2024 AFL Season Previews: Adelaide
Can the Crows build on the momentum of an exciting 2023?
With just four season previews left, it’s time to focus on the Nullarbor states. Let’s look at what Matthew Nicks has been up to at West Lakes.
2023 ladder position: 10th* (11 wins, 12 losses)
2023 best-and-fairest: Jordan Dawson
Senior coach: Matthew Nicks
Story of the season
Boy, oh boy. Wowee. The Crows’ season had no shortage of stories. The city of churches reported record levels of hair-tearing after the Crows contrived to lose so many close games despite kicking the most goals of any side in the AFL. But you can’t look past the fact that Adelaide were the victims of a truly monumental officiating stuff-up in the dying stages of their Round 23 game against Sydney. Ben Keays kicked a goal that was incorrectly ruled a behind, and there was no mechanism within the rules to review the play. I know, I know. Roight in front of me, etc. That “goal” would have put the Crows up by four points with less than a minute to play. Had everything except that single result stayed the same across the final two rounds of the home and away season, they would have made the finals – at Sydney’s expense. Tough to top that. But despite not playing finals, Crows fans could console themselves (at least partially) with the knowledge that their young side took a big step forward in 2023.
Summary of game style
The first three years of the Matthew Nicks era were, to put it politely, a slog. The Crows were terrible in 2020, pretty bad in 2021, and thoroughly mediocre in 2022. Understandably, Nicks tried his best to neutralise the talent deficit by playing scrappy, defensive footy. But the the arrival of Jordan Dawson, emergence of other players with high-quality disposal such as Mitch Hinge, and the late-career renaissance of Taylor Walker provided him with several attacking weapons. The question was, what would Nicks do about it?
The answer was delivered with gusto. In 2023, Adelaide challenged their opponents to shootouts, and bet they could win. They were the highest scoring team in the AFL, facilitated by an excellent forward line, hard outside run, and elite kicking across all lines. Tough inside midfielders like Rory Laird and Matt Crouch excelled at winning the ball and shovelling it out to the likes of Jordan Dawson, who delivered it to Walker and co. (the Crows were #1 in the AFL for marks on the lead and inside 50 mark differential). The Crows became one of the most exciting sides in the competition. The trade-off of Adelaide’s high-octane style was that they also tended to concede high-quality scoring opportunities when they turned the ball over – they allowed the 7th-highest expected score per shot in the AFL.
An interesting post-script: in the final six games of the Home & Away season, the Crows went from being a good side to a very good one. They won more clearances, applied more pressure, and forced opponents to kick the ball longer – all of which had the effect of significantly improving their offensive and defensive metrics. The reason? The reintroduction of Matt Crouch after a long exile. (Playing West Coast again also helped.) Crouch, Adelaide’s best-and-fairest from the season they made the Grand Final, has now been fully reintegrated as a starting 23 player. The early weeks of the season will tell us if the improvement he brought to Adelaide was real, or the effects of a small sample size.
List changes
In:
Daniel Curtin (2023 National Draft, pick #8)
Charlie Edwards (2023 National Draft, pick #21)
Oscar Ryan (2023 National Draft, pick #27)
Chris Burgess (traded from Gold Coast)
Out:
Shane McAdam (traded to Melbourne)
Tom Doedee (free agency – Brisbane)
Tyler Brown (delisted)
Jackson Hately (delisted)
Andrew McPherson (delisted)
Tariek Newchurch (delisted)
Fischer McAsey (retired)
Paul Seedsman (retired)
List profile
Number of top-10 draft picks: five (tied for fourth-fewest)
Average age at Opening Round: 25.1 (fifth-youngest)
Average number of games played: 84.9 (fourth-fewest)
The Crows’ list is one of the youngest in the AFL. It’s also one of the most bipolar. There’s a good amount of promising young talent – think Soligo, Rachele, Pedlar, Curtin, et al. There are excellent older players, like Taylor Walker (33) and Rory Laird (30). And then there’s a missing middle. The Crows have only four players on their entire list who’ve played between 100 and 199 senior games (although Lachie Murphy is just two games away from making it five). That’s what happens when you don’t get your drafting right for a few years in a row. That’s part of why successfully persuading Jordan Dawson to join was the best decision the club has made in years. He’s not only the right player – he’s also the right age.
Dawson is the centrepiece of Adelaide’s pursuit of premium South Australian talent, hatched after the disastrous fallout of the 2017 Grand Final, Collective Minds camp, and forced rebuild. So far, the plan has yielded Dawson, Rankine and (arguably) Hinge. The Crows went hard at Will Day and Mason Redman, and are rumoured to be interested in the likes of Jack Lukosius, Charlie Ballard, Harrison Petty and Will Hayward. It’s an interesting way of solving the missing middle problem described above.
The slight concern many Crows fans harbour is that despite the promise of their youngsters, it’s still the veterans and mid-agers making the biggest contributions. That’s not really a surprise. But any expectations of the side’s medium-term potential must be tempered by the fact that Taylor Walker probably has no more than two years left before he hangs up the boots. It’s time for the emerging crop to take the next step and show they can win games.
Line rankings
Defence: Average
Midfield: Above Average
Forwards: Elite
Ruck: Above Average
The case for optimism
Statistically, the Crows were a finals side in 2023 – and if you squint a bit, they were actually a top four side. They were #1 in the AFL for points, tackles and hitouts per game. Second for contested possessions. Third for clearances (although second for clearances conceded). Fifth for inside 50s. They restricted their opponents to fewer marks and disposals than any other side. What let them down was a tendency to lose close games: they lost eight games by 18 points or less, and five by a goal or less (including two to the eventual premiers, Collingwood). And they managed to do this despite having, by at least one measure, the second-hardest fixture in the competition – and the third-least experienced list.
If Adelaide can improve by even five percent relative to the rest of the AFL, whether through organic growth, new draftees making a positive impact (here’s looking at you, Dan Curtin), the overdue return of good vibes to West Lakes after a five-year absence, or through the implantation of the fabled “clutch” gene, then they can be a genuine force in 2024.
There’s also a bigger picture view here. 2018 to 2020 was comfortably the worst three-year period in the club’s history. Beloved players left after the Collective Minds fiasco. Mark Ricciuto was arguing online with former players. The speed of the Crows’ decline on-field (at one point in 2020 they were 0-13) shocked the club hierarchy. To emerge from that abyss and once again resemble a functional, competitive side – pretty quickly, all things told – is a bullish signal for the medium-term for a club whose supporters have grown impatient after a quarter-century of near misses.
The case for pessimism
Statistically, the Crows were a finals side in 2023 – and if you squint a bit, they were actually a top 4 team. But they didn’t even make the finals. Sure, they were the victims of an egregious stuff-up. But there’s no guarantee they would have won that game against Sydney, especially considering their propensity to lose close ones.
The Home & Away season is gruelling for players and fans. But as a statistical sample, it’s actually pretty short, which means hot streaks and cold streaks can make a big difference to teams’ results. The Crows’ forward line ran hot all year. They were the league’s highest-scoring side despite having the lowest expected score per shot. In plain English: they took the hardest shots, and kept on nailing them. They also had the fourth-best expected score +/- differential in the AFL. Another plain English translation: the difference between their scoring overperformance and the opposition’s underperformance was bettered by only three sides. Crows fans correctly point out inaccuracy in key moments that cost them wins. That’s probably true. But you can’t just ignore the times you were lucky.
The Crows’ forwards weren’t just ultra-efficient with ball in hand. They were also incredibly good at turning inside 50s into shots. The difference between the Crows and the second-placed team for scores per inside 50 (Port) was bigger than the difference between Port and the sixth-placed team (Richmond). Taylor Walker was #1 in the AFL for goals per game, #3 for score involvements per game, and #5 for marks inside 50 per game. He was probably a top 20 player league-wide. But he’s also turning 34 a third of the way into the season. In short, that kind of individual and collective over-performance looks hard to maintain. There’s simply no guarantee that Walker, or his forward line colleagues, or the guys whose job it is to deliver them the ball, will perform to the same standards in 2024. The loss of forward coach James Rahilly to Geelong could also have a negative impact on their output.
The thing is, even with their obvious upsides, there’s a reason the Crows weren’t at the truly pointy end of things. They still have flaws. Despite being in the top three for hitouts, contested possessions and clearances, the only side that allowed more opposition clearances per game in 2023 were West Coast, who were the subject of a protracted public psychodrama because of how historically crap they were. Time and time again, opposition sides streamed out of stoppages against the Crows, subjecting an inexperienced defence to extreme pressure. The Crows held up reasonably well: they were league average for scoring shots conceded per opposition inside 50 entry. But it will also be without Nick Murray for a fair chunk of the 2024 season. You can argue if losing close games is luck or evidence of a bad mentality. But no one’s saying that losing a bunch of close games makes it easier to win them next year.
One final point on luck: the Crows had a soft run with injuries in 2023. Their best players played a lot of games. The knee injuries to Murray and Riley Thilthorpe show that, sooner or later, you’ll regress to the mean. The overall point I’m making is that progress isn’t linear. You can lose games despite being the “better team”, forward lines don’t run hot forever, and key guys don’t stay healthy indefinitely. With what’s expected to be an extremely competitive race for spots in the top eight, don’t be surprised if the Crows – despite an overall positive trajectory – don’t quite make it.
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Breakout player
Well, I was going to put Riley Thilthorpe – then he injured his knee on the eve of what was shaping up to be a crucial season. So instead, I’ll opt for Jake Soligo. Josh Rachele is more flashy. Luke Pedlar kicks more goals. But so far, neither have shown the composure and clean hands of the young Victorian. Now that he’s added a bit more size, the 21 year-old seems poised to spend more time in the middle. Crows fans like comparing Soligo to Tyson Edwards. If he becomes as good, he’ll be a hell of a player.
Most important player
Taylor Walker is an obvious candidate, and much of the Crows’ fortunes this season hinge on whether he can maintain his 2023 form. Matt Crouch provided much-needed inside grunt when he was recalled for the last six games of the season. But this one is easy. Adelaide’s most important player is Jordan Dawson. His arrival supercharged the Crows’ rebuild. His elite disposal is a major factor in Adelaide’s immense scoring power, while his leadership helped his teammates walk a little taller. Just three years after joining from Sydney, Dawson already sets the standard at West Lakes.
Biggest question to answer
Can Adelaide win the close games? Flip the result of just the Round 23 game against Sydney, and they’d have made the finals. Flip the result of that game and the game against Collingwood at the MCG where Dawson copped a late hit to the head, they’d have played a home final. Flip the results of all their games with a margin of 18 points or less, and they’d have ended up with 17 wins – and a home qualifying final. The Crows’ best is good enough to challenge any team. Their challenge is to be consistent across a long season, and raise their level in the most difficult moments.
What success looks like
The Crows have had their post-2017 meltdown. They’ve had their Banter Era. They’ve had their promising breakout year. No more excuses. No more settling for compliments after gallant defeats. They need to make the finals – ideally, with key contributions from their young players to assuage doubts they’re being carried by their veterans.
In a nutshell
Adelaide are an exciting, attacking side that creates lots of opportunities (and concedes a fair few to their opponents). Their season will most likely hinge on whether an inexperienced defence can stand up, and if their forward line can stay hot.
Agree? Think I’m a fool who’s biased against the Crows? Share your thoughts in the comments.