’m excited to see the winger’s progress in 2024.
Most important player
It’s a credit to the consistent quality of the Lions’ list that this is harder to answer than for most other teams. Neale, Daniher and Harris Andrews are obvious answers. But I’ll go for a left-field choice: Josh Dunkley. The Western Bulldogs’ 2022 best-and-fairest winner came into one of the competition’s best midfields and made it significantly better. The year before he joined, Brisbane had the 10th best clearance differential in the AFL. With him, they immediately shot into first place. Dunkley’s height and defensive qualities provide a real point of difference in a midfield that, before his arrival, got caught ahead of the ball slightly too often.
Biggest question to answer
Can the Lions bounce back from the biggest possible disappointment in footy – narrowly losing a grand final? They have the players. But they do have the coach? Do they have the tactical versatility? Do they have the belief? (Sorry, more questions – but they’re all related to the main one!)
What success looks like
It’s now gotten to the stage where nothing less than a Premiership will suffice. Brisbane have done every kind of September heartbreak. They’ve been bundled out in straight sets. Blown out in a prelim. Lost an agonising grand final. The Ashcrofts will probably extend their Premiership window. But it’s time to climb through.
In a nutshell
Brisbane’s mix of clearance strength, kicking skill, high-quality forwards and unimpeachable home advantage is a potent combination. But there’s something of the glass cannon to them. Win (or draw) the contested game and you can starve the Lions of the ball.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Lions? Share your thoughts in the comments.